ElectricStorm Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Looks like the next system moving through could bring some storms and possibly some severe weather to parts of the southern plains and deep south. Models are looking okay for a January event and SPC is starting to mention 15% areas may be needed in upcoming outlooks. For now this doesn't look like anything major but I think we could see some smaller scale slight risk days, which isn't bad for January. Edited January 12, 2023 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 SPC has a decent sized Day 3 marginal up for Wednesday and a Day 4 slight risk up for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 What are you doing here?@ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Impressive hook developing at Heavener, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The Supercell North of Waldron, AR is MEAN! @OKwx_2001 @Neoncyclone @ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Yeah wouldn't be surprised to see that go tor warned soon. It's just now about to move into the marginal risk area. I noticed they added a 5% tornado area on the evening update, could be an interesting night for January standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 Home from work. Looks like western Arkansas got a 2" hail report. Storm mode looking less discrete than earlier... a squall/broken line might be trying to form in NE AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Upgrade to enhanced for tomorrow for wind, third enhanced risk of the month so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) Looks like there's an embedded supercell in this mini-MCS. It's looked like it could be a MCV for a few scans but this one makes it pretty obvious it's a supercell. Edited January 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Got some good thunder here. Line of storms heading in. Looks spring like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Early start down south. Tornado watch is now up for N A/E MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Early start down south. Tornado watch is now up for N A/E MS. 70/30%, crazy probabilities for morning standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) James Spann is up, tornado warning for Haleyville, AL. There's another heading towards Decatur. EDIT: Haleyville, AL now has a tornado nearby. Edited January 12, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 Loop of the tornado warning in in N KY via CVG’s TDWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 Discrete supercell in SE MS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Discrete supercell in SE MS Yeah, this one looks mean. It's heading towards Bassfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Ryan Hall Y'all is live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) SPC mentions a strong tornado is possible in SE MS/part of SW AL Mesoscale Discussion 0049 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Areas affected...central into eastern MS...west-central AL...southwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 17... Valid 121501Z - 121700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of tornadoes will continue this morning, including the possibility for a strong tornado. An additional tornado watch will likely need to be considered for far southeast MS into southwest and south-central AL later this morning. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and single-site 88D data show a broken band of embedded cluster and quasi-discrete supercells from 40 mi WSW of Tuscaloosa extending southwestward to 30 mi W of Hattiesburg. Analysis of upper-air RAOB data this morning shows relatively cool mid-level profiles with -15.7 deg C at Birmingham and -14.1 deg C at Jackson. Although surface dewpoints are only in the lower 60s over central AL and low-mid 60s in southern MS, the quality of the moisture through a 100-mb deep layer above the surface is notable when combined with the cool mid-level temperature profile. RAP forecast soundings this morning into the midday hours show buoyancy around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with large low-level hodographs. As a result, the mesoscale environment appears favorable for a tornado risk from eastern and southeastern MS northeastward into west-central AL over the next few couple of hours. A strong tornado is possible. The activity over southeast LA and southern MS will eventually shift eastward into far southeast MS and southwest AL towards the midday. Edited January 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 (edited) Tornado warning for the supercell that has been warned for awhile now has been updated to radar-confirmed. Edited January 12, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 VWP for BMX. Very strong low-level shear ahead of that tornadic supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I almost missed this, it went confirmed again, looks like it was a pretty big debris ball at one point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I almost missed this, it went confirmed again, looks like it was a pretty big debris ball at one point Still down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12, 2023 Impressive outbreak. From what I'm seeing on the models, parameters should actually decrease during the day where storm mode is most favorable. Hopefully that's the case. But for now it's ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 confirmed tornado near Greensboro AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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