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January 11-12, 2023 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak


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Looks like the next system moving through could bring some storms and possibly some severe weather to parts of the southern plains and deep south. Models are looking okay for a January event and SPC is starting to mention 15% areas may be needed in upcoming outlooks. 

For now this doesn't look like anything major but I think we could see some smaller scale slight risk days, which isn't bad for January. 

Edited by OKwx_2001
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  • The title was changed to January 11-12, 2023 | Possible Severe Weather
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SPC mentions a strong tornado is possible in SE MS/part of SW AL

MD 49 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

   Areas affected...central into eastern MS...west-central
   AL...southwest AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

   Valid 121501Z - 121700Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of tornadoes will continue this
   morning, including the possibility for a strong tornado.  An
   additional tornado watch will likely need to be considered for far
   southeast MS into southwest and south-central AL later this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and single-site 88D data show a broken
   band of embedded cluster and quasi-discrete supercells from 40 mi
   WSW of Tuscaloosa extending southwestward to 30 mi W of Hattiesburg.
   Analysis of upper-air RAOB data this morning shows relatively cool
   mid-level profiles with -15.7 deg C at Birmingham and -14.1 deg C at
   Jackson.  Although surface dewpoints are only in the lower 60s over
   central AL and low-mid 60s in southern MS, the quality of the
   moisture through a 100-mb deep layer above the surface is notable
   when combined with the cool mid-level temperature profile.  RAP
   forecast soundings this morning into the midday hours show buoyancy
   around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with large low-level hodographs.  As a
   result, the mesoscale environment appears favorable for a tornado
   risk from eastern and southeastern MS northeastward into
   west-central AL over the next few couple of hours.  A strong tornado
   is possible.  The activity over southeast LA and southern MS will
   eventually shift eastward into far southeast MS and southwest AL
   towards the midday.


Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • The title was changed to January 11-12, 2023 | Severe Weather

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