December 29-January 3, 2022-23 | Tornado Outbreak | Day 1 & 2 Enhanced Risk

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like an active, La Nina-esque pattern is going to be arriving to end 2022 and begin 2023. Longevity of the pattern is obviously in question, but there should be some severe weather in this pattern. Especially if moisture can return quicker than expected from this Arctic outbreak.

Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Impressively persistent series of systems entering through the west, and SE ridge to keep the systems from digging too far south.

Edited December 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

I've been noticing this for a while now, which areas could get the worst of the severe weather? Dixie Alley?

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I've been noticing this for a while now, which areas could get the worst of the severe weather? Dixie Alley?

Appears that way for now. Fits in with climatology, too. Still 6-8 days out so there's plenty of time for things to change. But if there is gonna be a severe weather threat, I'd bet on Dixie Alley.

[ElectricStorm]

1/2 is looking pretty interesting right now, and SPC is starting to mention it in the extended outlook. Long ways out of course but it's something to keep an eye on. The 0z GFS dewpoints are looking interesting further west too but we'll have to see if that lasts. Definitely watching it though 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

1/2 is looking pretty interesting right now, and SPC is starting to mention it in the extended outlook. Long ways out of course but it's something to keep an eye on. The 0z GFS dewpoints are looking interesting further west too but we'll have to see if that lasts. Definitely watching it though 

Yeah 0z GFS is pretty impressive. 

 

E TX doesn't have much directional shear except for the low-levels but you don't need that near-perfect supercell hodograph like we've had with the two previous events to get some nasty severe weather.

[bigben89]

This weather stinks...

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS keeps ramping it up for day 6. Especially noteworthy is the 500mb pattern on this run. It has a longwave trough over the Rockies with 2 distinct shortwaves.

 

Full discloser... this could easily be cherrypicked for a big reason for concern, but past runs have been much more subtle/weak with this scenario. However, the past 2, arguably 3 runs have had it to some extent. Here's GFS model trend. Impressive long-term consistency regarding a trough in this area.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

A big difference between GFS and Euro is how far south the cold front goes. Not a big difference regarding the western trough, but there's definitely a difference where the front is which is clearly tied to the strength of the previous system

[ElectricStorm]

Day 6 slight risk is up for 1/2. I think this has a lot of potential but we'll see how this plays out 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty system. I'm skeptical about the width of the warm sector though because it had a very wide warm sector with the last outbreak and then shrunk significantly. 

That said, what is unlikely to change is the position of the low relative to the warm sector. That didn't hold the last outbreak from being historically significant for December, but it's not ideal for high-end outbreaks. And we're getting into the time of year where those start to have historical precedent (e.g., late January 2017, early February 2008, late February 2012 and 2017, etc.), unlike December prior to 2021. 

But it seems like there's no escaping a severe threat for Louisiana, at least. And there does appear to be a signal for warm sector convection there. So, even though the low is several hundred miles away from the warm sector, there's plenty of reason for concern for tornadic storms imo. Even along the line.

 

CIPS analogs are very clear that severe weather happens with systems like this

Edited December 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

I think we'll see the slight risk expanded west in future outlooks, how far is still uncertain obviously but I definitely can see eastern TX and maybe SE OK getting a slight risk. I'm wondering if we could see a marginal risk up here in NE OK but we might be a little too far north to get anything strong. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

A new feature to test this coming severe/tornado season... machine learning probabilistic severe weather categories. I'm pretty sure this is at the very least 2022-new. I only found out about it last week so I have no idea how good it is.

http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/

Here's the afternoon update of MLP

[ClicheVortex2014]

Morning bow echo/mini-LEWP pushing into south-central MS

[Ingyball]

The ensembles and Euro have me interested. Good neg-tilt system over the Central Plains. The GFS/CMC eject a piece of energy much earlier, which sends the surface low further northwest in northwest Kansas. Not sure I buy that right now, but could get me in on the action if that happened. I think we'll see the low track through Central Kansas or even Oklahoma leaving me with cold rain. 

 

 

[Ingyball]

The main issue for severe weather on the GFS and Canadian is that the trough turns progressive after that small shortwave kicks out. Would love to see a negatively tilted trough like the Euro where the GFS is placed for severe weather in the Plains. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

25 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

The ensembles and Euro have me interested. Good neg-tilt system over the Central Plains. The GFS/CMC eject a piece of energy much earlier, which sends the surface low further northwest in northwest Kansas. Not sure I buy that right now, but could get me in on the action if that happened. I think we'll see the low track through Central Kansas or even Oklahoma leaving me with cold rain. 

 

 

Yeah we’re keeping an eye on this system here in case the southern track happens but there’s pessimism regarding rain chances, nonetheless snow, because we’ve been dry for over a month now. Even if we get some rain it won’t be much but it’s something.

Edited December 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Crazy how fast the weather can change. Monday and Tuesday has potential 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Better late than never but SREF has had 60 sigtor contour since it got in range. Pretty rare, especially for winter.

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Better late than never but SREF has had 60 sigtor contour since it got in range. Pretty rare, especially for winter.

Wow. That is not good. I think this may even affect the OV

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Wow. That is not good. I think this may even affect the OV

You're due for a HSLC squall. The pieces seem to be there. I have some concerns about the amount of instability, but I also know how seemingly unimportant that actually is to the OV for these kinds of events

Strong LLJ in the OV ahead of the front. Not gonna take much to get those winds to the surface.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mention of possibly strong tornadoes on day 3 is a pretty good reason to update the title I guess

[Iceresistance]

It's also shifting west as well, it used to be mostly in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Now it's going into Oklahoma and Texas. 

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Mention of possibly strong tornadoes on day 3 is a pretty good reason to update the title I guess

Oof. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The big key/uncertainty is the presence/window of opportunity for discrete convection. As usual.

The hodographs aren't as aesthetic/textbook as the previous outbreaks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The profiles are certainly enough in this case. It does make a difference because the storm motion will be more northerly/less easterly than the previous events which means any warm sector convection will run a greater risk of running out of the warm sector or being caught by the frontal squall. That said, it won't matter as much if the limiting factor is copious storm interference like the last event.

Edited January 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014