Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) It's elusive.. however, on occasion mother nature provides the opportunity for a widespread White Christmas. The magical imagery of White Christmas is woven into our American culture. Bing Crosby sings the traditional holiday classic, "I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas". George Bailey receives a Christmas miracle in the winter wonderland that is Bedford Falls. Dreams of Santa delivering an official Red Ryder, carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle were had to the backdrop of a flurry of flakes in a Christmas Story. Though this thread is speculative in nature, it warms my heart to discuss the possibility of a nostalgic White Christmas with the members of this forum. Long-range modeling is inconsistent and unreliable in determining the details of any one event, and as such, this speculative threat is not guaranteed to exist in the specified timeframe. With that being said, the upcoming pattern is favorable for the development of a large-scale, impactful winter storm. According to historical analogs, there are similarities between the upcoming pattern and that of December and January of 1995-'96. As a matter of fact, January 2nd, 1996 is listed as the #9 analog for next Friday, December 23rd. The winter of 1995-'96 had the influence of a moderate La Nina, similar to our current ENSO situation, with similar SSTs. Additionally, in December of 1995 the MJO rounded through phases 7 and 8, just as our current MJO rounded phases 7 and 8 at the beginning of December. Of course, those who were around to remember recall that the Blizzard of '96 was one of the most impactful winter storms of the last century, ranking #2 on the NESIS scale. If interested, you can read more about the Blizzard of '96 in the provided link. Blizzard of '96.pdf A storm of that intensity, impact, and composition is rare, and I am not suggesting that something similar will happen in a few weeks time, rather I believe the analogs are a fundamental justification of the speculative threat and timeframe. Teleconnections, another fundamental justification of a threat, are indicated to be favorable during this timeframe with a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. There looks to be no shortage of antecedent arctic air, and frequent reinforcement of additional arctic air. Utilizing the Bearing Sea Rule (BSR), there appears to be a signal for a potential system in the eastern U.S. around December 23rd. In terms of modeling, the 12z GEFS, EPS, and CMCE all indicate the presence of MSLP members in relatively close proximity to each other just off the east coast between the hours of 240 and 288. Furthermore, the 12z operational model guidance of the GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS indicated the presence of a large scale event developing around hour 240, with 500mb support. Regardless of the result, it will be a pleasure discussing this speculative threat with all of you! Happy Tracking and Happy Holidays! 12z EPS (Hours 240-288) 12z GEFS (Hours 240-288) 12z CMCE (Hours 240-288) Analogs (12/23/2022) Spoiler (-) NAO Forecast (-) AO Forecast (+) PNA Forecast 12z ECMWF (Hours 216-240) 12z GFS (Hours 240-288) 12z GDPS (Hours 216-240) 12z 500 MB Comparison Bearing Sea Rule (BSR) MJO (December 2022) Historic MJO (December 1995) ENSO Forecast (2022) ENSO (1995-'96) NESIS | Blizzard of '96 Edited January 6, 2023 by Penn State 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 An analysis of the ensembles at 00z shows a continued signal on the EPS and GEFS, though the CMCE emphasizes a more western route. One thing that I noticed was that some of the individual members on the EPS were quite strong. I saw two or three that were around 955-965mb. Something that worries me on the ensembles is the absence of a blocking high to the north. 00z EPS 00Z GEFS 00z CMCE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 There’s a ton of energy available comparing the model guidance at 00z. As expected, each model handles it differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 13, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2022 Watching 12z GFS....popcorn getting popped.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 13, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) https://media0.giphy.com/media/3xkNUy3Vh8QbPmJZjK/200.gif Edited December 13, 2022 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) 🤪 This fantasy snow map is not even close to complete.. Edited December 13, 2022 by Penn State 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looking at the 500mb.. the GFS failed to dig as much as the GDPS. Heights were better out west, trough sharper east on the GDPS too. There does seem to be some agreement on something intense at the moment, but that could change. Obviously this is all FWIW.. but sure is interesting to look at! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Yes Please!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 13, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 13, 2022 So.. It seems there's an agreement on the feature in the 500mb, but the placement makes all the difference. 2 feet of snow on GDPS.. and I might be able to get away with shades and flip flops if it were tranquil on the ECMWF. Big storm, no matter the placement at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 13, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just thought I'd leave this here....CPC agreeing that there is a chance.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 As we wait for the 00z suite.. 10 days out.. because that’s how I roll 🕶️ ..The NOAA 6-10 day analogs again picking up on ‘96. Analog #5 - 1/3/96 centered on 12/21/22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just had an opportunity to look over the 00z runs from last night. The 500mb has a much different look in terms of the trough axis and depth. It will be interesting to see how this evolves as our current storm departs. As of now, an intense storm still looks to be much on the table. However, a non-connection is just as plausible it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Gmao liked at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 12z GDPS.. different in that the emphasis is on a more southerly route as compared to the GFS. I suppose this comes down to orientation and dig of the trough, along with that push of arctic air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, Penn State said: 12z GDPS.. different in that the emphasis is on a more southerly route as compared to the GFS. I suppose this comes down to orientation and dig of the trough, along with that push of arctic air. Ahh the old W low track. Looks right to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 Here's the GEFS trend over the last 48 hours. If anything, I think it shows more of a consensus around an event. The MSLPs on the coast are favorable, but there's no high to the north, and that center of MSLPs over the Great Lakes doesn't inspire much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 12z ECMWF.. Quite the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 500mb comparison at 12z.. Not being sarcastic, I think these are relatively similar.. but the implication of the difference is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: The 500mb comparison at 12z.. Not being sarcastic, I think these are relatively similar.. but the implication of the difference is huge. Agree....considering how much energy is on display there and the butterfly effect, think that's pretty decent agreement among the majors. To add...what is happening off screen to the right (Atlantic Canada) will play a factor in how much height rise can occur along the east coast. I know you know, but snow lovers want that to be minimized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 14, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 14, 2022 Some of the members on the 12z EPS are insane.. Lots of 60s and 70s off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 12z GFS ens is pretty impressive with the cold and moisture during this time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 EPS looking favorable too. 12z GFS and 12z EPS are typically the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 46 minutes ago, StretchCT said: EPS looking favorable too. 12z GFS and 12z EPS are typically the most accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now