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December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm


Penn State

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It's elusive.. however, on occasion mother nature provides the opportunity for a widespread White Christmas. The magical imagery of White Christmas is woven into our American culture. Bing Crosby sings the traditional holiday classic, "I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas". George Bailey receives a Christmas miracle in the winter wonderland that is Bedford Falls. Dreams of Santa delivering an official Red Ryder, carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle were had to the backdrop of a flurry of flakes in a Christmas Story. Though this thread is speculative in nature, it warms my heart to discuss the possibility of a nostalgic White Christmas with the members of this forum. Long-range modeling is inconsistent and unreliable in determining the details of any one event, and as such, this speculative threat is not guaranteed to exist in the specified timeframe. With that being said, the upcoming pattern is favorable for the development of a large-scale, impactful winter storm. According to historical analogs, there are similarities between the upcoming pattern and that of December and January of 1995-'96. As a matter of fact, January 2nd, 1996 is listed as the #9 analog for next Friday, December 23rd. The winter of 1995-'96 had the influence of a moderate La Nina, similar to our current ENSO situation, with similar SSTs. Additionally, in December of 1995 the MJO rounded through phases 7 and 8, just as our current MJO rounded phases 7 and 8 at the beginning of December. Of course, those who were around to remember recall that the Blizzard of '96 was one of the most impactful winter storms of the last century, ranking #2 on the NESIS scale. If interested, you can read more about the Blizzard of '96 in the provided link. Blizzard of '96.pdf A storm of that intensity, impact, and composition is rare, and I am not suggesting that something similar will happen in a few weeks time, rather I believe the analogs are a fundamental justification of the speculative threat and timeframe. Teleconnections, another fundamental justification of a threat, are indicated to be favorable during this timeframe with a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. There looks to be no shortage of antecedent arctic air, and frequent reinforcement of additional arctic air. Utilizing the Bearing Sea Rule (BSR), there appears to be a signal for a potential system in the eastern U.S. around December 23rd. In terms of modeling, the 12z GEFS, EPS, and CMCE all indicate the presence of MSLP members in relatively close proximity to each other just off the east coast between the hours of 240 and 288. Furthermore, the 12z operational model guidance of the GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS indicated the presence of a large scale event developing around hour 240, with 500mb support. Regardless of the result, it will be a pleasure discussing this speculative threat with all of you! Happy Tracking and Happy Holidays! 

12z EPS (Hours 240-288)

814615215_12zEPS(Hours240-288).gif.35d3d89f028e957670eeec780f63f635.gif

12z GEFS (Hours 240-288)

1951776948_12zGEFS(Hours240-288).gif.08757220e79c49c519b2b9c5163db8e3.gif

12z CMCE (Hours 240-288)

957152034_12zCMCE(Hours240-288).gif.084bd991665b84113b5ecc88e5879522.gif

Analogs (12/23/2022)

2061900754_NOAAAnalogs12-23.png.23b522491e56cb77588bcf30ddfdfa88.png

Spoiler

(-) NAO Forecast 

1477387171_NAOForecast.png.589e70e997801135d589fd12f2c59bac.png

(-) AO Forecast 

1165572281_AOForecast.png.8c732ac2d529f234054313a0b68847a9.png

(+) PNA Forecast

1353636997_PNAForecast.png.3c584ebe98417e073a76a876391153d6.png

12z ECMWF (Hours 216-240)

385111674_12zECMWF(Hours216-240).gif.15da50367dcf91790a9e2e662976b0c1.gif

12z GFS (Hours 240-288)

1090185030_12zGFS(Hours240-288).gif.c62aefcad660f0d83c7865973ad06bd1.gif

12z GDPS (Hours 216-240)

1577128130_12zGDPS(Hours216-240).gif.784957b565881fe1264d9366936508e7.gif

12z 500 MB Comparison 

1543380106_12z500MBComparison(ECMWFGDPSGFS).gif.8ec44b6b7b7d8ede27253e4a91047bb6.gif

Bearing Sea Rule (BSR)

1328454986_BSR12-23.png.c6d575e192976b6e0d02e224529aa6d3.png

MJO (December 2022)

2005828475_MJODecember2022.png.3a5e225db96f0366d772c31635ea4c79.png

Historic MJO (December 1995)

64590217_HistoricMJO(December1995).png.6dcb25a8ad74212b317c4860565b3555.png

ENSO Forecast (2022)

1827110891_ENSO2022.png.b782ec572152e8ed39837a0e595e9e21.png

ENSO (1995-'96)

1772101882_HistoricENSO(1995-1996).png.7e695e5d897cd472ef7e5023cad58a6e.png

NESIS | Blizzard of '96 

950922080_NESISBlizzardof96.png.70f328166d7db8705feecbffebd2b49f.png

 

 

 

Edited by Penn State
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An analysis of the ensembles at 00z shows a continued signal on the EPS and GEFS, though the CMCE emphasizes a more western route. One thing that I noticed was that some of the individual members on the EPS were quite strong. I saw two or three that were around 955-965mb. Something that worries me on the ensembles is the absence of a blocking high to the north.

00z EPS

132663512_00zEPS.gif.6b831cbf8b05cedeebd6d42211d799eb.gif

00Z GEFS

741826985_00zGEFS.gif.0d80b755e4e12797a99dd65e2890a7f0.gif

00z CMCE

722435669_00zCMCE.gif.851319cebf0bd116ddfcd330a5be2dc1.gif

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  • The title was changed to December 22-25, 2022 | Christmas Winter Storm Speculation
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Looking at the 500mb.. the GFS failed to dig as much as the GDPS. Heights were better out west, trough sharper east on the GDPS too. There does seem to be some agreement on something intense at the moment, but that could change. Obviously this is all FWIW.. but sure is interesting to look at! 

429646473_12z500MBComparison(GFSvsGDPS).gif.a44ddb725ef005dfa8b9f0823e931d09.gif

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So.. It seems there's an agreement on the feature in the 500mb, but the placement makes all the difference. 2 feet of snow on GDPS.. and I might be able to get away with shades and flip flops if it were tranquil on the ECMWF. Big storm, no matter the placement at the moment. 

1433496002_12z500MBComparison(AllModels).gif.ef9800155223f768d60192dd4494dae8.gif

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  • The title was changed to December 22-24, 2022 | Christmas Winter Storm Speculation
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Just had an opportunity to look over the 00z runs from last night. The 500mb has a much different look in terms of the trough axis and depth. It will be interesting to see how this evolves as our current storm departs. As of now, an intense storm still looks to be much on the table. However, a non-connection is just as plausible it would seem. 

1953610154_00z1214500mbRoundup.gif.ccc9930e28aca00e97ec28fe9e7ca707.gif

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12z GDPS.. different in that the emphasis is on a more southerly route as compared to the GFS. I suppose this comes down to orientation and dig of the trough, along with that push of arctic air. 

988208997_12zGDPS(1214)Hours180-240.gif.6e0947c14905c180896c923567280495.gif

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29 minutes ago, Penn State said:

12z GDPS.. different in that the emphasis is on a more southerly route as compared to the GFS. I suppose this comes down to orientation and dig of the trough, along with that push of arctic air. 

988208997_12zGDPS(1214)Hours180-240.gif.6e0947c14905c180896c923567280495.gif

Ahh the old W low track. Looks right to me. 

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Here's the GEFS trend over the last 48 hours. If anything, I think it shows more of a consensus around an event. The MSLPs on the coast are favorable, but there's no high to the north, and that center of MSLPs over the Great Lakes doesn't inspire much. 

48214429_GEFS48HourTrend.gif.8d2789444f33a89fa0f019ca8dd389e0.gif

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5 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The 500mb comparison at 12z.. Not being sarcastic, I think these are relatively similar.. but the implication of the difference is huge.  

1471588190_12z500mbComparison(1214).gif.f4aa3264fbc8bce673ab98c71bf26ba9.gif

Agree....considering how much energy is on display there and the butterfly effect, think that's pretty decent agreement among the majors. To add...what is happening off screen to the right (Atlantic Canada) will play a factor in how much height rise can occur along the east coast. I know you know, but snow lovers want that to be minimized.

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