Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 8, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) As we anxiously await the arrival of winter's chill, there has been much speculation about the timing and intensity of the cold. The operational models have shown inconsistency, and winter weather enthusiasts have been on a roller coaster ride of highs and lows pertaining the potential of white hurricanes in what may culminate in a favorable pattern for eastern U.S. snow and cold. This timeframe is speculated to be the pivot point, where a large scale event moves through the mid-west and ushers in the cold and potential for larger events in the future. In terms of teleconnections, we have a favorable -NAO and -AO; however we have been and currently are fighting the -PNA. What has been intriguing is a recent model trend that brings mixed wintry precipitation further into Northern New England and parts of the upper Mid-Atlantic. This seems to be a result of a low that generates further south and east, strengthens, and moves northeast along the Atlantic Coast. The GEFS MSLP members depict this development and movement. Will the trend continue? Will this be the pivot point; the gateway, to larger events in the future? All will be determined in time! Until then, happy tracking! Spoiler 12z GFS (Hours 144-222) 12z ECMWF (Hours 144-222) 12z GDPS (Hours 144-222) Edited December 8, 2022 by Penn State 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 8, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 8, 2022 The 18z GFS continues to lean into the more wintry solution.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 8, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 8, 2022 I’ll place this fantasy snow map right here to add to your holiday cheer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 There's some meat on the bone here. Storm preceding this will probably have a say on what happens here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Im going to bag humbug this...... Maybe it will help.... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 8, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 8, 2022 I mean.. this is the right direction for sure. There’s a member with MSLP of 96 right there in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gonna need the storm ahead of this to be slow enough to pin this one back, forcing it to occlude, pinching off warmth in the 850mb layer, and redevelop on the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 Last 4 days of GFS runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 9, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 9, 2022 Overnight, the GFS had a statement run for the interior.. Wow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Bah humbug I say! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Bah humbug I say! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 Could easily see this slide south of me believe it or not. Nothing crazy on the EPS. kinda hoping anything big holds off till I have my foundation capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 9, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS, EPS, and CMCE all painting a similar picture.. although there are differences. I guess my question is, how far south does the secondary (transfer?) develop? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gmao on board for a hop to coast/winter scenario 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Poco said: Gmao on board for a hop to coast/winter scenario Haha yes! The GMAO model is back! Good to see you again Poc, as always your insight is greatly appreciated and valued. this system has some pretty wild potential if all comes to fruition. High latitude blocking will always do wonders for some. The models are starting to pick up on the strong west based -nao and 50/50 block. low trying to cut runs into a roadblock with nowhere to go but south and redevelop off the coast. Models have been consistently pressing this main system further south which allows a quicker and further south coastal take over. As always, it’s something to keep an eye on, but this has some serious potential! Been a while since I had a legit white Christmas, and this may certainly do it for some of us. Below is the run to run difference. Notice the -nao further press west and south and the 50/50 more tucked towards se canada. This forces the central US low to swing south and redevelop. The gefs and even eps have been trending better and better for snow along the EC Edited December 9, 2022 by PA road DAWG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 9, 2022 Looking like some fun times ahead, kicking things off on Sunday...which is a s/w that feeds into our 50/50 for this timeframe. Finally time to put on those snow tires I've been procrastinating on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gem had a nice look at 12z gfs has continually pulled the continental energy like taffy *last 6 runs It’s playing to it bias but a possibility given the set up none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Haha gfs is a southern slider dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Poco said: Gem had a nice look at 12z gfs has continually pulled the continental energy like taffy *last 6 runs It’s playing to it bias but a possibility given the set up none the less Always a concern with such ample blocking upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gefs also much flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Haha gfs is a southern slider dud. The ocean storm keeps trending stronger, now it's trying to shred this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 The models appear to be struggling with the energy that apparently wants to keeps driving down through SE Canada. These potent shortwaves keep knocking down the heights in front of approaching systems, making it hard to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 9, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 9, 2022 Good bit of spread in the members of the GEFS, but definitely a step back from previous solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, MaineJay said: The ocean storm keeps trending stronger, now it's trying to shred this storm. I noticed that too. It seems to keep the cold air better entrenched in all of the Northeast, but it also leads to that initial wave of precept just drying out as it crosses the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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