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December 15-17, 2022 | Winter Storm

Penn State

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As we anxiously await the arrival of winter's chill, there has been much speculation about the timing and intensity of the cold. The operational models have shown inconsistency, and winter weather enthusiasts have been on a roller coaster ride of highs and lows pertaining the potential of white hurricanes in what may culminate in a favorable pattern for eastern U.S. snow and cold. This timeframe is speculated to be the pivot point, where a large scale event moves through the mid-west and ushers in the cold and potential for larger events in the future. In terms of teleconnections, we have a favorable -NAO and -AO; however we have been and currently are fighting the -PNA. What has been intriguing is a recent model trend that brings mixed wintry precipitation further into Northern New England and parts of the upper Mid-Atlantic. This seems to be a result of a low that generates further south and east, strengthens, and moves northeast along the Atlantic Coast. The GEFS MSLP members depict this development and movement. Will the trend continue? Will this be the pivot point; the gateway, to larger events in the future? All will be determined in time! Until then, happy tracking! 



12z GFS (Hours 144-222)


12z ECMWF (Hours 144-222)


12z GDPS (Hours 144-222)



Edited by Penn State
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44 minutes ago, Poco said:

Gmao on board for a hop to coast/winter scenario 




Haha yes!   The GMAO model is back!  Good to see you again Poc, as always your insight is greatly appreciated and valued.  

this system has some pretty wild potential if all comes to fruition.   High latitude blocking will always do wonders for some. The models are starting to pick up on the strong west based -nao and 50/50 block.  low trying to cut runs into a roadblock with nowhere to go but south and redevelop off the coast.  Models have been consistently pressing this main system further south which allows a quicker and further south coastal take over.  As always, it’s something to keep an eye on, but this has some serious potential!  Been a while since I had a legit white Christmas, and this may certainly do it for some of us.  

Below is the run to run difference.  Notice the -nao further press west and south and the 50/50 more tucked towards se canada.  This forces the central US low to swing south and redevelop.  The gefs and even eps have been trending better and better for snow along the EC



Edited by PA road DAWG
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Looking like some fun times ahead, kicking things off on Sunday...which is a s/w that feeds into our 50/50 for this timeframe.

Finally time to put on those snow tires I've been procrastinating on...

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The models appear to be struggling with the energy that apparently wants to keeps driving down through SE Canada.  

  These potent shortwaves keep knocking down the heights in front of approaching systems, making it hard to amplify.


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17 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The ocean storm keeps trending stronger, now it's trying to shred this storm.

I noticed that too. It seems to keep the cold air better entrenched in all of the Northeast, but it also leads to that initial wave of precept just drying out as it crosses the Apps.


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