December 15-17, 2022 | Winter Storm

[Penn State]

As we anxiously await the arrival of winter's chill, there has been much speculation about the timing and intensity of the cold. The operational models have shown inconsistency, and winter weather enthusiasts have been on a roller coaster ride of highs and lows pertaining the potential of white hurricanes in what may culminate in a favorable pattern for eastern U.S. snow and cold. This timeframe is speculated to be the pivot point, where a large scale event moves through the mid-west and ushers in the cold and potential for larger events in the future. In terms of teleconnections, we have a favorable -NAO and -AO; however we have been and currently are fighting the -PNA. What has been intriguing is a recent model trend that brings mixed wintry precipitation further into Northern New England and parts of the upper Mid-Atlantic. This seems to be a result of a low that generates further south and east, strengthens, and moves northeast along the Atlantic Coast. The GEFS MSLP members depict this development and movement. Will the trend continue? Will this be the pivot point; the gateway, to larger events in the future? All will be determined in time! Until then, happy tracking! 

Spoiler

12z GFS (Hours 144-222)

12z ECMWF (Hours 144-222)

12z GDPS (Hours 144-222)

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Penn State

[Penn State]

The 18z GFS continues to lean into the more wintry solution.. 

[Penn State]

I’ll place this fantasy snow map right here to add to your holiday cheer.. 

[MaineJay]

There's some meat on the bone here.  Storm preceding this will probably have a say on what happens here.

[MDBlueridge]

Im going to bag humbug this......

Maybe it will help....

[Penn State]

I mean.. this is the right direction for sure. There’s a member with MSLP of 96 right there in the Delmarva. 

[MaineJay]

Gonna need the storm ahead of this to be slow enough to pin this one back, forcing it to occlude, pinching off warmth in the 850mb layer, and redevelop on the triple point.

[MaineJay]

Last 4 days of GFS runs.

[Penn State]

Overnight, the GFS had a statement run for the interior.. Wow! 

[MDBlueridge]

Bah humbug I say!

[MaineJay]

22 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Bah humbug I say!

[MaineJay]

Could easily see this slide south of me believe it or not.

Nothing crazy on the EPS. kinda hoping anything big holds off till I have my foundation capped.

[Penn State]

GEFS, EPS, and CMCE all painting a similar picture.. although there are differences. I guess my question is, how far south does the secondary (transfer?) develop? 

[Poco]

Gmao on board for a hop to coast/winter scenario 

[PA road DAWG]

44 minutes ago, Poco said:

Gmao on board for a hop to coast/winter scenario 

Haha yes!   The GMAO model is back!  Good to see you again Poc, as always your insight is greatly appreciated and valued.  

this system has some pretty wild potential if all comes to fruition.   High latitude blocking will always do wonders for some. The models are starting to pick up on the strong west based -nao and 50/50 block.  low trying to cut runs into a roadblock with nowhere to go but south and redevelop off the coast.  Models have been consistently pressing this main system further south which allows a quicker and further south coastal take over.  As always, it’s something to keep an eye on, but this has some serious potential!  Been a while since I had a legit white Christmas, and this may certainly do it for some of us.  
 

Below is the run to run difference.  Notice the -nao further press west and south and the 50/50 more tucked towards se canada.  This forces the central US low to swing south and redevelop.  The gefs and even eps have been trending better and better for snow along the EC

Edited December 9, 2022 by PA road DAWG

[telejunkie]

Looking like some fun times ahead, kicking things off on Sunday...which is a s/w that feeds into our 50/50 for this timeframe.

Finally time to put on those snow tires I've been procrastinating on...

[Poco]

 

[Poco]

Gem had a nice look at 12z 

gfs has continually pulled the continental energy like taffy 

*last 6 runs 

It’s playing to it bias but a possibility given the set up none the less 

[PA road DAWG]

Haha gfs is a southern slider dud.  

[PA road DAWG]

4 minutes ago, Poco said:

Gem had a nice look at 12z 

gfs has continually pulled the continental energy like taffy 

*last 6 runs 

It’s playing to it bias but a possibility given the set up none the less 

Always a concern with such ample blocking upstream 

[PA road DAWG]

Gefs also much flatter 

[MaineJay]

5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Haha gfs is a southern slider dud.  

The ocean storm keeps trending stronger, now it's trying to shred this storm.

[MaineJay]

The models appear to be struggling with the energy that apparently wants to keeps driving down through SE Canada.  

  These potent shortwaves keep knocking down the heights in front of approaching systems, making it hard to amplify.

 

[Penn State]

Good bit of spread in the members of the GEFS, but definitely a step back from previous solutions.

[Bradjl2009]

17 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The ocean storm keeps trending stronger, now it's trying to shred this storm.

I noticed that too. It seems to keep the cold air better entrenched in all of the Northeast, but it also leads to that initial wave of precept just drying out as it crosses the Apps.