December 9-11th, 2022 | Wintry weather potential

[MaineJay]

I know there's some angst as we step into meteorological winter.  Yes we are starting damp and warm, but that doesn't mean winter precip chances are nil.

  On a personal note, almost all my work is outside for the next month or so, so I'm not necessarily cheering anything on, but I'm not dismissing everything either.

   With amplified, developing "blocky" flow, small perturbations in modeled can quickly pick up "errors", leading to spurious solutions.  We've seen significant shifts by hour 120 to make any run out that far suspect.

  This threat isn't the most sexy, as it's a subtle shortwave progressing through an eastern CONUS ridge.  Cold air will not be entrenched, and any available cold is fairly marginal.  This would be a dynamic driven, with sharp forcing in the mid levels, with cold being drawn in from the NE.

At the surface, the GFS and ECMWF are remarkably similar, especially at 6 days out.

I'm not going to try and make a guess at which way we go from here, just gonna wait and see.  Figured it's worth a little banter.

[MaineJay]

And note that the thread is for "Wintry weather", not calling for a nor'easter or anything. There's just some wiggle room 6 days out 

[JDClapper]

Been seeing GFS tease something like this in its long long range, off and on. Interesting to see Euro show it. 12z EPS for interior PA, looks like a 20-33% chance of some white.

 

[JDClapper]

Some 12 EPS stuff.

 

[JDClapper]

Some 12 EPS stuff.

 

... not sure why this posted twice.

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by JDClapper

[MaineJay]

I believe tides will be running on the high side.

Should be some solid CAD going on, but we will be struggling with the temp details for days, if this stays near to how it's currently modeled, it's own struggle.

[JDClapper]

14 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Been seeing GFS tease something like this in its long long range, off and on. Interesting to see Euro show it. 12z EPS for interior PA, looks like a 20-33% chance of some white.

 

0z ups the chances to like 25-40%. 

[JDClapper]

Wpc latest, day 6.

Chance of 0.25+ snow/sleet qpf

[MaineJay]

Models seen to be keeping this largely on the mid Atlantic. But a follow up wave moves in almost immediately behind, and that one shows more promise further north.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Wpc latest, day 6.

Chance of 0.25+ snow/sleet qpf

It doesn't matter as much for your area as it stands on the euro now but for those more east in SENY and the like, gotta hope that the euro eases with shredding/ shunting this storm basically SE once it hits the NY/PA border. That would be a torcherous outcome for people in my area. On the other hand gfs is way warm so we'll see.

 

[MaineJay]

Models are really struggling more than usual.

GYX only sentence that really matters.

The pattern is just too uncertain at
this time to piece together further details about this end of week
system.

 

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

It doesn't matter as much for your area as it stands on the euro now but for those more east in SENY and the like, gotta hope that the euro eases with shredding/ shunting this storm basically SE once it hits the NY/PA border. That would be a torcherous outcome for people in my area. On the other hand gfs is way warm so we'll see.

 

The 0z big 3 all offer a different choice.

GFS - Warm, farther north

CMC - South, dry

Euro - Middle ground, chillier and whiter.

🤷‍♂️

[JDClapper]

51 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Models are really struggling more than usual.

GYX only sentence that really matters.

The pattern is just too uncertain at
this time to piece together further details about this end of week
system.

 

Hmm, Ukie/CMC vs GFS/Euro (generally speaking)

Wonder if 12z will clear up a little of the fuzziness? 🥴

[JDClapper]

Pulling in some long range 12z NAM pre-system 500s. 0z Thu compares.

 

[MaineJay]

Almost looks like an inverted trof in the GFS. The storm might even get pulled back by the trailing energy.  If that BDCF comes in sharper, might push the main axis SW, and if it's has enough cold, could focus on the Poconos region.

 

It's a super interesting setup despite the lack of snow.  Could be a protracted period of precip for someone.

[JDClapper]

Well, GFS is ticking south, but still very wet, not much white. CMC has precip into PA now, with some white to boot. So, encouraging signs at 12z for this region.

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Almost looks like an inverted trof in the GFS. The storm might even get pulled back by the trailing energy.  If that BDCF comes in sharper, might push the main axis SW, and if it's has enough cold, could focus on the Poconos region.

 

It's a super interesting setup despite the lack of snow.  Could be a protracted period of precip for someone.

Yeah, CMC close to doing the same.. but just misses.

[MaineJay]

Follow up wave is so close in the GFS, that I'm tempted to just extend the dates on the thread for.  We assess after the 12z suite completes..

[JDClapper]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Follow up wave is so close in the GFS, that I'm tempted to just extend the dates on the thread for.  We assess after the 12z suite completes..

-Nao doing its thang and clogging up and slowing down the highway. 👍

[MaineJay]

Sheesh, this is like one week.

[MaineJay]

Geez, the Ukie is even slower than the GFS. It even has an extra lead wave that wants to really throw the brakes on. By 120, the differences are pretty stark.

Ukie has the wave near Iowa

GFS is stronger with it in Ohio.

 

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Models , more specially gfs and to some extent cmc seem to be all over the place. There is so many pieces and variables as to what evolves they have no idea where a storm is gonna pop and what time period, there is just a lot of energy and variability everywhere. I don't expect much to be known outside of maybe say 3 days at least until this transition period is over but even then we will have a highly anomalous pattern that will probably not be easy on models. Wild ride though, just hope it swings our way. That said check out the CMC at 240: 

[MaineJay]

ECMWF looking like it's trying to slow things down.

[MaineJay]

Lead wave trying to make a little more cold, a little more accessible.

 Definitely more like today's ukie than GFS.

More cold likely leads to a more southerly solution, but *should* boost snow chances for some. Currently thinking the best overlap for precip and cold might be Poconos and elevated areas towards North VA.

[Poco]

The blocking that is setting up is quite the ingredient