Hurricane Nicole | Peak 980mb 75mph |Post Tropical 1001mb 30mph| Final advisory issued

[StretchCT]

NHC has bumped this up to 90% chance in 5 days, 70% chance in two.  Low pressure isn't exactly formed yet despite some swirls north of PR/DR.

It almost presents more like an ULL on the vis.

But you can see the ULL is over Hispaniola.  Interesting how this decaying frontal boundary spawned 97L as well as you can see on a wider look.  The "outflow" from this 98L's system is shearing 97L for now. Then there's a tiny ULL moving W from Bermuda

Edited November 11, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

GFS Ens have been hinting at this for days, which is why I labeled it initially as an east coast threat.

Not much in the way of hurricane models yet as this was just designated.

Edited November 6, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Convergence and divergence not lined up yet.  Not even close. Divergence is yellow

 

[StretchCT]

Looking at first run of hurricane models.  Pretty good alignment with GFS, HWRF, HMON. Hits around Stuart/Jensen Beach/Hutchinson Isle.  Windy side from there north to Space Coast.  Keep in mind this is only 4 days out.

UKMET also similar position.

Edited November 6, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

I'll add that having a 1042 HP building in from the north is definitely going to make coastal flooding worse.

 

[StretchCT]

Bumped to 80%

[StretchCT]

Euro not making much of this.  Just TS force gusts. Even in Maine/NS where the pressure is 977.  Seems light.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not that strong of a storm, but there's going to be a significant pressure gradient that may make this storm unusually damaging in terms of storm surge

 

[StretchCT]

There have been enough obs for the NHC to determine there is a circulation and that there are 40kt winds to the east of the center to name this storm, but as subtropical.  Florida definitely in play for this one, and I've seen predictions from some mets of a low end cat 2 to just a 40mph hit at landfall.  NHC intensity calls for a peak of 70mph and a conversion to full tropical, with it not out of the question that it reaches 65kts and becomes a hurricane.  Waters are very warm in the area so its just a matter of how quickly it becomes organized.   Current shear is favorable and 250-200mb winds don't seem that strong out in the future.

Spoiler

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the 
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better 
organized.  Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last 
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently 
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as 
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east 
of the center.  Moderate to deep convection has also increased a 
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification 
of ST1.5.  Given these data, the system is now being classified as a 
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion 
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward, 
or 330/12 kt.  Model guidance indicates that the system should turn 
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward 
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a 
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic 
coast.  In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United 
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude 
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp 
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the 
vicinity of Florida.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement 
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly 
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. 

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days, 
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast 
intensification, at least not initially.  For the first couple of 
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows 
the GFS global model solution.  Although Nicole is likely to 
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a 
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core 
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant 
intensification is possible.  For now, the NHC intensity forecast 
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it 
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of 
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid.  It's not out 
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially 
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas.  It 
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate 
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant 
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the 
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the 
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1.  Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its 
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal 
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf 
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the 
upcoming week.

2.  Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves 
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida 
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous 
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of 
those areas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the 
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for 
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 25.5N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 26.3N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 28.2N  72.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 27.6N  74.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 60H  09/1800Z 26.8N  77.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 29.2N  83.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 32.8N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

 

[StretchCT]

You can see the beginnings of the S shape on the sat

1. 

 

[StretchCT]

Now forecast to become a hurricane. Just may take a while to organize.

INIT  07/1500Z 26.2N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 12H  08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 24H  08/1200Z 27.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 36H  09/0000Z 27.6N  74.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  09/1200Z 26.9N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 26.6N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 27.3N  81.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 29.4N  83.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 33.3N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

Euro and GFS both have this as symmetrical warm core to start.  UKIE and HWRF too  https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[StretchCT]

Wide envelope.

Edited November 7, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Latest update still has 75mph predicted.  NHC notes the dry air around and how it's going to take time to build.  You can play with the various models ( I was using Tidbits) and their RH at 700mb and see how by hr 48 the dry air is just in the center and the moist air is that familiar donut.  Even this shot still has the winds higher up not coupled with the surface

Spoiler

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Nicole's structure has changed little today. There is some limited
convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and
thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern
Atlantic.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
been investigating the system this afternoon and has found
flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about
80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band
well removed from the center.  The aircraft reported that the
pressure is down to around 1000 mb.  The initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and
earlier satellite wind data.

Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt.  A northwestward
motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around
the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday,
Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a
strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States.
This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday.  After that time, the ridge is
forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn
west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves
over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is
expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the
forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track
forecast is relatively high.  The new NHC track foreast is similar
to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track
slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4.
There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the
GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is
near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.

Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest
that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening.
Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should
allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and
this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in
gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole.  Most of the
dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a
smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24
to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification
is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to
the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near
hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest
Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind
speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and
near the most recent dynamical hurricane models.  Regardless of
Nicole's exact intensity, the storm's large size due to an enhanced
pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1.  Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning has been issued.

2.  Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and
Georgia beginning by early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible across much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.  The storm surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 26.6N  70.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 12H  08/0600Z 27.3N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 24H  08/1800Z 27.6N  73.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 36H  09/0600Z 27.0N  75.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  09/1800Z 26.7N  77.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 27.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 28.0N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1800Z 31.2N  82.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1800Z 37.5N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[so_whats_happening]

Yea im not sure it reaches hurricane status it will be close but would like to see some rather decent organization take place tonight (tuesday evening) for it really give me that hurricane feeling. It is finally starting to develop deep convection around CoC. I think the Cape Canaveral region needs to watch this though. Decent rainfall though up most of the east coast as many areas need it.

[so_whats_happening]

On 11/6/2022 at 7:42 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not that strong of a storm, but there's going to be a significant pressure gradient that may make this storm unusually damaging in terms of storm surge

 

You can already see that fetch going strong. Not many times you see this type of situation arise.

[StretchCT]

Looks to me like it's transitioning to tropical. Starting to separate from other systems, driving its own car. 

[StretchCT]

Northeast, especially coastal areas should keep an eye out on this one.  46kt gusts here take down trees pretty easily but at least the leaves are off.

 

[Burr]

Low shear, Gulf Stream… if I were a betting guy, I’d expect it to overperform.

[Burr]

NHC 10am discussion:

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022

1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found 700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of 40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to 45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Burr

[StretchCT]

Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

Nicole was 998mb at 7pm est yesterday and 992 at 7am today

 

Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
700 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022
 
...NICOLE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Edited November 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Mission 9 has found 96mph winds on a dropsonde just under 5000 feet.

 

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

Apparently there's a threat for severe weather and tornadoes along the east coast as well as just your standard 50mph gusts.