Moderators Hiramite Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 It's that time of year again, let's get started. An early start to the season....from CLE 9/23, in part. Probably similar AFD around the Lakes. Round One: Quote This first real blast of a cool air coming over the Great Lakes will ignite the lake effect machine with considerable cloudiness and light to moderate rain showers downwind of the lakes starting Sunday night and lasting for several days. Monday will be gray and dreary kind of day with periodic rain showers area wide with the more concentrated and perhaps organized bands of lake effect rain showers will be over north central and northeast Ohio as well as NW PA. We will have plenty of lake induced instability for the potential for scattered thunder as well coming off the lake. Where lake effect bands persist, we could see some localized heavy rainfall possible. Early fall lake effect rain shower setups can be very efficient rainfall makes and be sneaky for hydro or minor flooding concerns. Round Two: Quote A secondary cold front or surface trough will move through by Tuesday morning with a reinforcing shot of cooler air. We will eventually see the 850 mb temperatures aloft fall to near 0C by Tuesday which will continue the energize the lake effect rain showers and cloudy skies. The latest 00z forecast guidance is showing the the upper level trough may linger through Wednesday before kicking out of our region. We will continue to see scattered lake effect rain showers for the Snowbelt region through the middle of next week before this weather pattern finally moves out. Over the duration of several days regarding this lake effect rain event, we may have some localized rainfall totals of several inches. The GPDS, as of 9/23 0Z, is the most generous with QPF throughout this period. Man, this sure would be nice in Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted September 25, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25, 2022 Crazy amounts of LE rain forecasted along the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted October 21, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbelted Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 NWS CLE .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper-level pattern becomes more active for mid to late week, with a series of troughs pivoting across the area through the end of the week. Still seeing signs of a decent setup for prolonged lake effect snow that will need to be monitored over the next few days. It`s possible that the first significant accumulations of the season will occur across the snowbelt region, primarily late Wednesday through Thursday. 😕 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 13, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 13, 2022 First pretty LE snow of the season. 1.7” on the table. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 15, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 15, 2022 The ingredients are coming together for a major LES in the areas NE of Erie and Ontario. Early season lake warmth coupled with a long duration cold SW wind could mean feet of snow for the Buffalo and Watertown areas of NY. No snow maps yet, but some strong wording from the NWS/BUF. Quote .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. WSWatches have been hoisted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Gotta love NWS Buffalo point and click... wish mby had these wordings: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 16, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 16, 2022 First snow maps coming into range. This is only thru Friday 7PM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 16, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 16, 2022 Forecast for Buffalo remains on-track. From BUF... Once this band sets up, it will remain fairly stationary late Thursday night and through the day Friday with the synoptic pattern forcing a general southwest flow. The strong convergence leading to impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow oriented along the long axis of the lake to become very strong with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour. Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will not oscillate much later Thursday night and through Friday and into Friday night snowfall totals will easily reach several feet this period. The highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area, including downtown and towards the airport where a 240 wind flow will direct the snowband. And for later this weekend, this may make the Bills/Browns game interesting to watch.... Later Saturday into Saturday night is when the well developed band appears to be most favored to lift into far western Niagara county or even Canada as sharper re-enforcing upper level and sfc trough dig across the western Great Lakes. This shift to the west of the band is brief though as sharp trough crosses on Sunday. Strong nw flow will sweep southward across both lakes, resulting in brief but heavy snow at times as the main band sweeps quickly southward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) I'm confused/surprised there's not more talk about the fact that 4 feet of snow may fall on Buffalo. Edited November 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Well see how many more interest this thread gets once the snow starts really pilling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 Not to be trusted at this point... just for posterity. 10:1 ratio has ~57" max Kuchera has ~67" max Composite reflectivity shows just how extreme the snowfall rates would be. Textbook high-end long fetch LES event. Over the open water of eastern Lake Erie, roughly in the middle of the band. Certainly explains the intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) A more reliable instability profile because it sets the surface air parcel at the water temp rather than the surface temp. Makes a huge difference. Edited November 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 Impressive stuff especially with not a strong system that pushed through like the last time Buffalo area got 6 feet of snow. One day would love to experience lake effect snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Edited November 17, 2022 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 I clicked on a few spots south of Buffalo. Here's the highest I could find. My math says 35-51" in about 36 hours with more expected over the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) EDIT: A better site for Buffalo area webcams.... https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI90B Edited November 18, 2022 by Hiramite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 16" reported overnight in the NE corner of OH, just east of the City of Ashtabula. And a report of 17", ESE of Ashtabula City near the PA border. Edited November 17, 2022 by Hiramite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 This is INSANE! The location is near Buffalo, NY with 70 inches of snow! 🤯 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 If I could be in Buffalo for 36 hours…. I gotta be able to witness something like this one day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Snow____ said: If I could be in Buffalo for 36 hours…. I gotta be able to witness something like this one day You know I am off starting today and it actually popped into my thoughts that I could just drive there tonight but I'd probably get stuck in my little sporty sedan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) On 11/16/2022 at 7:24 AM, Hiramite said: And for later this weekend, this may make the Bills/Browns game interesting to watch.... The NFL has moved the game to Detroit. Sigh. The flow/winds are starting to become SWerly. Things should get cranking in BUF in a few more hours. Edited November 17, 2022 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Some swirlies 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, junior said: Some swirlies Thanks for pointing this out. The mesolows are fascinating. Here are the 54-hour forecast for the coldest (-40C) 500mb temps since probably February. Also included: the vertical cross section chart from north to south from Michigan/Ontario down to the Gulf of Mexico. Huge vertical change of all values (0C, -12C, -18C) and strong unified jet stream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I’m over here in Detroit happy I may get 2” of lake effect overnight and tomorrow. Fairly large amount for us on the east side of the state since the bands never usually hold together long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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