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Kay | 105 mph 967 MB peak | Poof

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in Eastern & Central Pacific

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

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Posted (edited)
Spoiler

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...

INFORMATION
LOCATION...14.0N 101.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Models have this as a powerful hurricane, the next name is Kay.

Edited by Iceresistance
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  • The title was changed to TS Kay | 40 mph 1004 MB | High potential
Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

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Posted
4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

@Iceresistance do you follow a lot of E PAC hurricanes?  Is this year unusual as to how many are just following the coast all the way to Baja before heading out?

Yes, influences the weather in the Southern Plains

(On the bolded): Not for this time of the year, the Southern Ridge (The same Cockroach Death Ridge that scorches the Southern and Southwestern United States in a normal summer) and steering patterns are generally further north from Late August to November

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  • The title was changed to TS Kay | 65 mph 993 MB | High potential
  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kay | 80 mph 981 MB | RI'ing with High potential
  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kay | 85 mph 977 MB | High potential
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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

Posted
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Posted

Kay just passed over Socorro Island and is at 85mph and 978mb.  TS force winds extend 200 miles out.  Shear is expected to wane and she is expected to intensify fairly quickly to 110mph in 24 hrs.

 

Spoiler

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay continues to be relatively steady in strength.  The Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters so far have found peak flight-level winds 
of 75 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt pending 
the completion of the reconnaissance mission.  The minimum pressure 
is estimated to be 978 mb based on the aircraft data.  The center 
of Kay is currently over Socorro Island, and the island is about to 
experience strong winds on the system's east side.  The aircraft 
data and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Kay is a large 
hurricane, with its tropical-storm- force winds extending outward 
about 200 miles from the center.  Kay is also producing a large area 
of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of 
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward and it continues moving along the 
previous forecast track. A northwest to north-northwest 
motion is expected during the next few days, which will likely 
bring the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California 
coast on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left 
is predicted when the system is steered by a low- to mid-level 
ridge over the western United States.  The GFS has shifted a bit to 
the right this cycle, but the other models have generally held 
steady.  Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast 
and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should
decrease during the next day or so.  The anticipated more conducive
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 24-36 
hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time.  
Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the 
opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening.  Kay is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it 
is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is near or a little above the high end of the 
guidance, especially during the first 36-48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that 
time.  In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will 
extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact 
forecast track. 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula 
through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued.  Additional tropical storm watches and 
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be 
required tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southmexico-truecolor-20_46Z-20220906_map_-24-2n-10-100.thumb.gif.749e48f8cc2b66033785872090f83eda.gif

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

Posted
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Kay just passed over Socorro Island and is at 85mph and 978mb.  TS force winds extend 200 miles out.  Shear is expected to wane and she is expected to intensify fairly quickly to 110mph in 24 hrs.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay continues to be relatively steady in strength.  The Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters so far have found peak flight-level winds 
of 75 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt pending 
the completion of the reconnaissance mission.  The minimum pressure 
is estimated to be 978 mb based on the aircraft data.  The center 
of Kay is currently over Socorro Island, and the island is about to 
experience strong winds on the system's east side.  The aircraft 
data and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Kay is a large 
hurricane, with its tropical-storm- force winds extending outward 
about 200 miles from the center.  Kay is also producing a large area 
of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of 
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward and it continues moving along the 
previous forecast track. A northwest to north-northwest 
motion is expected during the next few days, which will likely 
bring the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California 
coast on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left 
is predicted when the system is steered by a low- to mid-level 
ridge over the western United States.  The GFS has shifted a bit to 
the right this cycle, but the other models have generally held 
steady.  Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast 
and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should
decrease during the next day or so.  The anticipated more conducive
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 24-36 
hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time.  
Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the 
opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening.  Kay is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it 
is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is near or a little above the high end of the 
guidance, especially during the first 36-48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that 
time.  In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will 
extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact 
forecast track. 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula 
through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued.  Additional tropical storm watches and 
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be 
required tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southmexico-truecolor-20_46Z-20220906_map_-24-2n-10-100.thumb.gif.749e48f8cc2b66033785872090f83eda.gif

Still keeping at 977 MB because it's likely going to drop again when Advisory #10A comes out!

 

EDIT: Recon has found 976 MB before the storm went over Socorro Island

Edited by Iceresistance
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  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kay | 100 mph 975 MB | High impact potential
  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kay | 75 mph (wut?) 971 MB | High impact potential
  • Meteorologist
ClicheVortex2014 Grand Master

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
  • Meteorologist
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, btbucks said:

I wonder if we will get TS watch or warning for the So Cal coast?

Fortunately not. It's gonna rapidly weaken. Mostly forced by significantly cooler SSTs but also probably some shear. Doesn't change the fact that there'll be some significant flooding potential in that area.

FWIW, it's moving into ~60F water which is a solid ~23F below what's favorable for TC maintenance. Literally throwing cold water on the situation 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 22.0N 113.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

image.png.3ec310b4b7f3d9b233e6d0d7c2a3d74f.png

image.png.73502a1fa5b120c0d14555e0d871fdb0.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kay | 85 mph 974 MB | High impact potential
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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

Posted
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Posted (edited)

Looking pretty weak, but also pretty close to land about 36 miles off .

goes17_vis_12E_202209081445.thumb.gif.a68344c85a5168e2a8814b3dc41fd201.gif122264597_ScreenShot2022-09-08at1_39_19PM.thumb.png.e985180113abc9baa40f0af7468e77c9.png

 

Top wind on dropsonde so far is 62 kts - top flight winds 65kts and only 40 for sfmr.

384448434_ScreenShot2022-09-08at1_29_39PM.png.291f716cdaa9225beb9e926ae69e99c2.png1289234814_ScreenShot2022-09-08at1_30_40PM.png.e4cfa83a510338ea0de6472d477cbcb4.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Kay | 65 mph 991 MB | Big storm
  • The title was changed to Kay | 50 mph 991 MB | Weakening fast

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