Cat 2 Hurricane Earl l Peak 105mph 954mb| post tropical

[StretchCT]

I'm going to bite on this one as it's looking quite favorable for development.  NHC has it at 80% for 5 days.

Good amount of lightning, little shear or dry air.   

I see clouds moving NE, N, NW, W, SW, so circulation at some level is there.  It might be a competitive environment right now as the primary circulation seems east of the convection (which has waned through the day).  A couple of bands too.  

Models have it intensifying.

Convergence and divergence not quite lined up yet.  Strong vorticity at 925 and 850, with 700 being weaker but in the same area as is 500mb.  Indicative of building. 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

HWRF likes this one. 102kts. HAFS and HMON barely get it named. 

[MaineJay]

It appears there's some low level circulation, with convection largely displaced to the SE.

 

[MaineJay]

The 6z GFS depiction in how this storm evolves after D8 is fascinating.

 

[StretchCT]

Globals not too keen on developing this one anytime soon.  Hurricane models disagree.

Euro has it developing this far, maybe a depression. 

GFS pops it on Sunday - so we'll wait and see.

Nearly unanimous that it makes it to TS strength though. And soon. 

HAFS develops it on Saturday.  And when I'm saying these times, it's not the first time that TS force winds appear, but when they appear near the center.  So classification could be sooner. 

As does HWRF

HMON on Saturday too.

[clm]

GFS has it going on one wild roller coaster ride.  Almost seems like there is a whirlpool over by the UK.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by clm

[StretchCT]

Bit of a mess this evening.

Really broad circulation

[clm]

Both of the southern storms seem to be taking their time to develop. 

 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, clm said:

Both of the southern storms seem to be taking their time to develop. 

 

94L (To the far right) is likely a goner.

[clm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

94L (To the far right) is likely a goner.

Agree.  It doesn't look that healthy and looking at the model, seems that the High south of Danielle is tossing it around.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Still at 70% development.  The recon is finding 925 flight level winds in the 40-46kt range. 33kts on the sfmr.  

Models still showing development likely.  Cat 2 potentially

[Iceresistance]

Now at 35 (Knots?) and 1006 MB, at 80% chance

[StretchCT]

TS Earl is born. Not an impressive forecast

Spoiler

TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft each flew missions into the area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands this afternoon into this evening, and the data from those flights indicated that the circulation and center of the low became well defined today. Deep convection has also persisted with the low, albeit sheared near and to the east of the center, which means the system has finally met the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Flight-level, surface, and dropsonde data from the reconnaissance flights all indicate that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds in the convection well to the east of the center, and for good measure TAFB provided a Dvorak estimate of T2.5/35 kt. The low is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Earl with maximum winds of 35 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb based on an Air Force dropsonde that measured a surface pressure of 1007 mb with 23-kt winds. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/12 kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement during the next 3 days, with a low- to mid-level ridge expected to steer Earl west-northwestward and then northwestward at decreasing forward speed. The ridge to the north is forecast to weaken and shift westward around day 3, which should cause Earl to slow down to less than 5 kt and turn northward by day 4, and then north-northeastward by day 5 as it begins to feel the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north. The biggest outliers on days 4 and 5 are the GFS and HMON, which show a stronger Earl moving faster toward the northeast. For now, the NHC official forecast favors a slower scenario on days 4 and 5, closer to the ECMWF, HWRF, HCCA, and TVCN. Moderate to strong shear is likely to continue affecting Earl for much of the next 5 days, possibly peaking in 3 to 4 days according to the SHIPS guidance. Mid-level relative humidity ahead of the system also remains lower than what is ideal for strengthening, and as a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows only modest intensification through the forecast period. This forecast is very close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls, area possible on those islands over the next day or two. 2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

 

 

[Iceresistance]

Exposed LLC, the wind shear is relentless!

[Iceresistance]

Now down to 1003 MB

[StretchCT]

Forecast strength 

12H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 21.8N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 25.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

ipad not letting me paste it the right way, sorry 

 

[MaineJay]

Looking at the models, seems like over the next 72 hours, the ECMWF kinda throws the brakes on and really slows forward movement. GFS swings a slightly stronger storm north and then east.  Some EPS members do seem to be able to threaten the coast with a very slow system.

Convection is trying to catch the surface circulation.

[Iceresistance]

23 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looking at the models, seems like over the next 72 hours, the ECMWF kinda throws the brakes on and really slows forward movement. GFS swings a slightly stronger storm north and then east.  Some EPS members do seem to be able to threaten the coast with a very slow system.

Convection is trying to catch the surface circulation.

The LLC is trying to run away to the west when the convection is trying to catch it to take it north!

[MaineJay]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The LLC is trying to run away to the west when the convection is trying to catch it to take it north!

Convection has about caught up, but it is kinda doing a pulse-collapse oscillation.

[Iceresistance]

Earl now at 50 mph and 999 MB.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Iceresistance

[StretchCT]

12z runs for euro and GFS have Earl near or reaching triple digit wind speed.

[MaineJay]

Well, he seemed slow that LLC to a crawl, now blasting up some pretty cold tops.

[StretchCT]

Earl now up to 65mph though the NHC only has it down 1mb to 998.  Wondering if that's a typo. Recon only had a couple 994's in hdobs.  

New forecast is for major status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.9N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.7N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.9N  65.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 24.0N  65.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 25.1N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 26.2N  65.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 27.3N  65.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 30.0N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 33.5N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Earl now up to 65mph though the NHC only has it down 1mb to 998.  Wondering if that's a typo. Recon only had a couple 994's in hdobs.  

New forecast is for major status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.9N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.7N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.9N  65.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 24.0N  65.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 25.1N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 26.2N  65.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 27.3N  65.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 30.0N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 33.5N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$

Recon is having severe communication issues today.

[StretchCT]

Lotsa dry air to the west.