July 22-31, 2022 | Ring of Fire

[ClicheVortex2014]

A potentially crazy ring of fire event is coming up. Should bring extreme, possibly record breaking heat to the Plains and severe weather to the Great Lakes/OV/Midwest.

Edited July 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Friday has a lot going for it and that's just friday

[btbucks]

I have nest week off work, was hoping for some nice pool days.

[Guest]

Scorcher today 🤮

3 places in the state were “officially” >/= 110, NOT heat index, actual temp.  Dew point here was 74 I believe.

This is just the local office reports::

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by SoDakFarmer

[snowlover2]

There's a day 3 enhanced area.

Quote

 Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Saturday across parts of
   the Upper Midwest. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
   significant damaging winds all appear possible.

   ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
   A notable shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the northern
   Plains east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
   on Saturday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will likely
   accompany this shortwave trough and act to organize thunderstorms
   that develop ahead of it through the day. There is reasonably good
   agreement in model guidance that a very moist low-level airmass will
   be in place ahead of a front across the Upper Midwest Saturday
   morning. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and robust heating of this
   airmass through the early afternoon should foster moderate to strong
   instability. Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for
   organized updrafts, and supercells with a threat for very large hail
   appear possible with initial convective development across MN.

   Most guidance also suggests that quick upscale growth into a MCS
   will occur Saturday afternoon/evening with eastward extent into
   western/central WI and northeastern IA. Given the degree of buoyancy
   available, at least scattered damaging/severe winds appear probable
   as this mode transition occurs. Some of these winds may be
   significant. Have included an Enhanced Risk where MCS development
   and propagation appear most likely. Enough low-level shear
   associated with a southwesterly low-level jet is also forecast to
   support a threat for a few tornadoes. This severe threat should
   continue into the Great Lakes region Saturday night, but lesser
   instability forecast with eastward extent should keep the overall
   severe threat fairly isolated.

   ..Gleason.. 07/21/2022

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Saturday could get interesting. Pretty solid rim of fire setup

[StormfanaticInd]

Friday night through Sunday look for severe weather. 

Saturday has high-end potential 

Edited July 21, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR has something for Saturday morning and at the end the next complex heading through the lakes and likely this way Saturday night/Sunday morning.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR has something for Saturday morning and at the end the next complex heading through the lakes and likely this way Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Not looking like as crazy of a pattern as it looked. GFS has been showing a pretty decent warm bias so I can only blame myself. But Saturday looks interesting.

Edited July 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

New day 2

[NWsnowhio]

26 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

New day 2

 

Interesting that they've added the tail/hook diving down into Indiana and Ohio...a tell-tale Ring of Fire pattern indicating there's at least the possibility of a windy MCS plowing through. It's not as prominent/evident of a dive as the one in June, but interesting that it's now there.

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

 

Interesting that they've added the tail/hook diving down into Indiana and Ohio...a tell-tale Ring of Fire pattern indicating there's at least the possibility of a windy MCS plowing through. It's not as prominent/evident of a dive as the one in June, but interesting that it's now there.

That's usually true when you're talking about convection getting going in the morning. But the peak of the event will be in the evening, so it's certainly gonna be significantly weaker once it reaches us because we'll have lost daytime heating and I think moisture is gonna be weaker. I'm actually surprised they put us in a marginal risk.

[NWsnowhio]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

That's usually true when you're talking about convection getting going in the morning. But the peak of the event will be in the evening, so it's certainly gonna be significantly weaker once it reaches us because we'll have lost daytime heating and I think moisture is gonna be weaker. I'm actually surprised they put us in a marginal risk.

I agree. That's why it was interesting to me to see the marginal added. Reading through text of the outlook though, it appears it's more for redevelopment along an outflow boundary than a weakening MCS.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ah, this is why. I assumed the marginal risk was for the weakening phase of the enhanced risk MCS. It's actually for the redevelopment from tonights MCS. Maybe this is what you meant, but I was imagining something else.

Meanwhile, derecho-ey look for the enhanced risk.

Edited July 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Clown NAM even extends into SW OH.

 

SE MN clown sounding

 

SW OH clown sounding (basically centered over Hamilton in Butler county)

 

[StormfanaticInd]

There could be two areas of severe weather tomorrow 

[snowlover2]

Something wrong with NWS text products? Noticed ILN AFD hasn't updated since this morning and so i checked IWX and IND and saw the same thing.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 landspout reports in Kansas, 1 in Texas

 

[NWOhioChaser]

4 hours ago, NWsnowhio said:

 

Interesting that they've added the tail/hook diving down into Indiana and Ohio...a tell-tale Ring of Fire pattern indicating there's at least the possibility of a windy MCS plowing through. It's not as prominent/evident of a dive as the one in June, but interesting that it's now there.

Yeah, storms are always dying/weakening as they get to us. We really don't get any decent setups anymore past several years. If there's morning convection...forget about anything severe in the afternoon. And if something develops way NW, then chances are it mostly dies before it enter the state.  Kind of like that batch of storms last night around 11. Looked great coming off the lake.

[ClicheVortex2014]

NW KS is still going

 

40% chance of a watch in NE Nebraska. Usually means SPC will upgrade the area to a slight risk... especially if that 40% comes true.

 Mesoscale Discussion 1551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast NE into northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222239Z - 230045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms capable of large hail
   and severe gusts could increase during the next few hours. Trends
   are being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a line
   of towering cumulus with hints of glaciation and a recent orphan
   anvil along a weak quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across
   parts of northeast NE into far northwest IA. Continued diurnal
   heating of rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints)
   along/south of the boundary could support isolated convective
   development during the next couple hours despite only weak
   large-scale ascent over the area. 

   Steep midlevel lapse rates and large CAPE densities atop the
   moist/well-mixed boundary are contributing to moderate/strong
   surface-based instability, which combined with long/straight
   mid/upper-level hodographs would conditionally support organized
   convective structures including supercells. In addition, 35-45 kt of
   effective bulk shear oriented off the surface boundary would
   initially favor separated updrafts and the potential for isolated
   large hail and locally severe gusts. Given the conditionally
   favorable parameter space, isolated significant hail of 2+ in cannot
   be ruled out. 

   Considering the weak large-scale ascent, it is currently unclear if
   storm coverage will warrant a watch issuance, though trends will be
   monitored closely.

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

27 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Yeah, storms are always dying/weakening as they get to us. We really don't get any decent setups anymore past several years. If there's morning convection...forget about anything severe in the afternoon. And if something develops way NW, then chances are it mostly dies before it enter the state.  Kind of like that batch of storms last night around 11. Looked great coming off the lake.

Yeah the past several years have been dead overall maybe one to three ok setups a year. We used to get good setups all the time

[ClicheVortex2014]

Overnight MCS actually holds together pretty well into SW OH. 

Meanwhile... Minnesota and Wisconsin... yikes.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Crazy what some sampling will do to a model

Model trend loop for 15z tomorrow

[snowlover2]

Looks like ILN updated.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface high pressure will build across the area offering
dry conditions through most of the night. Increasing heat and
humidity will be observed this weekend, along with a return of
storm chances. Episodic storm chances are expected to continue
into next week, potentially lasting through Thursday as warm and
humid air remains entrenched across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Mid level ridge positioned from the Southern Plains through the
southeast U.S. with a northwest-west flow across the Ohio
Valley. Weak surface trof/front will push east of ILN/s FA
early this evening with weak surface high pressure building into
the area this evening. The wind shift on either side of this
font is subtle, going from WSW to more W or WNW with slightly
drier air advecting into the region.

The evening will be mostly clear with diurnally driven
with only some high level clouds across the area.

A MCS is expected to develop over the Upper MS Valley this
evening and approach the area late tonight. Mid/high level
clouds will increase after midnight. Precipitation should hold
off until after sunrise but there is an outside chance that
storms could arrive into West Central Ohio just prior to
sunrise.

Mild temperatures overnight with lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level short wave embedded in the westerly flow to track
across the area Saturday morning. Expect ongoing MCS that
develops across the Mid MS Valley tonight to track into West
Central Ohio around 12Z and then across the area Saturday
morning. Storms should be in a weakening phase as they push
across the area during the morning. Uncertainty in location and
expanse of convection continues due to the spread that is
observed in the model solutions. The best threat will occur
across West Central Ohio. This convection will likely lay out an
outflow with additional storm development possible along this
boundary in the afternoon in the unstable airmass across
southwest OH/northern KY and eastern IN. These storms could
produce strong to damaging winds before diminishing by evening.

High temperatures to range from the upper 80s north to the mid
90s south. Maximum heat indices may approach 100 in the far
south -- along and south of the Ohio River.

Storm chances diminish in the evening with the loss of heat and
due to the lack of significant forcing. Warm temperatures with
lows Saturday night from near 70 east to the mid 70s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak disturbance will likely be moving across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday while hot, humid, unstable air stays to the south
in the Ohio Valley. Most of the forcing associated with the system
is expected to remain primarily north of the area. With the best
lift to the north, the highest chance of showers and storms on
Sunday remains in the vicinity and north of I-70. Any storms could
potentially pose a damaging wind threat with deep shear and
instability overlapping. The bigger story on Sunday could end up
being potential heat headlines if precipitation remains north of the
area for most of the day. Forecast highs are expected to be in the
low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Combined heat and
humidity likely will lead to apparent temperatures approaching or
exceeding 100 which may require a Heat Advisory.

Shower and storm chances start increasing late Sunday through the
start of the work week as a weak cold front sags south into the Ohio
Valley. It is very difficult at this time to forecast the exact
frontal position and evolution for next week. The main takeaway is
repeated rounds of showers and storms are possible along and ahead
of the front. Pockets of heavy rain could occur where multiple
rounds of storms set up since PWATs remain anomalously high south of
the front. Some severe threat could also exist because of
instability overlapping with deep shear associated with an upper
level trough digging into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures remain above
average south of the front and near average north of the front
through the week.

HWO: Peak heat index values could reach the upper 90s to around 100
degrees on Sunday. In addition, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Wind damage is the
primary threat with these storms.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The change with the 0z suite makes the western Ohio severe threat less organized but it does show a likely supercell in Darke county heading for Miami county. It would have a threat for all severe hazards, including the potential for significant severe weather. A strong tornado is possible *IF* a supercell verifies and the LCL is lower.

Edited July 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014