TS Bonnie | 50mph 997mb| landfall/cross over

[StretchCT]

An odd development over the Eastern/Central Atlantic for this early.  INVEST94L is currently 20% for next 2 days but 60% for the 5 day.  The models are pretty impressed with this early season storm with it heading into what is typically a quiet part of the Lesser Antilles. 

Split between a major and TS.  Usually if it intensifies it is drawn north.  

 

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by StretchCT

[1816]

Whoa. Even though it's unusual with the tendency for things in the tropics to go big the last several years I think the islands need to pay attention. I wouldn't book any trips to Antigua right now. 

[StretchCT]

Models still developing this one.  Track is interesting as Grenada and Tobago are usually where boats need to be during hurricane season.

Intensity is less homogenous, less consistent and weaker than prior runs

 

[Ingyball]

Was going to make this post almost a week ago when it came off of Africa, but work had me pretty tired. Will probably make a more in depth post tomorrow evening when I wake up (and see how the storm is performing). Bottom line is that this storm could end up being a doozy if  a few things go a certain way. If the storm stays weak through the Lesser Antilles chances are pretty high that low level steering will steer the storm westward into CA. From there it may take advantage of a Potential Vorticity Streamer (PV Streamer) which would provide good ventilation as the GFS shows.    This is more along the lines of what the HWRF is showing with a further south track and weaker storm. 

 

 

The other scenario that could play out is the storm intensifying faster than expected and becomes a strong tropical storm before the islands and a hurricane shortly after. That same PV streamer would provide a weakness in the upper levels for the storm to come further north. Now usually these PV streamers are a bad deal when a storm gets too close as it leads to wind shear, however, strong storms can literally break the PV streamer and actually turn it into a near perfect environment and go through explosive intensification. This is what happened with Irma. If we see a strong cat-1 in the eastern Caribbean, there's a decent chance that it ends up feeling that weakness more and moves away from South America. This is more along the lines of the latest HMON which now has a 969mb cane just south of Jamaica. If, and this is a big IF, the storm does what the HMON shows, the potential will be sky high as it moves through the northwest Caribbean. 

 

Finally, the wrench in the forecast is the tropical wave in the Gulf. If models are underdoing this and it becomes a depression or storm on it's own, it could effectively keep the ridge from building in and have an area of weakness over southern Texas. This could once again lead to a more northerly solution. There are certainly many variables at play here. 

 

[StretchCT]

70% 48 hrs, 90% at 5 days. Winds at TS force.

[StretchCT]

A look at recon.  Pretty consistent and believable.

[StretchCT]

messy sat

[StretchCT]

Still PTC2 40 mph and 1009mb.

NHC still expects it to be a TS, just needs closed circulation.  Per last discussion, it needs to slow down in order for the circulation to close.  We might be seeing that as it emerges back over water.

Spoiler

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the disturbance
continues to become better defined (at least in the mid levels),
with a formative low-level center moving across the Guajira
Peninsula overnight and convective banding features to the north
just off the coast.  There is still no conclusive evidence that the
circulation has closed off, but we should have a better idea of the
system's structure later today with visible imagery and a Hurricane
Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/17 kt.  For the next
36-48 hours, the track guidance is in excellent agreement that a
strong mid-level ridge extending southward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea is likely to force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on
a south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America.
Based on the latest guidance, the NHC track forecast has been nudged
south of the previous forecast while over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.  After crossing Central America in 2-3 days, the orientation of
the ridge should cause the system to move westward and then
west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico.  No significant
changes to the official track forecast were made during this period.

In order for the system to develop a closed circulation and become a
tropical storm, the key is for it to slow down, and it appears that
will happen by 24 hours.  Otherwise, warm waters and low shear 
should allow for strengthening while the system moves across the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  It should be noted that additional
strengthening could occur after the 36-hour forecast point until the
system makes landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica, and the NHC
intensity forecast is at the higher end of the guidance. After some
weakening occurs over Central America, the system is expected to
strengthen again over the eastern North Pacific, possibly becoming a
hurricane by day 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia
through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.

2.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas, respectively, along
the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on the Colombian island of 
San Andres on Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.0N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/1800Z 12.0N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/0600Z 11.5N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 11.1N  81.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 11.1N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  02/1800Z 11.1N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 72H  03/0600Z 11.5N  89.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 12.8N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 14.2N 100.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[StretchCT]

Bonnie finally bloomed this morning

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).
 
SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
 

 

Just in time for landfall - Bonnie only expected to reach 50mph in the Atlantic, 80mph in the 5th day over the Pacific.

[StretchCT]

About to make landfall