June 25-June 30, 2022 | Severe Weather (bust)

[ClicheVortex2014]

Both major ensemble models are showing the Ridge of Death will retrograde, become more broad, then be more focused on the Southwest. 

When the ridge becomes more broad and focused on the general Southern half of the US, severe weather will be focused on the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. When the ridge continues to retrograde and northwesterly flow takes over the Midwest... well, you all know what can happen. Should still be focused on the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains but events can sneak into the Great Lakes via MCSs.

Edited June 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Somewhat sneaky event. Low is way up in Canada so normally you'd think there won't be much for the US, but GFS has consistently been showing some embedded weak energy riding the remnant zonal flow. Limiting factors are weak mid-level lapse rates and weak directional shear. But this should be good for a slight risk regardless.

Mid-level lapse rates are sloppy simply because the advection from the source region wasn't favorable, and directional shear is weak because of how far displaced we are from the low. But I've noticed anecdotally that GFS doesn't handle surface winds well in the absence of a nearby low. That said, I doubt this would be a supercell event even if GFS is wrong about that this time. Gotta be some pretty decent forcing along that cold front, so the supercell window would be small.

Given the way this year has gone, I'm just fine with a slight risk which is what I think we'll get. 

(bonus points to any non-degreed-meteorologist that can guess what the slight risk would be for, and not for, based on what I've described)

Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[FortySixAnd32]

7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Somewhat sneaky event. Low is way up in Canada so normally you'd think there won't be much for the US, but GFS has consistently been showing some embedded weak energy riding the remnant zonal flow. Limiting factors are weak mid-level lapse rates and weak directional shear. But this should be good for a slight risk regardless.

Mid-level lapse rates are sloppy simply because the advection from the source region wasn't favorable, and directional shear is weak because of how far displaced we are from the low. But I've noticed anecdotally that GFS doesn't handle surface winds well in the absence of a nearby low. That said, I doubt this would be a supercell event even if GFS is wrong about that this time. Gotta be some pretty decent forcing along that cold front, so the supercell window would be small.

Given the way this year has gone, I'm just fine with a slight risk which is what I think we'll get. 

(bonus points to any non-degreed-meteorologist that can guess what the slight risk would be for, and not for, based on what I've described)

I'm guessing heavy rain and hail???

[Central Illinois]

[ClicheVortex2014]

On 6/23/2022 at 5:25 AM, FortySixAnd32 said:

I'm guessing heavy rain and hail???

Heavy rain and slight risk for wind, marginal for hail. Small hail would be possible with any storm but severe hail is questionable. That threat would go up if mid-level lapse rates were steeper. Mid-to-deep layer shear can help hail growth, too, and speed shear is seasonably modest. 

It looks like the slight risk, if there is one, would be for eastern Ohio and/or western Pennsylvania. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Bit of weak rotation north of Keithsburg

[ClicheVortex2014]

Possible significant severe weather event coming up for Minnesota on Wednesday. GFS has very weakly unstable 0-3km cape. Shear is seasonably strong, so supercells with very large hail and damaging winds seems like a lock. Low-level instability will need to increase for me to become more convinced of a higher-end damaging wind/tornado event.

Edited June 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Way out of the region of concern for this thread but wow. California isn't having a good time. 

Extreme drought -> fires -> burn scars -> monsoonal rain -> soil can't absorb rain in burn scars -> rain just moves to lower elevation without absorption -> flash flooding -> rain does nothing to help the soil in burn scars -> soil stays dry until (if?) scars heal

Terrible cycle. Especially considering how many burn scars California must have given how the state has basically been on fire for years now.

Flash flood warning for 2" of rain in 2 hours. Granted, that's a lot of rain no matter where you are, but only in this circumstance does it warrant a flash flood warning because drains are designed to handle something like 2-4"/h depending on location for a certain duration.

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
535 PM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

The National Weather Service in Sacramento has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Dixie West Burn Scar. in...
  Southwestern Lassen County in northern California...
  Northwestern Plumas County in northern California...

* Until 1130 PM PDT.

* At 535 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain over the Dixie West Burn Scar west of Chester along 
  highway 36. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. The expected rainfall 
  rate is 1.00 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 
  inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
  expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the warning area will cause mud slides near 
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation 
and other loose materials.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Dixie West
           Burn Scar.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Dixie West Burn Scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Chester, Almanor, Prattville, Lake Almanor West, Lake Almanor 
  Country Club, Canyondam, East Shore, Caribou, Seneca, Belden, 
  Twain, Paxton, Indian Falls, Bald Eagle Mountain, Tobin, Crescent 
  Mills, Storrie, Keddie and Greenville.

Highway 36

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and 
ditches in the Dixie West Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be 
anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in 
places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 12144 4035 12133 4035 12147 4044 12150
      4045 12133 4078 12132 4059 12132 4043 12106
      4031 12106 4030 12125 4026 12124 4020 12089
      4000 12079 4002 12099 3986 12140 4008 12137

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not often do you see sbcape extend so far into the post-cold frontal sector

 

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR trying to give us a little hope tomorrow.

[ClicheVortex2014]

11 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR trying to give us a little hope tomorrow.

Better look than 18z HRRR. Definitely the kind of setup that HRRR likely won't handle well.

Edited June 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like today might end the epic slight risk or higher steak we've had since April 25

[snowlover2]

4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Looks like today might end the epic slight risk or higher steak we've had since April 25

If by chance not today, tomorrow for sure. There's not even a marginal on the updated day 2.

[snowlover2]

Pouring here!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sad to see the streak come to an end but it was crazy while it lasted. 

We could still be on our way to the record for number of slight risks or greater during the warm season. Probably gonna have to beat 2008 for that. 2008 probably has the warm season and year-round record.

Edited June 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

And it's official. Last day 1 outlook remained a marginal risk. A full 2 months without a true marginal risk day.

[FortySixAnd32]

How does the weather look for your area for the 4th of July weekend? It looks like rain in Newark and I have a big party on the 2nd. 2 pork butts, tater-tot casserole, 3 bean salad, coleslaw, baked beans, homemade BBQ sauces, Texas sheet cake, Better Than S*X cake and a blueberry, strawberry and whipped cream trifle. Tent, DJ and about $10K worth of fireworks!!! Is their an anti-rain dance I can do??????

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

How does the weather look for your area for the 4th of July weekend? It looks like rain in Newark and I have a big party on the 2nd. 2 pork butts, tater-tot casserole, 3 bean salad, coleslaw, baked beans, homemade BBQ sauces, Texas sheet cake, Better Than S*X cake and a blueberry, strawberry and whipped cream trifle. Tent, DJ and about $10K worth of fireworks!!! Is their an anti-rain dance I can do??????

GEFS/EPS show a very similar pattern. Above average heights with northwest flow over the region. Suggests to me that it'll be at least average temps, if not above average. Northwest flow could produce some severe weather. 

Doesn't look like it'll be cool, it should be warm if not hot. I'd say the pattern suggests storms will be possible, but we'll have to wait for more specifics.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

First "non-severe day" since early April... yet Wisconsin pulled off two 2" hail reports.

[junior]

LR looks like a recharge on the MCS train but we'll see. Looks quiet for now..

[ClicheVortex2014]

Since this time period is basically dead, this thread is gonna be a bust. Might get a surprise event so I'll keep it going until an actual active severe weather pattern gets going. Sounds like that will return in very early July.

   A cold front accompanying the deep mid-level low as it migrates
   across and east of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity appears
   likely to progress south of the international border, into the
   Northeast by early Saturday.  Ahead of the front, it does appear
   increasingly probable that at least a narrow corridor of more
   substantive low-level moistening, across the northern Mid Atlantic
   into southern New England, will contribute to destabilization near
   the southern fringe of stronger westerlies (including 30-40+ kt in
   the 700-500 mb layer).  While it currently appears that CAPE might
   be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates, low-level lapse rates may
   become fairly steep.  If CAPE were a little larger or low-level wind
   fields a little stronger, the risk for organized severe thunderstorm
   activity would seem a little more certain.  As it is currently
   forecast, the environment probably will become at least marginally
   conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
   and it is possible that this could impact the urban corridor, at
   least from the Greater Boston to New York City areas, perhaps into
   the Philadelphia and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas.

   Late next weekend through early next week (including the July 4th
   holiday), it is possible that one or two perturbations could emerge
   from the Pacific coast mid-level troughing, and contribute to
   potential for the evolution of organizing convective clusters across
   the northern Intermountain region through northern Rockies. 
   Eventually, this activity may work its way around the northern
   periphery of the mid-level ridging near the central Canadian/U.S.
   border area.  However, the predictability of these features at this
   extended range remains low.

 

[Neoncyclone]

18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Since this time period is basically dead, this thread is gonna be a bust. Might get a surprise event so I'll keep it going until an actual active severe weather pattern gets going. Sounds like that will return in very early July.

   A cold front accompanying the deep mid-level low as it migrates
   across and east of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity appears
   likely to progress south of the international border, into the
   Northeast by early Saturday.  Ahead of the front, it does appear
   increasingly probable that at least a narrow corridor of more
   substantive low-level moistening, across the northern Mid Atlantic
   into southern New England, will contribute to destabilization near
   the southern fringe of stronger westerlies (including 30-40+ kt in
   the 700-500 mb layer).  While it currently appears that CAPE might
   be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates, low-level lapse rates may
   become fairly steep.  If CAPE were a little larger or low-level wind
   fields a little stronger, the risk for organized severe thunderstorm
   activity would seem a little more certain.  As it is currently
   forecast, the environment probably will become at least marginally
   conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
   and it is possible that this could impact the urban corridor, at
   least from the Greater Boston to New York City areas, perhaps into
   the Philadelphia and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas.

   Late next weekend through early next week (including the July 4th
   holiday), it is possible that one or two perturbations could emerge
   from the Pacific coast mid-level troughing, and contribute to
   potential for the evolution of organizing convective clusters across
   the northern Intermountain region through northern Rockies. 
   Eventually, this activity may work its way around the northern
   periphery of the mid-level ridging near the central Canadian/U.S.
   border area.  However, the predictability of these features at this
   extended range remains low.

 

The good news is that mid-long range models show a pretty active start to July for the OV, This is our month to shine. Hopefully it does better than June did, although thinking back June wasn't all bad, we definitely got a couple decent severe setups.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

25 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The good news is that mid-long range models show a pretty active start to July for the OV, This is our month to shine. Hopefully it does better than June did, although thinking back June wasn't all bad, we definitely got a couple decent severe setups.

 

 

A crazy month for damaging winds. June is typically the 2nd most tornadic month, but neither May nor June were more active than March. 

I feel pretty confident July will provide a significant event given the Nina is still pretty significant, especially for this time of year. We already had one significant northwest flow event in June... I don't see a reason why we won't be able to sneak another one out in the middle of summer.

Looking like we'll have an early peaking Nina this winter. Usually good for an active winter/front-loaded tornado season. That'll be our 3rd straight La Nina winter so it's safe to say we won't see a 4th. Might be a while before we see another.

Edited June 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

29 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

A crazy month for damaging winds. June is typically the 2nd most tornadic month, but neither May nor June were more active than March. 

I feel pretty confident July will provide a significant event given the Nina is still pretty significant, especially for this time of year. We already had one significant northwest flow event in June... I don't see a reason why we won't be able to sneak another one out in the middle of summer.

Looking like we'll have an early peaking Nina this winter. Usually good for an active winter/front-loaded tornado season. That'll be our 3rd straight La Nina winter so it's safe to say we won't see a 4th. Might be a while before we see another.

Another note... more for Ohio... we're at 23 tornado reports so far this year. It feels like a very inactive year, yet we're already above average for tornado reports for the entire year, half way through the year. (as usual, the west half of Ohio has the majority.) Though I will say that the long-term average of 18-20 annual tornado reports certainly seems to be a thing of the past. In 2012-2021, we've been averaging 31.5 tornadoes per year. That includes the anomaly years of 2015 (6) and 2019 (59)

Still have our hit-or-miss secondary tornado season to go... which has been far more miss than hit since 2013. We're due.

Edited June 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

nice loop with velocities