June 11-24, 2022 | Northwest Flow Severe Weather/Ring of Fire

[ClicheVortex2014]

Prior to the first major heat wave of the summer, there moderately strong northwest flow aloft should overlap with seasonably moist conditions. 

CIPS show a pretty obvious MCS/MCV-forced severe weather regime

 

Sunday

 

Monday

Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Kinda funny how tomorrow *WAS* a day 3 no-severe. Looks like a pretty decent day for supercells.

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR has some action here tomorrow night but so far nothing too special for Sunday.

[ClicheVortex2014]

A deterrence for Sunday in the OV is mid-level lapse rates. Pretty pathetic. But surface dew point/temp should result in strong instability regardless... and 40-50 knots at 500mb provides enough shear for organization. Looking to Monday to see the EML work in. There's clearly a robust EML reservoir just upstream.

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Crazy stuff from the 0z NAM.

[Hassaywx1223]

0z nam wants to play In My area see if trends continue 40 some hours out discreet cells could be a scary day could be nothing but it’s hinting 

[ClicheVortex2014]

10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Crazy stuff from the 0z NAM.

We should expect to see those parameters greatly lessen but the EML certainly shows up while shear decreases somewhat. What that tells me is that Sunday will be more balanced with instability/shear (supercells to MCS(?)) and Monday will be more lopsided toward instability (MCS)

Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Safe to say we're not gonna lose our marginal risk-less streak tomorrow like it seemed there would be a chance. We're going on a month and a half now.

Significant wind/hail possible on the day that was a day 3 non-severe. 

Should be explosive supercell development given expected strong to extreme instability and sufficient speed shear for organization given directional shear.

Also, a possible upgrade to slight risk for SE MT/SD.

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2022  
  
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF  
EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST  
MISSOURI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE MOST  
LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI  
VALLEY AND VICINITY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
NORTHEAST, WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PROVIDING  
STABLE CONDITIONS. TO THE WEST, UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE  
PLAINS, WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST. A WEAK FEATURE MAY ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY, AIDING LIFT FROM MT INTO SD.  
LIFT MAY ALSO BE FOCUSED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HERE, 850 MB  
WINDS AROUND 30 KT WILL AID THETA-E ADVECTION.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST, WITH THE GREATEST  
INSTABILITY FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX. A WEAK  
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI, WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY  
MOVING ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTHERN KS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG  
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SMALL  
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE MID MO VALLEY LATE IN  
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.  
   
..EASTERN NE AND KS...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHWEST IA  
  
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON  
FROM BOTH ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, RESULTING IN STRONG  
INSTABILITY PROFILES. MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 4000-5000 J/KG BY 00Z OVER  
EASTERN KS.  
  
A FEW EARLY DAY STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO IA, IN A  
ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850 MB. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY  
COULD POSE A MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND THREAT EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON,  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NE, AND ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION,  
THERE COULD BE OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT AND/OR ONGOING STORMS FROM IA  
INTO EASTERN NE. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR 00Z  
INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME, FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NE INTO EASTERN KS  
AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN MO. MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
FAVOR A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CELL AND/OR CLUSTER OF STORMS,  
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND. DEPENDING ON ACTUAL  
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY, ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORTS  
OR WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR. A TORNADO MAY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST FEW  
HOURS PRIOR TO STORMS GROWING UPSCALE. IF AN MCS FORMS, THE SEVERE  
RISK MAY PERSIST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OK/MO BORDER.  
   
..SOUTHEAST MT INTO SD  
  
A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION,  
BENEATH 50+ KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH  
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS. STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN  
UNCAPPED AIR MASS BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AS DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE  
TO REACH THE 50S F. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AND INTO WESTERN SD DURING THE  
EVENING. SEVERAL CAMS INDICATE AT LEAST ONE BOWING STRUCTURE,  
SUGGESTING SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK. GIVEN THE NARROW  
CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL AND QUESTIONS REGARDING INSTABILITY, WILL  
DEFER POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK TO LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES.  

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Still marginal risk in the OV with mention of upgrade.

Quote

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Sunday
   across parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail and
   damaging winds the main threats. Other strong to severe
   thunderstorms appear possible for parts of the Midwest into the Ohio
   Valley and Mid-Atlantic, and the interior Northwest.

   ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
   An upper trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS
   on Sunday, while an upper ridge remains centered over the
   southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. Low-level
   moisture is forecast to return northward across the central/northern
   Plains through the day along and east of a dryline/lee trough, and
   as a surface low deepens over central/eastern WY. Thunderstorms
   should form along the length of the lee trough from southeastern MT
   to eastern CO/western KS by late Sunday afternoon as large-scale
   ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads these regions and as
   diurnal heating erodes a substantial cap.

   Moderate to locally strong instability should be present across the
   warm sector by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse
   rates contributing to substantial buoyancy. Deep-layer shear should
   be strongest across the northern High Plains where a mid-level jet
   will be present. Initial supercell thunderstorms should pose a
   threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts as they spread
   eastward across the northern Plains through late Sunday evening. A
   tornado or two also appears possible as convection encounters
   greater low-level moisture and increasing low-level shear Sunday
   evening, mainly across parts of western SD. Farther south into the
   central Plains, deep-layer shear is forecast to be a bit weaker.
   Still, enough shear should be present in tandem with moderate to
   strong instability for modest updraft organization. Steep
   low/mid-level lapse rates should support severe downdraft winds with
   multicell clusters. Some hail also appears possible.

   In tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet, some
   potential exists for upscale growth into an MCS or multiple small
   bowing clusters Sunday evening/night across NE and SD. If this
   occurs, then at least an isolated severe threat may persist for much
   of the night across the northern/central Plains, and perhaps into
   parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated strong to severe convection may
   also occur during the day along/east of a weak surface boundary from
   eastern ND into parts of western MN. However, overall thunderstorm
   coverage remains uncertain this far east Sunday afternoon/evening
   owing to nebulous large-scale ascent.

   ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
   Neutral to rising mid-level heights are forecast over much of the
   Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic as an upper ridge builds
   slowly eastward, and as an upper trough lifts northward into New
   England and Quebec. There is still a considerable amount of
   uncertainty with where/if robust thunderstorms may develop Sunday
   afternoon. A surface front draped from northern IL/IN into OH/PA may
   serve as a focus for possible convective initiation. Eastern
   portions of the Midwest into the OH Valley may have a slightly
   better chance for thunderstorms, as a low-level temperature
   inversion/cap should be weaker with eastward extent across these
   regions. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place
   along/south of the front Sunday afternoon, as rich low-level
   moisture characterized by mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s surface
   dewpoints will be present. A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly
   mid-level flow should also be in place on the northern periphery of
   the upper ridge.

   Given the degree of deep-layer shear forecast, any thunderstorms
   that develop could become supercellular and pose an isolated threat
   for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level flow is
   not expected to be overly strong, it may be sufficient for modest
   low-level rotation and a brief tornado or two. Have opted to expand
   the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic since
   there is still large spread among model guidance with placement and
   coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening. If a more focused
   corridor of severe potential becomes evident, then greater severe
   probabilities would be needed given the favorable thermodynamic and
   kinematic environment. 

   ...Interior Northwest...
   Instability is expected to remain generally weak across interior
   portions of the Northwest Sunday afternoon/evening owing to
   persistent cloud cover associated with an upper trough. Still, most
   guidance suggests enough instability will exist to support
   surface-based convection. Strong deep-layer shear will be present
   over this region, and organized multicells or low-topped supercells
   may develop and spread northeastward through Sunday evening.
   Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and damaging winds may
   occur with the strongest cores, with the limited instability likely
   precluding a greater severe threat.

   ..Gleason.. 06/11/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

Day 3 Monday also has a marginal risk down into IN/OH.

Quote

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday into Monday
   night across parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe
   thunderstorms may also occur over portions of the Upper Midwest into
   the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper trough encompassing much of the western CONUS should move
   slowly eastward across the northern/central Rockies and adjacent
   High Plains on Monday. At the surface, rich low-level moisture
   should stream northward across the northern Plains to the east of a
   front/dryline. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a strong cap will
   likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorms across this region
   through much of the day. Still, robust MUCAPE is forecast to develop
   through Monday evening in a southwest to northeast corridor from
   western SD into much of ND. There may be some chance for
   surface-based convection across eastern ND Monday afternoon, but a
   better chance for intense thunderstorm development should occur
   Monday evening/night farther west as large-scale ascent associated
   with the upper trough overspreads the northern High Plains. Even if
   convection remains slightly elevated, the reservoir of substantial
   MUCAPE and strong effective bulk shear will likely support severe
   thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging
   winds as they spread northeastward across SD/ND through the period.

   ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
   A surface warm front is forecast to lift northward through the day
   across parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley. A
   very moist low-level airmass will be in place to the south of this
   front. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an
   EML, strong to extreme instability will likely be present along/near
   this front. Some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may occur
   generally to the north of the front Monday afternoon/evening in a
   low-level warm advection regime, with a threat for mainly isolated
   large hail. The potential for surface-based convection along/south
   of the front is less clear, as a cap and rising mid-level heights
   associated with an upper ridge may inhibit convection across the
   much of the warm sector through the day.

   ..Gleason.. 06/11/2022

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ok…

[Neoncyclone]

Looks like today has some decent probabilities in IA,MO,KS for some pretty wild supercells capable of all hazards tonight

[junior]

Love me some ring of fire summer action. Are we getting teased by late summer rings of MCS?

Edited June 11, 2022 by junior

[ClicheVortex2014]

Must be a favorable spot for supercells in SE NE

[ClicheVortex2014]

Confirmed tornado on the northern one. I think the CC drop is clear air inflow because it doesn't match that well with velocity and it matches with low reflectivity.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The CC drop goes up to 10k feet. Doubt a clear air inflow signature would be that strong at that height. The dislocation of the CC drop from velocity and reflectivity might be caused by strong winds aloft.

Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like we have a supercell merging happening

[Neoncyclone]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Looks like we have a supercell merging happening

And a dominant big ol' supercell looking to be the result

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looking like a favorable storm merger

[ClicheVortex2014]

Confirmed tornado apparently. Strong, broad rotation in the mid-levels.

[ClicheVortex2014]

5" hail report from Beatrice, NE about an hour ago.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty high probabilities

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

What a mess

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Really nasty looking supercell. Lucky it's embedded in a developing MCS... that should hold back its potential but we'll see.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Really nasty looking supercell. Lucky it's embedded in a developing MCS... that should hold back its potential but we'll see.

 

Wow