Moderators StretchCT Posted June 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted June 1, 2022 (edited) Invest 91L is on the servers of TT and CIMMS NHC has it at 80% forming Satellite looks juicy but shear is tough Only one run of the early models so far but FL seems to be the target As mentioned in the Gulf thread, the Euro develops this more than the GFS as it has less shear in the Gulf. Both deepen it once past Florida though. Just a question of is it a TD or TS when it hits FL, or does the shear (which is moving SE on the lapse) abate enough to go to H Edited June 7, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 GFS has it scraping southern tip of Florida as a big storm and going out to the Atlantic. Euro has it actually forming and crossing Florida and into the Atlantic hugging the coast. But at NC will turn and go out to sea. But this is quite early so anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 (edited) NHC still at 80% but the sat looks impressive, especially in light of the shear. I wouldn't want to be under this. Convergence and divergence are stacked well, which usually generates a healthy storm. Again, given the shear surprising. Edited June 2, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 NAMs thoughts this morning… stay south? Kind of hoping to get some storms, I’ll be on a beach near Sarasota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 So 24 hours later, still at 80% for Disturbance 1. Disturbance 2 seems to be petering out, I wonder if it could be affecting #1. Euro still has a similar track but rather than be well formed prior to Florida, it now is a mess and starts forming as it passes NC on the way out to sea. GFS has this storm as a complete mess and in disarray for the same run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 (edited) The area around Cancun seems to be the center of circulation. I'm working on the Cancun radar movie. But here's the link. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/en/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares 2022-06-02 09-57-59.mp4 Edited June 2, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 Not a bad consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 Recon headed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 Some of the convection is swirling east of Cancun 2022-06-02 13-53-36.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 Intensity forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 Recon flying 400-600 feet. Usually don't see it that low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Recon flying 400-600 feet. Usually don't see it that low. Mechanical problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, 1816 said: Mechanical problem? IDK - its been that low for a while. I think they're just getting their feet wet for the season... There is a broad circulation. Can't tell if it's closed, but there are N, NE, E, SE and S winds. Radar shows rain moving east, so there must be a west wind too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: I think they're just getting their feet wet for the season... Let's hope they don't take that too literally 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 It's getting there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 2, 2022 4pm CDT disco. Broad circulation. Shear. Poor convection. TD in 12 hrs. TS in 24hrs. Hitting FL. Not going to be a pretty storm, winds far from center. Spoiler Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas. The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion. The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South Florida and in the Keys. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, StretchCT said: IDK - its been that low for a while. I think they're just getting their feet wet for the season... There is a broad circulation. Can't tell if it's closed, but there are N, NE, E, SE and S winds. Radar shows rain moving east, so there must be a west wind too. Might be that they got out there and were like, uh what storm? Seems to finally get its act together after Florida, but weak. Edited June 3, 2022 by clm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 3, 2022 (edited) Definitely showing circulation. And some stronger winds, 45-50kts flight level, which may be TS strength. If that is indeed the center, then this is really lopsided. Said before it wouldnt be pretty Edited June 3, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 3, 2022 Intensity guidance is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 3, 2022 Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 3, 2022 Further out you can see the classic shape forming and extent of the circulation and S Florida looks like rain for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 IMBY currently HRRR till 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted June 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted June 4, 2022 We will see if this reforms off the Florida coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 4, 2022 The swirls are fascinating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 4, 2022 Still forecast for tropical Spoiler otential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the Naples area. These data also suggest that a new vorticity center is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of lake Okeechobee. The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these are occuring in strong convection over the water east of southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position. While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to ongoing re-formation of the center. The track guidance is in good agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into the central Atlantic. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to become a tropical storm. By 72 h, this interaction is expected to lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 26.5N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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