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Tropical Storm Alex | Peak 70mph 986mb |post tropical


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Invest 91L is on the servers of TT and CIMMS


NHC has it at 80% forming


Satellite looks juicy but shear is tough



Only one run of the early models so far but FL seems to be the target


As mentioned in the Gulf thread, the Euro develops this more than the GFS as it has less shear in the Gulf.  Both deepen it once past Florida though. Just a question of is it a TD or TS when it hits FL, or does the shear (which is moving SE on the lapse) abate enough to go to H

Edited by StretchCT
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GFS has it scraping southern tip of Florida as a big storm and going out to the Atlantic.  Euro has it actually forming and crossing Florida and into the Atlantic hugging the coast.  But at NC will turn and go out to sea.  But this is quite early so anything can happen.

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NHC still at 80% but the sat looks impressive, especially in light of the shear.  I wouldn't want to be under this.


Convergence and divergence are stacked well, which usually generates a healthy storm.  Again, given the shear surprising.


Edited by StretchCT
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So 24 hours later, still at 80% for Disturbance 1.  Disturbance 2 seems to be petering out, I wonder if it could be affecting #1.

Euro still has a similar track but rather than be well formed prior to Florida, it now is a mess and starts forming as it passes NC on the way out to sea.  GFS has this storm as a complete mess and in disarray for the same run.

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The area around Cancun seems to be the center of circulation.  I'm working on the Cancun radar movie.  But here's the link.





Edited by StretchCT
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46 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Mechanical problem?

IDK - its been that low for a while.  I think they're just getting their feet wet for the season...

There is a broad circulation.  Can't tell if it's closed, but there are N, NE, E, SE and S winds. Radar shows rain moving east, so there must be a west wind too. 

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  • The title was changed to PTC One | Forming | NW Caribbean/Gulf
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4pm CDT disco.  Broad circulation. Shear. Poor convection. TD in 12 hrs. TS in 24hrs.  Hitting FL. Not going to be a pretty storm, winds far from center. 


Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low 
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico.  This system is currently producing poorly 
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects 
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The central 
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed 
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center.  Due to the 
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with 
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula 
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.

The initial motion is 360/3.  The system should turn northeastward 
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the 
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should 
continue through the end of the forecast period.  The guidance is 
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida 
Peninsula on Saturday.  It should be noted that the guidance 
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to 
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track 
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.

The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very 
uncertain.  It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum 
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction 
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant 
development over the Gulf of Mexico.  The guidance does suggests 
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity 
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in 
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h.  However, these winds 
are likely to be well removed from the center.  Interaction with a 
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over 
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.  
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over 
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the 
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this 


1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue 
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.  Life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 

2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida 
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and 
urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South 
Florida and in the Keys. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in 
western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch 
area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and 


INIT  02/2100Z 21.4N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/0600Z 22.3N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  03/1800Z 23.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 24.8N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 26.5N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 28.7N  79.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

Forecaster Beven


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16 hours ago, StretchCT said:

IDK - its been that low for a while.  I think they're just getting their feet wet for the season...

There is a broad circulation.  Can't tell if it's closed, but there are N, NE, E, SE and S winds. Radar shows rain moving east, so there must be a west wind too. 

Might be that they got out there and were like, uh what storm?

Seems to finally get its act together after Florida, but weak.




Edited by clm
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Definitely showing circulation.  And some stronger winds, 45-50kts flight level, which may be TS strength.


If that is indeed the center, then this is really lopsided.  Said before it wouldnt be pretty

Edited by StretchCT
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Still forecast for tropical


otential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and 
poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in 
southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the 
Naples area.  These data also suggest that a new vorticity center 
is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of 
lake Okeechobee.  The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these 
are occuring in strong convection over the water east of 
southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position.  
While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the 
system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm.

The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to 
ongoing re-formation of the center.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue 
through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward 
motion Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the system will 
emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or 
tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into 
the central Atlantic.  The new forecast track has only minor 
adjustments from the previous track.

Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough 
over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the 
disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the 
disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation 
during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to 
become a tropical storm.  By 72 h, this interaction is expected to 
lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central 
Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the 
intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor 
adjustments from the previous forecast.


1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida
and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas 
by this afternoon.


INIT  04/1500Z 26.5N  81.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  05/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  05/1200Z 29.7N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  06/0000Z 31.9N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 33.7N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 35.0N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 35.7N  56.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1200Z 39.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 44.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Beven


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