Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 1, 2022 (edited) Definitely not an easily recognizable severe weather pattern like a western trough, but with weak troughing over the upper Midwest, where storm tracks like to favor this time of year, this should favor a somewhat suppressed storm track. Meaning, the Central Plains through the Lower Midwest/OV should see an increase in activity. Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 (edited) Gefs seems to be pointing toward cooler than average with troughing over the midwest/east. Storm track could actually get suppressed too far south as hard as that is to believe for June 🙄😭 Edited June 1, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Gefs seems to be pointing toward cooler than average with troughing over the midwest/east. Storm track could actually get suppressed too far south as hard as that is to believe for June 🙄😭 Pretty dangerous to suppress the storm track in June. Obviously, could bust if cold fronts keep pushing the moisture to the Gulf coast... but that's hard to see happen this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pretty dangerous to suppress the storm track in June. Obviously, could bust if cold fronts keep pushing the moisture to the Gulf coast... but that's hard to see happen this time of year. I tend to agree but worth keeping an eye on. I've noticed the gfs tends to over amplify the pattern in the long range Edited June 1, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 2, 2022 Pretty active suppressed severe weather pattern in the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 We are due for something to shake up around here. Been lackluster winters for about 4 years. Anything on the horizon is always excited but the reality usually kicks in.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 (edited) Alright...this is it. Northern Ohio's season coming into focus. Mostly just wind events and small hailers up this way 85% of the time. But being sandwiched all the way up towards Toledo, it's hard to ignore the small and large scale impacts the city along with the lake has on weather here. When severe storms DO initiate, its mostly in this area below, and shunts to the south and east while maintaining or increasing in strength. E.g: yesterday's storm in northern Hancock county. Usually leaves Lucas county high and dry for the most part when it comes to storms. Dying fropas seem to be where our moxie has come from the past few seasons. Something's gotta give this year... Edited June 2, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 This storm sucks From KIND. Sunday night through Thursday... Ahead of a low pressure system, winds will pick up Sunday evening and cloud cover will increase. A front associated with this low will pass through our CWA on Monday, but trends have shown a slow in the eastern progression of this system. Jet dynamics in both the lower and upper levels are unfavorable for significant strengthening of the low pressure system. The surface low appears to be vertically stacked with base of a 500mb shortwave trough, suggesting quick weakening of the system as it passes through our region. Monday will be rainy, with a chance of thunder. However, recent model runs decreased the amount of CAPE expected during the passing of the front, but thunder may still be possible. There is low confidence in whether or not showers will linger through Wednesday and Thursday. Rain can be expected if the front stalls over or near our CWA. Counties behind this front will experience CAA and highs in the low- to-mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 Our climate has definitely changed over the OV. We just do not get storms like we used to. I have gone pretty much the entire spring without even one decent strong thunderstorm. Unheard of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Next week is starting to look a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted June 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted June 4, 2022 On 6/2/2022 at 6:48 AM, FortySixAnd32 said: We are due for something to shake up around here. Been lackluster winters for about 4 years. Anything on the horizon is always excited but the reality usually kicks in.... I would move to your area for the tranquility, however, I'm sure that would change once I did 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 4, 2022 On 6/3/2022 at 5:45 PM, StormfanaticInd said: Our climate has definitely changed over the OV. We just do not get storms like we used to. I have gone pretty much the entire spring without even one decent strong thunderstorm. Unheard of! Well to be fair, climatology is shifting in general but tornadoes are shifting our way. Doesn't seem like it but it is. Spring has been hit-or-miss for years, but I'm sure it won't stay like that. In theory, this should've been a big year for us with the -PDO and moderate Nina, but there's more to it than the Pacific. We're one of the regions that really doesn't have an off-season so missing Spring doesn't bother me much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 4, 2022 (edited) It's MCV season. Got one currently in the Midwest and another one will likely develop tomorrow. That one could produce some MCV severe weather in the mid-MS valley/OV on Monday if it verifies. Edited June 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 4, 2022 Nice supercells in Nebraska. Based on mesoanalysis hodographs, there may be some splits for now... nocturnal LLJ might stop this in a couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 Billion dollar weather disasters are still somewhat rare, but man, we're very lucky the Plains isn't more populated. Not even talking about tornadoes, the frequent late spring/early summer significant hail days would be contenders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Supercell cluster is doing some interesting things in NW KS. Won't be surprised to see a tornado or tornado warning result. Note the below images are for the same supercell, different radars, but likely very similar times. The former is closest to the cluster. Edited June 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Thermo statistics have been glitching lately but I can tell from the profile that there's gotta be something like 3000-4000 sb/mucape here. And that EML placed like that with the freezing layer? Gonna produce some crazy hail. Edited June 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Supercell cluster is doing some interesting things in NW KS. Won't be surprised to see a tornado or tornado warning result. Note the below images are for the same supercell, different radars, but likely very similar times. The former is closest to the cluster. Appears there was a brief tornado. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 815 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0801 PM TORNADO 5 S OBERLIN 39.75N 100.53W 06/04/2022 DECATUR KS STORM CHASER TORNADO LASTED 2-3 MINUTES THEN ENDED. LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 83/ROAD 348. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 0z HRRR has a severe threat for Monday for the Lower OV as a result of the MCV that develops tomorrow. Looks to me like the extent of the severe threat is limited by moisture availability. But it is the long-range HRRR which isn't great with handling mixing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 I'll probably get the leftovers of the current plains MCS moving through here tomorrow morning, with another late night/early morning MCS moving through Sunday night. Could get some decent action out of these. June has been pretty inactive for storms over the last couple years for this area so maybe this year can break that streak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Local weather says 80% chance of storms Monday night into the morning Tues. Would be nice to have a rumble of thunder come through. Slow start for sure but diurnal storms can sometimes surprise this time of year. Edited June 5, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 0z HRRR has a severe threat for Monday for the Lower OV as a result of the MCV that develops tomorrow. Looks to me like the extent of the severe threat is limited by moisture availability. But it is the long-range HRRR which isn't great with handling mixing. SPC has expanded the marginal risk to IN on the new day 2. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2022 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK... ..SUMMARY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ..SYNOPSIS A COMPACT MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE OZARKS MONDAY MORNING. AN MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK. THIS MCS AND ANY MCV WILL DRIVE AT LEAST LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER-OH VALLEY VICINITY. FURTHER TO THE WEST, ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATOP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST MT SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER MCS MAY ORGANIZED ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK OVERNIGHT. ..OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOCATION OF ANY ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE OZARKS VICINITY DURING THE MORNING, AND THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED MCV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL ALSO BE MODEST, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25-30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN KS/OK A SMALL SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH TX MONDAY MORNING, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT OVER OK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK, POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER AND INSTABILITY WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO EASTERN WY/WESTERN NE AND SOUTHEAST MT/SOUTHWEST SD. NEVERTHELESS, ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ..LEITMAN.. 06/05/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 Busy Sunday ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Could get interesting here today. These are some pretty big area soundings over central Kansas on the NAM and HRRR The 3K NAM did have some crazy parameters yesterday, but it seems like the 6z run never recovers the atmosphere. I'm not sure how realistic that is with the current MCS already pretty far east. The HRRR has a mean line forming. Pushes all the way into Illinois. Edited June 5, 2022 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Welp I got double upgraded from marginal to enhanced. This got interesting real quick... SPC even mentions a possible upgrade to moderate but I'd assume that would be for KS. The line won't get here until like 2-3 am so I won't be able to stay up for it but it's better than nothing. Could get some nice rain from the current line in KS too later this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now