Summer outlook and discussion 2022

[StormfanaticInd]

 

With this look in the Pacific I am expecting an above normal summer when it come to temperatures. I could see a notable heatwave even 🔥 

[StormfanaticInd]

Looking at the models there is a chance this summer could be active with severe weather 

[StormfanaticInd]

😬

[StormfanaticInd]

Joe Bastardi seem to be hinting at a cool to average summer 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Joe Bastardi seem to be hinting at a cool to average summer 

 

I would argue potential of the NE having another above average region with lows probably being the culprit in a muggy airmass. Im not sure we see huge warm temps, constant days in the 90s, as we move into July and August but rather consistently mid to upper 80s along coastal plain probably 90 ish in city regions with all that pavement (which is pretty darn close to average) and temps not dropping much at night with the humidity. We stand a chance of these heat burst situations where we go maybe close to heatwave status before it breaks cooler for a few days and returns to a normal state before another chunk breaks off from the TX/SW region and warms us up briefly. Wash rinse repeat.

I think we still will manage close to our normal amount of heat waves though as this will be surely close to doing one tomorrow. I want to say we average about 4-5 a year but that is purely a guess at this time.

It will be interesting to see how things fair over the Midwest/GL region. They really may end up a wash but intra month will potentially be a neutral one month, warm another, then back to a cooler month type of deal couldn't tell you how each month will end up unfortunately. The drought will surely control the TX/OK region into the SW so that seems plausible. Going to need one hell of a monsoon season to give some relief.

Edited June 1, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Al_Czervik]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

I would argue potential of the NE having another above average region with lows probably being the culprit in a muggy airmass. Im not sure we see huge warm temps, constant days in the 90s, as we move into July and August but rather consistently mid to upper 80s along coastal plain probably 90 ish in city regions with all that pavement (which is pretty darn close to average) and temps not dropping much at night with the humidity. We stand a chance of these heat burst situations where we go maybe close to heatwave status before it breaks cooler for a few days and returns to a normal state before another chunk breaks off from the TX/SW region and warms us up briefly. Wash rinse repeat.

I think we still will manage close to our normal amount of heat waves though as this will be surely close to doing one tomorrow. I want to say we average about 4-5 a year but that is purely a guess at this time.

It will be interesting to see how things fair over the Midwest/GL region. They really may end up a wash but intra month will potentially be a neutral one month, warm another, then back to a cooler month type of deal couldn't tell you how each month will end up unfortunately. The drought will surely control the TX/OK region into the SW so that seems plausible. Going to need one hell of a monsoon season to give some relief.

The GL will be cooler than normal.  I don't see anything that screams flip to above normal temps for a long duration.  Lot of ups and downs with downs being more pronounced.  

[StormfanaticInd]

I think the handwriting is on the wall for this summer 

[StormfanaticInd]

On 5/31/2022 at 10:44 PM, so_whats_happening said:

 

I would argue potential of the NE having another above average region with lows probably being the culprit in a muggy airmass. Im not sure we see huge warm temps, constant days in the 90s, as we move into July and August but rather consistently mid to upper 80s along coastal plain probably 90 ish in city regions with all that pavement (which is pretty darn close to average) and temps not dropping much at night with the humidity. We stand a chance of these heat burst situations where we go maybe close to heatwave status before it breaks cooler for a few days and returns to a normal state before another chunk breaks off from the TX/SW region and warms us up briefly. Wash rinse repeat.

I think we still will manage close to our normal amount of heat waves though as this will be surely close to doing one tomorrow. I want to say we average about 4-5 a year but that is purely a guess at this time.

It will be interesting to see how things fair over the Midwest/GL region. They really may end up a wash but intra month will potentially be a neutral one month, warm another, then back to a cooler month type of deal couldn't tell you how each month will end up unfortunately. The drought will surely control the TX/OK region into the SW so that seems plausible. Going to need one hell of a monsoon season to give some relief.

I'm thinking the OV and Great Lakes region will be below normal given the trends

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/1/2022 at 4:34 AM, Al_Czervik said:

The GL will be cooler than normal.  I don't see anything that screams flip to above normal temps for a long duration.  Lot of ups and downs with downs being more pronounced.  

 

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm thinking the OV and Great Lakes region will be below normal given the trends

 

Maybe im still liking the idea of at least come mid june for this heat to crank up east of the rockies. The ridge out west seems short lived before another trough digs in. I honestly would love to be wrong on this and continue with the cool pattern for quite some time. We will know of course in due time.

Unfortunately the MJO doesn't have much of an influence this time of year other than the upper levels playing a role in tropical development. We are heading into 8 and potentially 1 which will show a ridge forming in the east and into the GL probably come mid month with lag on the atmosphere. If we continue into 1 we could see another decent cooldown through the center of the country maybe toward the end of June early July? Unfortunately this is super low reliability as usually the Nina kind of takes a little bit of a break this time of year instead of just starting to wane a little. But with us entering 8 and 1 in the MJO plots we stand the chance of the increase in Tropical activity as we move through the month. 

We seem to already be starting this from our ridge that was placed into much of the east. See if this continues after our cooldown to near average for most with some below average into the lakes and plains. We are still pushing well into the future come mid month but at least the first week looks solidly at or below average for many.

Truthfully that is probably some beautiful weather to be had for early summer. Below average means 70-75 for most with decent overnight temps talk about a break on electric bills for that scenario and would take that in a heart beat! We wont be immune to having rain potentials with a cooler pattern but it should still manage to be decent most days so not a total wash of day after day of rain.

 

[Al_Czervik]

On 6/2/2022 at 10:18 PM, so_whats_happening said:

 

 

Maybe im still liking the idea of at least come mid june for this heat to crank up east of the rockies. The ridge out west seems short lived before another trough digs in. I honestly would love to be wrong on this and continue with the cool pattern for quite some time. We will know of course in due time.

Unfortunately the MJO doesn't have much of an influence this time of year other than the upper levels playing a role in tropical development. We are heading into 8 and potentially 1 which will show a ridge forming in the east and into the GL probably come mid month with lag on the atmosphere. If we continue into 1 we could see another decent cooldown through the center of the country maybe toward the end of June early July? Unfortunately this is super low reliability as usually the Nina kind of takes a little bit of a break this time of year instead of just starting to wane a little. But with us entering 8 and 1 in the MJO plots we stand the chance of the increase in Tropical activity as we move through the month. 

We seem to already be starting this from our ridge that was placed into much of the east. See if this continues after our cooldown to near average for most with some below average into the lakes and plains. We are still pushing well into the future come mid month but at least the first week looks solidly at or below average for many.

Truthfully that is probably some beautiful weather to be had for early summer. Below average means 70-75 for most with decent overnight temps talk about a break on electric bills for that scenario and would take that in a heart beat! We wont be immune to having rain potentials with a cooler pattern but it should still manage to be decent most days so not a total wash of day after day of rain.

 

I love taking the boat out, without warmer days and nights, the lakes are very chilly when venturing out.  

I still am stuck on when the ridge out west does pop, there is no stopping it.  Then yes I would expect many cool days and night with trough in the east.  Kind of bummer considering the GL was below normal the majority of the time since 1/1.

 

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Heat builds next week😭

[so_whats_happening]

Starting to see the signs of this heat being mostly through the Midwest and some of the GL. We may get a little blip of warmth over here in the mid atlantic and NE but look to be just on the edge of the ridge. This of course opens the opportunity of NW flow situations so that will be something to watch. Euro only goes to just before the solstice but the looks of it may have another push of heat after the trough dives down through the NE. Very Omega block like showing up with the Euro. GFS not too far off this idea. Will really have to watch and see if we do get a tropical system like the GFS is harping on for several runs around the solstice. This would balloon the ridge through the area over top of the Midwest, GL, and NE and could induce some rather warm temps. Again will just have to keep an eye out for it. Gulf coast looks to be the target if one were to get going as the Atlantic not super conducive yet. 

 

Going to keep enjoying these seasonal temps through the area though and take it while we can! Not a usual sight with temps in the average department for summer.

Edited June 10, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Cdfarabaugh]

19 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Starting to see the signs of this heat being mostly through the Midwest and some of the GL. We may get a little blip of warmth over here in the mid atlantic and NE but look to be just on the edge of the ridge. This of course opens the opportunity of NW flow situations so that will be something to watch. Euro only goes to just before the solstice but the looks of it may have another push of heat after the trough dives down through the NE. Very Omega block like showing up with the Euro. GFS not too far off this idea. Will really have to watch and see if we do get a tropical system like the GFS is harping on for several runs around the solstice. This would balloon the ridge through the area over top of the Midwest, GL, and NE and could induce some rather warm temps. Again will just have to keep an eye out for it. Gulf coast looks to be the target if one were to get going as the Atlantic not super conducive yet. 

 

Going to keep enjoying these seasonal temps through the area though and take it while we can! Not a usual sight with temps in the average department for summer.

Shitty thing looks like were gonna set up right where all the crap comes down off the ridge so every other day were getting bombed by storms.  (Like my specific meteorological lingo? Lol )

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Shitty thing looks like were gonna set up right where all the crap comes down off the ridge so every other day were getting bombed by storms.  (Like my specific meteorological lingo? Lol )

Lol yea i'm more than fine with it. Ill gladly not run my window unit for this time period and just open up the windows (many places around me are older buildings, my home is 112 years old still in great shape too, so many do not have central air just hear the hum of window units when we get some wild heat). Temps low to mid 80s and low temps around low 60s even upper 50s not very common around here this time of year. Usually we start to roar with heat. What i'm not ok with is this causes the perfect weather for some immense fauna growth and my backyard has been going bonkers with growing lately, even with the crap weather. So that's one thing i'm kind of not ok with. My temp forecast for the NE will also be a bit cooler than expected due to the persistence of troughing into NE especially. I still think our area fairs slightly above average overall for the month with that initial heat we had. The upper Midwest should still be the cool spot as well as potentially another smaller but still below averag region remaining across KS,OK, and MO. Would need exceptional heat to really roar those temps near to above normal which is not improbable but may be difficult with how cool its been in those regions.

Gotta say though if we do not see the tropical system in the GOM the GFS is still trying to advertise this is an extensive heat situation across TX and much of the deep south. What could also be taken as a good sign is the startup of the monsoon season across the SW should kick in in the next week.

 

What I have found interesting is the persistence of the ridging pattern into central northern to NE Canada so far the last 2 months. It is responsible for some rapid melt of snow across northern Canada and lending to temps in the low to mid 80s in that region. Nothing has poked its head into Arctic ocean yet which is good for now but this setup allows for the weakness in between that ridge and the TX/SW ridge to be exploited and allow for a weak trough to dig out across the east helping keep our temps down a bit for highs generally (besides a one maybe two day spike in temps). If we did not have that ridge up in Canada we would be flooded with warmth across most of the country. You can see the general flow of things on how the Midwest has had some large swings but overall a bit chilly as NW flow takes over with some rather dry air. GL to the east and NE are about average to slightly above during this time period because of warm nights due to low level moisture being around but this hasn't been too crazy as seen in past years so that's a nice relief. You can also see how BDCF are a thing for many in the NE but have less and less influence the further SW one goes toward the Mid Atlantic.

 

Anything past day 10 as usual is a bit of a crap shoot but this week should offer a solid average temp in the east with much of the Midwest seeing above average after this weekend and maybe another brief break into next weekend with another trough dipping in. I think folks will enjoy those 80s and low 90s since it has been chilly across the Midwest and GL (at least those folks on here lol) I honestly can't complain about temps in the low to mid 80s and still decent dewpoints overall.

Looking at the Euro it tends to agree with the GFS except has temps a bit warmer across the mid west and GL during the next week and spikes us in the east one day around upper 80s maybe low 90s if we get a westerly wind setup.

[NWOhioChaser]

Going to be a rather hot stretch coming up here in Northern Ohio. It's been a while since we've had a heat wave this long and with such high anomalies(10ish ° above avg.).

2011 is becoming a frequently brought up analog as discussed earlier.  Which was particularly noted around here for the heat, but also the humidity. I see the similarities in terms of precipitation and soil level moisture for both '11 and this year. Seems models could be latching onto a shift east of the axis of ridging for the summer which would introduce more chances of NW flow events for the Midwest/GL area.

Edited June 16, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[so_whats_happening]

20 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Going to be a rather hot stretch coming up here in Northern Ohio. It's been a while since we've had a heat wave this long and with such high anomalies(10ish ° above avg.).

2011 is becoming a frequently brought up analog as discussed earlier.  Which was particularly noted around here for the heat, but also the humidity. I see the similarities in terms of precipitation and soil level moisture for both '11 and this year. Seems models could be latching onto a shift east of the axis of ridging for the summer which would introduce more chances of NW flow events for the Midwest/GL area.

Woof best of luck, by the looks of it we may potentially get our second heat wave of the season going into next weekend at least for the coastal plain it seems likely.

Long range is showing potential of the ridge backing down a bit through much of the plains into the east toward the end of the month and displacing it into a more typical (ish) location in the SW and West. This ridge breaks because of tropical activity but if persistence is still at play we don't get a tropical system and it continues unfortunately. Hope for those folks in TX and the south it can break after dealing with, in some locations, weeks of 100 degree weather.

We have pretty much completely did away with the below average across many areas of the central plains from earlier in the month and with continued heat as it seems right now many areas look to be solidly above average except northern plains and some GL locations.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

It may be mostly fantasy range, but we are definitely in hurricane season.

Edit: loop won't load. See 18z GFS

Edited June 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Harberr62]

Hopefully the tropics will temper the drought that is ramping up quickly here in parts of Indiana. 

[Al_Czervik]

9 hours ago, Harberr62 said:

Hopefully the tropics will temper the drought that is ramping up quickly here in parts of Indiana. 

CPC says lower lakes will have below normal precipitation for a while.  I am wondering if we will have a pattern like last year where it was warm in June and then it got wetter and cooler in July.

[StormfanaticInd]

Latest from JB

[StretchCT]

Just wondering when it's gonna warm up in the NE.  A look at Euro weeklies.

[NWOhioChaser]

Realllllly don't want a repeat of 2012 in terms of heat and drought. It's been a complete switch the last 8 days with constant sun and temps above 90 for most of the stretch. Grass is starting to burn in patches here.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is 2011 for GPH and surface temp. Not too far off but the 2012 GPH pattern is remarkably close to this years for june so far.

Temps for june and then july

GPH for june and july

[so_whats_happening]

Current situation:

 

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry didnt want to clog one post with so many pictures I guess I could have used quotes... 

Here is 2012 june and july GPH and temp:

 

Lets see if we develop a massive ridging pattern through the center of the country essentially doubling down on the current ridge pattern and extending up into the Arctic. For most of the late spring early summer ridges have essentially halted getting into central Canada but we shall see.