April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[ClicheVortex2014]

Full model agreement on a western trough in mid-April? Severe weather... lock it in.

Edited April 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

You beat me to it!

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this looks interesting but I can't really get too excited just yet. I've seen it happen a bunch of times where it looks great a week out and then slowly downtrends as we get closer to the event. Prime example is 4/27/21. Looked big at first, then became nothing more than a slight risk. Definitely good model support for this one though so it's something to watch for sure. We'll see if it's still there in a few days...

Edited April 4, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[StormfanaticInd]

Been watching this period for a while. Looks like traditional tornado alley is about to light up

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC forecaster

 

[ElectricStorm]

Time to start watching every single run for the next 8 days 

 

[FortySixAnd32]

4 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Time to start watching every single run for the next 8 days 

 

Classic high ridge!! It's beautiful!!

[StormfanaticInd]

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A large-scale upper trough is expected to intensify over the western U.S. on Days 6-7/Sun-Mon and slowly pivot eastward toward the Rockies and Plains by around Day 8/Tue. This will result in lee troughing/low development over the central/southern High Plains early next week. In response, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport rich Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains by Day 7/Mon and as far north/east as the lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Day 8/Tue. While modest low-level moist return is expected on Day 6/Sun east of a dryline extending southward across western OK into central TX, capping and weak forcing will preclude thunderstorm development. By Day 7/Mon, a sharper dryline is expected over portions of central KS/western OK/central TX, while increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow overspreads the region. Strong heating and somewhat cool temperatures aloft should allow for moderate destabilization amid strong vertical shear, and at least isolated convection is expected to shift east off the dryline during the afternoon/evening, resulting in severe storm potential from southeast KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. Severe potential may develop across portions of the same area and a bit east/northeast toward the lower MO Valley on Day 8/Tue as the western large-scale trough ejects eastward, resulting in stronger height falls and deepening surface cyclogenesis amid a thermodynamically-favorable environment. However, uncertainty in the timing of the ejecting upper trough, and location/track of the developing surface low will preclude severe probabilities at this time, though probs may become necessary in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central/south-central U.S. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2022

[ElectricStorm]

Welp looks like we'll have to add 4/11 to this thread. It's been awhile since we've had a serious multi-day event out here. Could next week break the streak? I think it's possible 

[Iceresistance]

Mike Ventrice can't do his automated severe weather outlook on D9
 

 

[ElectricStorm]

I'm just gonna pretend I didn't see the 12z GFS... I don't really see any reason to believe that unless the other models join in and make it a trend, so I'm throwing it out for now

[Iceresistance]

30 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I'm just gonna pretend I didn't see the 12z GFS... I don't really see any reason to believe that unless the other models join in and make it a trend, so I'm throwing it out for now

It could be just a bad run, the Canadian still has severe storms for Kansas & Oklahoma, the mode is messier though.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

@OKwx_2001 The GEFS is still on board with severe storms for Monday, as long as the Ensembles are still with the severe weather for that time period, the SPC may not take it out since there is Ensemble consistency

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

I think we'll see a 15% area for 4/12 on the extended outlook here in the next couple days, both those days are looking solid. 0z and 6z GFS looked great for 4/13 as well but Euro moves the system faster and doesn't have much in the plains for that day so next Wed is a wild card at this point. Mon and Tues are looking pretty solid though so I'm pretty interested to see what comes out of this. Hopefully some good storms/rain but no huge tornado outbreaks. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS has a high-end event for E Oklahoma. 

Area average sounding for eastern Oklahoma

Edited April 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

GFS has a high-end event for E Oklahoma. 

Area average sounding for eastern Oklahoma

How do you get the area soundings? Is that on the paid subscription only?

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

How do you get the area soundings? Is that on the paid subscription only?

yup

[ElectricStorm]

Uh you good there GFS?

[StormfanaticInd]

Impressive 

[StormfanaticInd]

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Impressive 

[Iceresistance]

SPC has April 12th under a Slight risk for Severe Storms, it's somewhat farther east compared to 4/11

 

EDIT: Maybe one for April 10th?

Edited April 6, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

Even Joe B says it's going to be a big outbreak. O_O

 

 

[Iceresistance]

Mike Ventrice has this. (Take this forecast with a grain of salt)
 

 

[TLChip]

Seems like a bullish map 8 days out 😵, ask the snow lovers in the NE this year. More digital snow then we knew what to do with 🤣. At least the word potential is in that tweet. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Fascinating.... This post was made in December!

 

The Storm Prediction made this prediction a couple of days before the event materialized. As we say at Weather 20/20, LLC “What would you do, If you knew?”. What if Amazon knew 60-days ago that there was a significant risk of severe weather? What if the residents of Mayfield, Kentucky would have known to be better prepared for this potential disaster weeks to months in advance?

Now, here is the point of today’s blog entry. We are predicting right now that when this part of the pattern cycles through close to the 15th of February, around April 15th, and around June 22nd, give or take a few days, and maybe even around August 24th, that there will be another outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. There will be a reflection of this recent severe weather outbreak in most of those next four LRC cycles.

The October version of the pattern produced five days of significant severe risks in a row, while the December version in the second LRC cycle produced December 10th with another one approaching around the 15th. This one approaching looks quite similar to the set up around October 13th, 63-days earlier. The spring versions may also come in two separate waves producing a potential major severe weather outbreak, or possibly two of them.

With a 63–64-day-cycle, the April set-up would be close to April 13th to 16th. This is the part of the cycle that needs to be monitored for a major severe weather and tornado outbreak.

Edited April 6, 2022 by StormfanaticInd