March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS has an absolutely mammoth western trough dipping down next weekend creating a very obvious severe threat. Euro has a less amplified trough but still could see some significant severe weather in Texas. Just not of the same magnitude.

Euro's been garbage with severe weather events for a while now. Not ruling it out but not putting much faith in it.

Edited March 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

22 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

GFS has an absolutely mammoth western trough dipping down next weekend creating a very obvious severe threat. Euro has a less amplified trough but still could see some significant severe weather in Texas. Just not of the same magnitude.

Euro's been garbage with severe weather events for a while now. Not ruling it out but not putting much faith in it.

Yeah I'm trying not to get excited about it since every time the GFS shows a good setup a week out it doesn't usually pan out. But we'll see 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got the very rare day-7 and day-8 slight risk

As the upper trough shifts into the central/southern Plains Day 7/Monday, severe weather risk will increase. While fairly substantial differences exist in the various models, regarding evolution of the upper system -- and thus the details of the surface pattern, is appears likely that returning, a fairly well-modified Gulf mixed layer will advance inland across the eastern half of Texas. Afternoon heating -- beneath steepening lapse rates aloft -- will likely support scattered storm development across a substantial portion of eastern Texas, and possibly portions of adjacent Oklahoma/Arkansas/Louisiana. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow on the back side of the surface high shifting into the eastern states, beneath flow veering to southwesterly and increasing substantially in magnitude with height, will likely yield shear favorable for supercells across a broad area. As such, an all-hazards severe event -- including potential for tornadoes -- seems fairly likely to result. Therefore, a 15% risk area is being introduced at this time. By Tuesday, model differences apparent leading into the latter stages of the medium-range period become more substantial. In any case, with a moist low-level airmass preceding the front and thus supporting afternoon destabilization, and with south-southwesterly flow aloft spreading eastward with time, severe weather -- including potential for tornadoes -- is again expected, most likely within portions of an area bounded on the west by East Texas, on the east by the central Gulf Coastal region, and on the north by the Mid Mississippi Valley.

Edited March 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

I think this is only the second time I've seen a Day 8 slight risk. The other one was during the May 2019 sequence. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I think this is only the second time I've seen a Day 8 slight risk. The other one was during the May 2019 sequence. 

You know it's going to be really active if such a risk pops up on Day 8

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

You know it's going to be really active if such a risk pops up on Day 8

That's what happens when you have a trough like this pop up in late March. Euro really suppresses moisture to only the southern part of the Gulf coast states. But the warm sector is dangerous.

If you look at the placement of the slight risks compared to the moisture return shown on 0z GFS and Euro... you'll see SPC apparently has 0 regard for Euro. They're confident enough in GFS's solution a week out that they went with a slight risk. Conversely, they have so little regard for Euro that they discarded its suppressed warm sector a week out.

It's one thing to look at 0z GFS and Euro and go with a slight risk for where both models agree on where the warm sector could be... e.g., S TX. But no, they extended the slight risk past where Euro has the warm front.

Both ways you phrase it here makes the decision to go with the slight risk sound premature/risky. To be fair, it is. It'll be interesting to see if they make changes to it going forward, and to see if Euro caves again.

Edited March 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

That's what happens when you have a trough like this pop up in late March. Euro really suppresses moisture to only the southern part of the Gulf coast states. But the warm sector is dangerous.

If you look at the placement of the slight risks compared to the moisture return shown on 0z GFS and Euro... you'll see SPC apparently has 0 regard for Euro. They're confident enough in GFS's solution a week out that they went with a slight risk. Conversely, they have so little regard for Euro that they discarded its suppressed warm sector a week out.

Both ways you phrase it here makes the decision to go with the slight risk sound premature/risky. To be fair, it is. It'll be interesting to see if they make changes to it going forward, and to see if Euro caves again.

May have the mindset of both of them?

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

May have the mindset of both of them?

Euro doesn't have a severe threat for E TX... that's beyond the warm front

[Ingyball]

Hoping we can maybe trend towards some triple point action here.

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is not a good trend

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yep getting a bad feeling about Monday... but Tuesday? Super yikes. Will be interesting to see what Euro does, and what SPC does.

Updated the thread title. Unless Euro's correct about the suppressed warm sector, this is like a match with a powder keg.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Euro's still kinda suppressed but mammoth severe threat

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wow… SPC is mentioning the potential for >2” hail 6 days out. 
 

They also call it a severe weather “episode”

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Wow… SPC is mentioning the potential for >2” hail 6 days out. 
 

They also call it a severe weather “episode”

An Enhanced (30%) chance for severe weather for Next Monday very possible?

The SPC has also mentioned 100 Knot SW Mid-Level Jet for that area as well.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Iceresistance
Forgot to add

[ClicheVortex2014]

26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

An Enhanced (30%) chance for severe weather for Next Monday very possible?

The SPC has also mentioned 100 Knot SW Mid-Level Jet for that area as well.

Enhanced is inevitable by day 1 IMO. But SPC has set the bar really high for day 4+ enhanced. I’m starting to think we might see that here. 

[snowlover2]

11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Enhanced is inevitable by day 1 IMO. But SPC has set the bar really high for day 4+ enhanced. I’m starting to think we might see that here. 

Don't remember the last time i saw that kind of language used 6+ days out. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 30% area pop up tomorrow. Even makes me wonder if they might go with a rare day 3 moderate by the time Saturday gets here.

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Don't remember the last time i saw that kind of language used 6+ days out. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 30% area pop up tomorrow. Even makes me wonder if they might go with a rare day 3 moderate by the time Saturday gets here.

It would be really scary to have a Day 3 High Risk, the bar for that is extremely high, but so is the ceiling for the Next Monday Storm.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

It would be really scary to have a Day 3 High Risk, the bar for that is extremely high, but so is the ceiling for the Next Monday Storm.

Day 3 high risk isn’t currently a thing, just like day 4+ moderate risk

[snowlover2]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It would be really scary to have a Day 3 High Risk, the bar for that is extremely high, but so is the ceiling for the Next Monday Storm.

They don't go high on day 3's. Moderate is the ceiling.

[ClicheVortex2014]

No big changes on GFS with respect to magnitude

Area average sounding for E TX

 

Highest point-and-click (SE TX)

 

Area average sounding for most of the west half of MS

 

Highest point-and-click (SW MS)

[ClicheVortex2014]

Strong wording from SHV regardless of lead time. Acknowledges the rarity of the day 6-7 slight risk; severe weather looks "very likely"; "widespread severe weather."

 

Quote

It`s certainly not every day that the SPC issues an outlook as far out as day seven. It just so happens that this system has been very consistent among the long-range guidance, as well as remaining very potent with each run. Severe weather continues to look very likely for the Four-States region Monday night into Tuesday, but there is one important detail I want to mention. Low pressure placement between the Euro and the GFS will make a night and day difference when it comes to our severe weather threat. The GFS pulls the low farther north and east during trough ejection. This would not only keep the best shear and forcing out of the area, but create an elongated front type of situation. Flash flooding would also become a concern with this scenario, as heavy precipitation would likely keep firing and banding NE along this stalled front. The Euro on the other hand keeps the low pressure in much tighter with the full trough ejection. This path would keep the low closer to the Oklahoma/Texas border as it moves east. In turn, the higher shear values and better forcing mechanism would be much closer to the Four- States region, which could result in much more widespread severe weather. At this time, it`s safe to say all modes of severe weather would be possible, including tornadoes.

EWX (Austin, TX) echos strong wording.

"day 7 slight risk... usually leads to a significant severe weather event"; "we usually only see the opportunity for long-range severe weather messaging this far out maybe a couple times a year"

Quote

The weather pattern for Saturday afternoon will be quite similar to that expected today, so expect another favorable condition for the spread of fires over our Edwards Plateau counties. And finally on Sunday, we start to pull away from this troublesome late winter active fire season, at least temporarily. There could be brief elevated fire weather conditions over northern counties, but late afternoon RH values should surge higher as a much larger and lower latitude upper low develops west of TX. Thus the first day spring will kick into high gear with a strong storm threat to begin as early as Sunday night. The scale of this storm system is large enough to garner the attention of SPC in there Tuesday update for 7 days out, which usually leads to a significant severe weather event. Specifics are obviously too far away in time to pinpoint, but we usually only see the opportunity for long range severe weather messaging this far out for South Central TX maybe a couple times a year. Thus we`ll keep messaging confined to the AFD/HWO and concentrate most of the current messaging on our more immediate fire weather concerns.

None of the offices in the day 7 slight risk want to even talk about it yet

[ClicheVortex2014]

CIPS analogs isn't as convincing as I thought it'd be for Monday. Certainly possible that there just aren't analogs for it.

 

 

Looks like 500mb heights are around -2 sigma in northern Mexico

Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

This is possibly one of the biggest March Outbreak potential since 2020

[ClicheVortex2014]

Afternoon AFDs for Monday were boring by any standard, but especially compared to the ones some put out 12 hours ago.

Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

This 18z GFS Sounding is over Southern Houston, the really scary part is that it's not contaminated, & if this verifies, it would warrant a High Risk of Tornadoes, in an area that rarely experiences this. 

 

(And if something like this stays consistent, then a unthinkable Day 3 High Risk is not out of the question)