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Sun Activity | Auroras


MaineJay

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The sun is relatively active with daily sunspot numbers nearing 100. As we approach the equinox, the Earth's magnetic field becomes more favorable to geomagnetic storms.  A full halo was recently detected, and has potential. 

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FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)

2022 Mar 11 07:33:04

A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in SoHO LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraph data with start time around 18:48UT on March 10th following the onset on a long duration C2.8-class flare from active region NOAA 2962. The bulk of the CME covers almost 180 degrees (north-east to north-west from Earth's perspective) and splits into two parts, moving at different projected velocities, both exceeding 500 km/s. The CME is observed by STEREO A COR2 primarily to the north-west and has a substantial Earth-directed component. Further analysis will be conducted to estimate the expected arrival time.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
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X class flare today!  Chance at some storming tonight as well. The sun is getting feisty.

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FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2022 Mar 30 19:45:16 A class X1.3 solar X-ray flare occurred on 30 March 2022 with peak time 17:37UT. The region of origin was active region NOAA 2975. Additionally, a type II and type IV radio emission were detected at 17:32UT and 17:34UT respectively, indicating an associated CME.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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19 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@MaineJayX2.2 Solar flare last night in the SE quadrant of the sun, at 5 o'clock.

Looks like that flare won't be geoeffective, but one of the spots pointing at Earth just spit out an M9.6 flare. Hopefully that gets the sky dancing. We can worry about clouds later.

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10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@MaineJay

Sun.thumb.png.fa398e74eb1e66198d503dc2e0118082.png

The Arch facing us . . . What does that mean? It's getting ready for another powerful flare?

I believe it's the plasma following the magnetic field lines. I don't know how to "read" the magnetic configuration really, just some basics.  

  I imagine that at least statically, these larger, complex sunspot groups create more flares, but there was a "dead" spot that released a sizeable flare just recently.  So while the odds are probably higher, it's like weather, nothing guaranteed.  I think even the Carrington event was from a newly emerged spot that just exploded at the right time.

  It might be analogous to thunderstorms. Big clusters probably produce much more severe weather, but a discreet cell can also pop up and be dangerous too.

  I am learning mostly from reading the SIDC discussions.

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INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2022 Apr 22 12:30UTC

Solar flaring activity was moderate. All flaring activity was from Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) with the strongest flare being just an M1.1 flare peaking at 5:14 UT. Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) remain complex groups with beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. Mixed polarity fields are primarily around the leading spot of Catania group 81 (NOAA active region 2993) and in the intermediate section of Catania group 82 (NOAA active region 2994). These regions remain the dominant source for flaring over the next days. Flares at M level are likely with also a very significant chance for X flares.

http://sidc.oma.be/

Information on magnetic configurations here.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-magnetic-classification-of-sunspots.html

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3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

X1.5 Solar Flare from Sunspot group 13006 aimed at us.

Shows that even the little sunspots can produce.  Thanks for the heads up, I'm hoping this times well with subs clear skies in the case is geoeffective.

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After a longer period of inactivty, we're getting multiple M-Class Solar Flares from a single sunspot group (13076), with the strongest being a M5

 

Also, a G3 geomagnetic storm is expected per SWPC in a few days, the Aurora could be seen as far south as Oregon, South Dakota, Illinois, New York, and CT.

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20 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

After a longer period of inactivty, we're getting multiple M-Class Solar Flares from a single sunspot group (13076), with the strongest being a M5

 

Also, a G3 geomagnetic storm is expected per SWPC in a few days, the Aurora could be seen as far south as Oregon, South Dakota, Illinois, New York, and CT.

Looking like they are firing now. Friggin raining here, unlikely I get a window to send up the drone tonight.

1052534139_latest(1).thumb.jpg.7b9eedf614fb3442bb39125debe55422.jpg

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It always seems like that every time that there could be a major geomagnetic storm, the storms roll in.

Already up to G2 right now. Sun just puked out another CME it appears.

Screenshot_20220817-164039.thumb.png.a2601714b7af8ae5ea2ee3d7677262c6.png

The Earth's magnetic field is becoming more cooperative for any earth directed plasma to be goeffective. Sun's got a lot of spots despite the predictions that this would be a weak cycle.  So hopefully it's a busy fall.

Screenshot_20220817-164559.thumb.png.9f61d46819a021db73fe4731ee590be3.png

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