March 7-8, 2022 | Winter Storm | Short Range

[MaineJay]

   The next significant weather makers will be ejecting from the 4 corners region over the next week.   The first of these looks to bring mostly rain, but a subsequent trof looks to eject, and potentially take a track more to the SE. Where the baroclinic zone reside following the first systems passage, as well as any possible northern stream interaction will be things to look at.  

   We know that the sun is creeping higher, as are average temps, but March can still easily produce snow, especially in Northern NY and NE.  As currently modeled, these areas stand to see the best chance at snow. 

 Using the adage,  "watch out for what follows a warm up", let's start with Sunday temps from Ecmwf. 

What goes up, must come down. The inevitable cold will displace this spring like airmass, in what fashion is what we are really interested in. 

EPS looks like it has a family of quicker members. 

 There's various degrees of ejecting timing, track, and northern stream influence.  Now, this doesn't appear to be a massive storm by any measure, as it will be quick moving.  It could tap some good moisture, but with no big high "over top", we would probably want to see this shortwave to be negatively tilted.  

CMC, GFS, UK, and ECMWF in spoiler. 

Spoiler

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Wouldn't take much of a push south to get more of us in the HV/NPA in some ice/ snow action.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Ask and you shall receive lol. 6z gfs starts a little colder with snow farther south but goes over to rain, maybe it could trend south, we'll see. Like MJ said marginal cold with no HP, still could work if you get lucky.

6z GFS

Edited March 3, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

The pattern remains active early next week. A wave of low pressure will likely ride along the aforementioned frontal boundary Monday night, likely bringing a period of snow and/or rain to the area. At this point the best chance for accumulating snow looks to across central interior areas based on the ensemble guidance. The snow is likely to be a relatively narrow in area with this system, so the exact track of the system will be very important in determining snowfall amounts, with amounts quickly dropping off to both the north and south of the higher accumulations.

The track of the storm will also have a strong influence on temperatures early next week, and a strong gradient across the front the low will ride along. Right now the temperature forecast for early next week is between the cold and warm extremes of the solutions.

 

[telejunkie]

Models still trending colder and more south with this one. Yesterday consensus was for northern New York and northern New England would be primary target of snow. Today guidance trending more just north of the I-90 corridor into north-central New England. Obviously all about how far south the cold front can get....but if experience with these scenarios this winter has shown me anything, it's that when we get into short range...throw the global models in the trash if the short range models are much warmer/further north with the cold push. But don't feel like this one is quite the same setup as those....this isn't a battle between two high pressure system.

So while we don't have a high pressure up above we do have an upper air pattern and cold front that is driving cold air down into the region as our wave(s) approach. Check out that ridge spiking into the Bering Sea

Edited March 3, 2022 by telejunkie

[telejunkie]

Huh....Pivotal currently offering Kuchera maps for Euro....

[telejunkie]

WPC shows a track and frontal placement similar to what I saw from today's 12z guidance

[HVSNOWSTORM]

18z gfs looks good:

[HVSNOWSTORM]

18z gfs gif, has a wave of very little light snow on the 7th then a 2nd wave developing on the 8th with more widespread snow from NYC on north. This is a decent pattern developing. 

[Tater]

Not looking too promising for winter weather down this way. Not that I'm overly surprised, as it's kinda far south to be getting snow this time of year, but it happens occasionally.

If we don't get another snow before spring arrives for real, I'm never trusting that groundhog again.

[telejunkie]

21 hours ago, telejunkie said:

if experience with these scenarios this winter has shown me anything, it's that when we get into short range...throw the global models in the trash if the short range models are much warmer/further north with the cold push.

I swear....it's like I've seen this movie before....

[MaineJay]

NAM3 says this should be a severe weather thread.