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March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

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A few marginal risk/slight risk days coming up but starting this thread mainly for Sunday 3/24 and perhaps into early next week. Current Day 5 slight risk for parts of the southern plains and if moisture ends up being a little better than currently shown by models, I think this could end up being a pretty significant event. 

Overall setup Sunday looks pretty good except for moisture so definitely something to watch as we get closer. 

Edited by ElectricStorm
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3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Marginal risk Tuesday 


ILN taking notice of this.

Focus in this part of the forecast remains solely on the Monday
night/Tuesday morning rain chances, and then storm redevelopment
potential in the dry slot on Tuesday afternoon/evening and the
potential for these to be strong.

Strong shortwave trough will be ejecting up the eastern side of the
developing closed low over KS/NE on Monday night, and will be moving
toward Lake Michigan by sunrise on Tuesday. Closed H5 low opens up
and begins to trend negatively tilted through the day Tuesday.
Surface low Monday night near the KS/MO/IA border area will move
toward Minneapolis and Lake Superior by Tuesday evening. Arcing cold
front will ride eastward through and be entering the ILN CWA at peak
heating or Tuesday evening depending on the model, and therein lies
the concern/problem.

Monday night - Initial ejection of shortwave energy well to the west
of us will drive a band of rain showers across the forecast area
later Monday night with continued depiction of high coverage and
moderate rain amounts. Low level southeasterly to southerly flow
will be strong off the surface, but near surface stable layer should
keep any strong wind gusts from reaching the ground.

North-sound band of showers should continue to traverse the forecast
area during the morning hours with increasing strong ensemble member
agreement that mid level dry slot will wrap around the ejecting low
in IA/MN/WI and overspread the Ohio Valley.  Simulated/synthetic
satellite imagery from most NWP showing some measure of clearing
working from west to east across the area Tuesday afternoon,
allowing temperatures to warm at least into the lower-mid 60s in
eastern Indiana/western Ohio, and this is an upward adjustment from
previous model runs. Boundary layer dewpoints are meager /at worst/
to modest /at best/ with consensus of lower 50s dewpoints riding
northeast in a narrow corridor ahead of the advancing cold front.
Under cold mid levels with steep low level lapse rates, even these
modest dewpoints may allow 250-500 J/kg of surface based CAPE by 21Z
to be established across the Indiana/Ohio border region if optimal
advancement of the moist axis. It is noted that ECMWF/AIFS model
data is slower/less moist and generates much less buoyancy in
comparison to NCEP models, so this will need to be watched as it is
an important difference in convective potential. That being said,
seems to be a growing consensus among the ensemble members in
general that a scattered-broken band of low topped showers or storms
is likely to develop in Indiana and move into the IN/OH border
region by early evening along and ahead of the cold front, weakening
as it loses instability with the setting sun. Forecast
soundings/hodographs across the western half of the ILN forecast
area late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening show an
environment that would support a severe threat if storms become
established and a more optimal dry slot/moisture axis juxtaposition
occurs , with decent low level flow/hodograph curvature suggesting >
150 m2/s2 of effective SRH and adequate linear forcing with the
front for convective maintenance amidst the weak instability.
Limits/concerns would be a backing mid/upper level wind profile
above the strong/veering low level flow, and ECMWF/AIFS depictions
of dewpoints really not ascending beyond the upper 40s to around 50
and a slower cold front advancement into the area until well after
sunset. GEFS-based machine learning probs from CSU have lit up the
OH/IN border region with lower-end wind/hail probabilities, but
degree of flow / curvature of wind fields in 0-1km/0-3km hodographs
suggest a stronger storm could produce all hazards if lower-mid 50s
dewpoints become established. We`ll have to watch evolution of dry
slot/low level moisture axis juxtaposition in upcoming data.

After the system clears the area, pretty quiet weather and
seasonable temps until a shortwave rides through the area on Friday


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Mesoscale Discussion 0292

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024


   Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and

   Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas


   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 


   Valid 241903Z - 242100Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent


   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this

   afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be

   from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado

   will also be possible.


   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection

   forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from

   far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area

   is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. 


   Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will

   help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently

   limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general.


   As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken

   line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells

   producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain

   relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline

   initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more

   favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX,

   as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong

   deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail

   across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the

   narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft

   over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly,

   perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker

   flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a

   supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively

   wider area.


   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024


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9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Marginal risk Tuesday 


Although they have the risk area in Indiana, which I agree with, I would not be surprised if the severe threat starts materializing in Illinois.  Time of day generally looks pretty unfavorable for Illinois, but severe parameters on Tuesday morning look good enough to me for some severe potential.

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Multiple rounds of nice non-severe storms here today, pretty good for a marginal risk. I expected a little more in western OK today but it just didn't happen and most of the enhanced risk didn't see much at all. That being said, looks like there were a few tornadoes in TX and KS so it wasn't a complete bust. 

As for tomorrow, seems like a very fine line between a mostly linear event and a significant tornado event. Some CAMs are hinting at the line breaking up into semi-discrete or even embedded supercells, although lapse rates and instability aren't the best. I think the 10 hatched looks pretty good for now. 

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Sounding like next Monday evening has potential for severe weather around here. Both SPC and now ILN bring it up.


  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   The potential for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS appears low
   from Day 4/Friday into at least Day 5/Saturday. An upper trough/low
   should dig southward along/near the West Coast in this time frame.
   Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually return northward across
   the southern/central Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and OH Valley
   through the upcoming weekend. Medium-range guidance is starting to
   come into better agreement regarding the evolution and eventual
   ejection of this upper trough/low across the western and central
   states, with a more positively tilted solution somewhat more
   probable based on latest ensemble guidance. Regardless, it seems
   likely that a substantial warm sector will be in place across much
   of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley, and perhaps
   even the OH Valley by Day 6/Sunday and Day 7/Monday.

   If a northern-stream upper trough over central Canada can phase with
   the ejecting lower-latitude trough over the western CONUS, as some
   guidance suggests, then a more organized severe threat may exist,
   focused on Day 7/Monday and Day 8/Tuesday. At this point, the
   regions of interest include locations along/east of a surface
   dryline over the southern/central Plains, and along/south of a warm
   front draped across the OH Valley. Both instability and deep-layer
   shear appear strong enough for severe convection. But, there are
   still some substantial differences in the location of greatest
   severe risk next Monday and Tuesday. Trends in guidance will be
   closely monitored. If deterministic and ensemble guidance can come
   into better agreement regarding the evolution of the upper trough,
   along with related surface features, then a broad 15% severe area
   may be needed for next Monday and/or Tuesday in later outlooks.

   ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024


There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend
into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and
whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same
areas more than once. Still a bit too far out to isolate one
specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned
here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the
cumulative effect as we progress into Monday/Monday night. The other
item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late
Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition
perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop
in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together.
And if a more wide-open warm sector is able to develop Monday
afternoon/evening, allowing for a better LL thermodynamic setup,
amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind fields, a few strong to
severe storms could evolve. However, even with this said, there are
too many uncertainties in time and space at this juncture to include
in the HWO.


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