ElectricStorm Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 (edited) A few marginal risk/slight risk days coming up but starting this thread mainly for Sunday 3/24 and perhaps into early next week. Current Day 5 slight risk for parts of the southern plains and if moisture ends up being a little better than currently shown by models, I think this could end up being a pretty significant event. Overall setup Sunday looks pretty good except for moisture so definitely something to watch as we get closer. Edited April 2 by ElectricStorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 23 Meteorologist Share Posted March 23 (edited) Here are the impacts of the dry side of this system 🙃 Edited March 23 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 Ok nadocast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 The initial round of showers around 14-16z tomorrow might kill this event for much of OK, but I could see potential for a few tornadoes in KS and N OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 24 Meteorologist Share Posted March 24 (edited) What a beast of a system. Still looking like a <980mb low is possible. Edited March 24 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Marginal risk Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Wow! Very strong low level jet being forecasted with this storm. 90-95kts 😬 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Looking at models I think tornado potential for today is increasing, especially for SW OK. Should be an interesting day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Marginal risk Tuesday ILN taking notice of this. Quote .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Focus in this part of the forecast remains solely on the Monday night/Tuesday morning rain chances, and then storm redevelopment potential in the dry slot on Tuesday afternoon/evening and the potential for these to be strong. Strong shortwave trough will be ejecting up the eastern side of the developing closed low over KS/NE on Monday night, and will be moving toward Lake Michigan by sunrise on Tuesday. Closed H5 low opens up and begins to trend negatively tilted through the day Tuesday. Surface low Monday night near the KS/MO/IA border area will move toward Minneapolis and Lake Superior by Tuesday evening. Arcing cold front will ride eastward through and be entering the ILN CWA at peak heating or Tuesday evening depending on the model, and therein lies the concern/problem. Monday night - Initial ejection of shortwave energy well to the west of us will drive a band of rain showers across the forecast area later Monday night with continued depiction of high coverage and moderate rain amounts. Low level southeasterly to southerly flow will be strong off the surface, but near surface stable layer should keep any strong wind gusts from reaching the ground. North-sound band of showers should continue to traverse the forecast area during the morning hours with increasing strong ensemble member agreement that mid level dry slot will wrap around the ejecting low in IA/MN/WI and overspread the Ohio Valley. Simulated/synthetic satellite imagery from most NWP showing some measure of clearing working from west to east across the area Tuesday afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm at least into the lower-mid 60s in eastern Indiana/western Ohio, and this is an upward adjustment from previous model runs. Boundary layer dewpoints are meager /at worst/ to modest /at best/ with consensus of lower 50s dewpoints riding northeast in a narrow corridor ahead of the advancing cold front. Under cold mid levels with steep low level lapse rates, even these modest dewpoints may allow 250-500 J/kg of surface based CAPE by 21Z to be established across the Indiana/Ohio border region if optimal advancement of the moist axis. It is noted that ECMWF/AIFS model data is slower/less moist and generates much less buoyancy in comparison to NCEP models, so this will need to be watched as it is an important difference in convective potential. That being said, seems to be a growing consensus among the ensemble members in general that a scattered-broken band of low topped showers or storms is likely to develop in Indiana and move into the IN/OH border region by early evening along and ahead of the cold front, weakening as it loses instability with the setting sun. Forecast soundings/hodographs across the western half of the ILN forecast area late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening show an environment that would support a severe threat if storms become established and a more optimal dry slot/moisture axis juxtaposition occurs , with decent low level flow/hodograph curvature suggesting > 150 m2/s2 of effective SRH and adequate linear forcing with the front for convective maintenance amidst the weak instability. Limits/concerns would be a backing mid/upper level wind profile above the strong/veering low level flow, and ECMWF/AIFS depictions of dewpoints really not ascending beyond the upper 40s to around 50 and a slower cold front advancement into the area until well after sunset. GEFS-based machine learning probs from CSU have lit up the OH/IN border region with lower-end wind/hail probabilities, but degree of flow / curvature of wind fields in 0-1km/0-3km hodographs suggest a stronger storm could produce all hazards if lower-mid 50s dewpoints become established. We`ll have to watch evolution of dry slot/low level moisture axis juxtaposition in upcoming data. After the system clears the area, pretty quiet weather and seasonable temps until a shortwave rides through the area on Friday night/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 21 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN taking notice of this. Yeah if dew trend higher the threat of severe weather will go up. As is I think Tuesday is worthy of a slight risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Enhanced risk added today for hail. 10 hatched tornado area added for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Spoiler Mesoscale Discussion 0292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241903Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general. As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX, as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly, perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 24 Meteorologist Share Posted March 24 (edited) Wall of dust coming in Edited March 24 by ClicheVortex2014 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 First confirmed tornado of the day SW of Texola, not sure if it's still down or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Marginal risk Tuesday Although they have the risk area in Indiana, which I agree with, I would not be surprised if the severe threat starts materializing in Illinois. Time of day generally looks pretty unfavorable for Illinois, but severe parameters on Tuesday morning look good enough to me for some severe potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 25 Meteorologist Share Posted March 25 (edited) Pretty decent dryline Edited March 25 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Multiple rounds of nice non-severe storms here today, pretty good for a marginal risk. I expected a little more in western OK today but it just didn't happen and most of the enhanced risk didn't see much at all. That being said, looks like there were a few tornadoes in TX and KS so it wasn't a complete bust. As for tomorrow, seems like a very fine line between a mostly linear event and a significant tornado event. Some CAMs are hinting at the line breaking up into semi-discrete or even embedded supercells, although lapse rates and instability aren't the best. I think the 10 hatched looks pretty good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Risk area was expanded for Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Risk area was expanded for Tuesday. I think this will be upgraded to a slight risk next outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Today already looks pretty linear, although we could see some embedded supercells. Not expecting a lot of tornadoes today but anything that is able to produce could drop a strong one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Under marginal for tomorrow. Possible upgrade maybe depending if that dry slot forecasted will verify and sun is a factor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 25 Meteorologist Share Posted March 25 (edited) Jackson has some destabilizing to do if this enhanced risk is gonna verify... but that wind profile 😳 Edited March 25 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Won't take much to mix down some damaging winds given the very impressive windfields 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Razor thin band of storms approaching the IN/OH border here. Not much to look at, but probably some good gusts embedded in them if you get under one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Sounding like next Monday evening has potential for severe weather around here. Both SPC and now ILN bring it up. SPC Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The potential for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS appears low from Day 4/Friday into at least Day 5/Saturday. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast in this time frame. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through the upcoming weekend. Medium-range guidance is starting to come into better agreement regarding the evolution and eventual ejection of this upper trough/low across the western and central states, with a more positively tilted solution somewhat more probable based on latest ensemble guidance. Regardless, it seems likely that a substantial warm sector will be in place across much of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley, and perhaps even the OH Valley by Day 6/Sunday and Day 7/Monday. If a northern-stream upper trough over central Canada can phase with the ejecting lower-latitude trough over the western CONUS, as some guidance suggests, then a more organized severe threat may exist, focused on Day 7/Monday and Day 8/Tuesday. At this point, the regions of interest include locations along/east of a surface dryline over the southern/central Plains, and along/south of a warm front draped across the OH Valley. Both instability and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for severe convection. But, there are still some substantial differences in the location of greatest severe risk next Monday and Tuesday. Trends in guidance will be closely monitored. If deterministic and ensemble guidance can come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the upper trough, along with related surface features, then a broad 15% severe area may be needed for next Monday and/or Tuesday in later outlooks. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 ILN Quote There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same areas more than once. Still a bit too far out to isolate one specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the cumulative effect as we progress into Monday/Monday night. The other item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together. And if a more wide-open warm sector is able to develop Monday afternoon/evening, allowing for a better LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind fields, a few strong to severe storms could evolve. However, even with this said, there are too many uncertainties in time and space at this juncture to include in the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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