snowlover2 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Appears we will have an early severe weather threat in about a week. SPC has a day 6 area in the eastern Plains to western OV and a day 7 area from the OV to the south. Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into Wednesday. A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity. Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the southern High Plains is forecast. A few days of airmass modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on Saturday. Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east. Model run-to-run continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected eastward progression of the trough. Will defer the possibility of an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in details related to earlier days becomes more focused. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Definitely something to keep a close eye on. Now even Reed Timmer has made a post about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 We’ve got hail! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) It's a long ways out still so obviously things can change but I'm not really seeing anything that suggests this will be a major outbreak, despite some of the hype I've seen on social media. Wednesday looks sloppy and could easily just end up being a minor squall line. Tuesday looks a little better overall but it looks like the better forcing isn't lined up with the better moisture. Should be a strong EML as well for the southern/western part of the outlook area, and I doubt eastern OK ends up seeing much but we'll see. Still nearly a week out so a lot can and probably will change. Edited February 22 by ElectricStorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, OxfordOh_ said: We’ve got hail! How big were they? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: How big were they? I would say between pea & dime size 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 0z GFS looks pretty favorable in IL for Tuesday, chances could increase for a more notable event around there if future runs are consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23 Author Share Posted February 23 ILN now mentioning possible severe late tuesday. Quote .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Return flow will provide a quick warm-up on Sunday with southerly winds persisting through Tuesday. Model consensus shows a strong low pressure system developing and moving into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Supporting upper level trough will dig southeast Wednesday before shifting toward the East Coast on Thursday. Temperatures ahead of the system could reach near daily records on Tuesday. Will need to watch severe storm potential late on Tuesday with dewpoints reaching near 60 degrees and a strong vertical wind field in place. In addition, model systems show gusty winds associated with the cold front Tuesday night, with the European Ensemble showing greater than 50% probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph. Will fine tune this potential as confidence improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 CIPS analogs for Tuesday https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F108&rundt=2024022312&map=thbSVR Wednesday is still looking sloppy, Tuesday still looks like the best forcing and moisture won't line up so I still don't expect a significant event there, but still needs to be watched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Tuesday still looking good for severe weather. Wouldn't be surprised to see an enhanced risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 2/22/2024 at 2:25 PM, ElectricStorm said: It's a long ways out still so obviously things can change but I'm not really seeing anything that suggests this will be a major outbreak, despite some of the hype I've seen on social media. Wednesday looks sloppy and could easily just end up being a minor squall line. Tuesday looks a little better overall but it looks like the better forcing isn't lined up with the better moisture. Should be a strong EML as well for the southern/western part of the outlook area, and I doubt eastern OK ends up seeing much but we'll see. Still nearly a week out so a lot can and probably will change. The fact that we're discussing a February severe outbreak is major by itself. Will it compare to a March/April/May outbreak? Probably not, because it's February!!! Anyways, these are high probabilities for severe: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 FWIW the outbreak will probably start in the ArkLaTex region on Monday and expand northeast from there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: FWIW the outbreak will probably start in the ArkLaTex region on Monday and expand northeast from there That is just a wee bit of a cap on the 3km Nam 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Basically any kind of severe wx north of I-70 or would be noteworthy at this time of year. Severe climo is obviously increasingly hostile with northward extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think IL could be a more favorable area for severe on Tuesday, if there's going to be decent tornado potential it will probably be there if storm mode is favorable. Still a little too early to tell for sure but that's the area I'm keeping an eye on for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Slight risk issued for Tuesday. Might have to watch for an upgrade to ENH in IL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Weird that’s where they decide to place the slight risk hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think the main question is whether moisture mixes out during the afternoon, and if it does, how quickly can it recover as we head toward evening and mixing abates somewhat. Other than that, setup has some factors going for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 21z RAP mixes out dews quite a bit on Tuesday afternoon, especially in Illinois, before they rebound toward evening. This will play a role in timing/initiation of convection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) Gfs has an interesting look. Edited February 26 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Some pretty strong wording from INDY. Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2024 - Continuing to monitor potential for severe weather, primarily late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Primary concern for the long term period remains focused on the potential for some form of severe weather for Tuesday into Tuesday night across the lower Midwest into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks regions. While confidence continues to grow with respect to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, particularly late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night, significant uncertainty remains with respect to the exact details, and degree of resultant severe threat. A fairly wide range of outcomes remain in play, from a fairly ordinary, somewhat messy, low-end severe event, to a higher end regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes. Some guidance trends are encouraging; e.g. the Euro`s trend toward a modestly less amplified system and somewhat less favorable deep layer flow configuration/slightly weaker surface reflection, but there remains ample signal to remain vigilant for regional severe weather potential in and around the areas outlined in this morning`s day 3 convective outlook, including a few factors that keep higher end events on the table. Ensemble meridional (v component) flow anomalies (1-2 standard deviations) during the period of concern Tuesday into Tuesday night remain high, but a modest shift is noted to stronger zonal (u component) flow anomalies, reflecting the flattening/modest deamplification of the overall synoptic wave in some of the guidance suite. Dynamically speaking, strong deep layer shear and at least moderate low level shear remain very strongly favored, with more uncertainty relating to exact shear configuration/juxtaposition with thermodynamic support and resultant convective mode, along with the degree/coverage of threat for hail/wind/tornadoes. Broadly speaking, expect a wave of convective showers and a few thunderstorms to accompany the initial surge of low level moisture advection late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a bit of a midday break before additional convection develops to our west along a prefrontal confluence zone/moisture discontinuity. Should ingredients come together favorably, rapid development of severe thunderstorms over a widespread area could occur, with some potential for discrete convection to persist into central Indiana, though depending upon the orientation of the deep layer flow, upstream coalescence into a QLCS could occur prior to this activity reaching the local area. Multiple factors for or against a more significant severe threat remain up in the air, keeping the range of outcomes broad as previously stated. That said, CIPS analogs and experimental machine learning severe threat guidance from Colorado State University continue to suggest at least modest potential for a severe weather outbreak in or near the region Tuesday-Tuesday night, as they have for several days now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 0z HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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