February 22-25, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[MaineJay]

Gonna give it another go I think.  This may be the final storm we surf in this current set of waves.   EPO looks to go fairly positive in the wake, so a little Pacific air flooding in very likely means a warm end of Feb into early March. 

Not to say March won't tease us with some chances, especially our handful of northern members, but we might be in the horse latitudes for a couple weeks.

 As per my style, only really needing some simple H5 and spread to kick this off.  Kinda like this setup at D10.

 Leaving the dates wide for a little wiggle room. 

GEFS individual members so folks can see what's at the buffet. 

 

[MaineJay]

CPC analogs, not a single in in the last 30 years, digging the 50s though. 

[ionizer]

dead?

[Sentinel]

21 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Gonna give it another go I think.  This may be the final storm we surf in this current set of waves.   EPO looks to go fairly positive in the wake, so a little Pacific air flooding in very likely means a warm end of Feb into early March. 

Not to say March won't tease us with some chances, especially our handful of northern members, but we might be in the horse latitudes for a couple weeks.

 As per my style, only really needing some simple H5 and spread to kick this off.  Kinda like this setup at D10.

 Leaving the dates wide for a little wiggle room. 

GEFS individual members so folks can see what's at the buffet. 

 

I agree with you. I like this set up and time frame. 

[MaineJay]

6 hours ago, ionizer said:

dead?

[MaineJay]

[MaineJay]

EPS with spread

 

GEFS look a bit faster and less deity with the trof, but this might be timing differences. 

[AceGikmo]

And just like that, we're getting some Op. action - looking like most are hinting at some form of a more classic Miller B

[Squepp]

2 hours ago, AceGikmo said:

And just like that, we're getting some Op. action - looking like most are hinting at some form of a more classic Miller B

R/S battleground for me here at the moment. Smell the rain and such😄

[AceGikmo]

14 minutes ago, Squepp said:

R/S battleground for me here at the moment. Smell the rain and such😄

And that's what we call a typical mid-Atlantic winter

[LUCC]

33 minutes ago, Squepp said:

R/S battleground for me here at the moment. Smell the rain and such😄

If that low keeps moving north and doesn't transfer to the coast right then and there in that image we all are going to get rain.

 

Edit: Next frame looks like it does! 👀

 

Edited February 14, 2024 by LUCC

[AceGikmo]

10 minutes ago, LUCC said:

If that low keeps moving north and doesn't transfer to the coast right then and there in that image we all are going to get rain.

 

Edit: Next frame looks like it does! 👀

 

Ooooh boy, first digital snow of the new thread. Ready for my heart to be broken again

[Doorman]

lock it in......👽

[marathongoalie]

He started mentioning the one that just passed while it was over Asia...

[Rickrd]

1 hour ago, Doorman said:

lock it in......👽

 

[MaineJay]

Only really focused on the longwave for now.

 

[Burr]

Effing no.  No effing way.  I’m flying away for a family vacation and I will throw a effing temper tantrum that will be worthy of tiktok if it is delayed because of a snow storm.  

[PA road DAWG]

57 minutes ago, Burr said:

Effing no.  No effing way.  I’m flying away for a family vacation and I will throw a effing temper tantrum that will be worthy of tiktok if it is delayed because of a snow storm.  

Fly out of Avoca airport near Scranton.  It doesn’t snow there.  Hasn’t since 2017.  

[Doorman]

10 hours ago, Rickrd said:

 

has your snow melted yet?????  

Recipe here is easy as   A-B-C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Bash Trash or Stash

dm ain't care 

Edited February 15, 2024 by Doorman

[MaineJay]

[AceGikmo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this our first true long wave system setting up of the winter? An even more pronounced one might be entering the US for the end of the month and seeing it on a map had me thinking that I actually might not have seen any waves of this amplitude this year

[MaineJay]

44 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this our first true long wave system setting up of the winter? An even more pronounced one might be entering the US for the end of the month and seeing it on a map had me thinking that I actually might not have seen any waves of this amplitude this year

We've had a couple brief +PNA periods. This setup doesn't seem to currently have the best Western ridge, but does have a respectable vortex INVOF Hudson Bay.

 Just have to watch how the shortwaves move through and modulate the long wave.

[Doorman]

37 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We've had a couple brief +PNA periods. This setup doesn't seem to currently have the best Western ridge, but does have a respectable vortex INVOF Hudson Bay.

 Just have to watch how the shortwaves move through and modulate the long wave.

👍

for example .....

this guy here at Day Five

western ridge builder = downstream trough (EC)

legit signal ATM

long range tracking tutorials on the house    

LMFAO

Edited February 15, 2024 by Doorman

[PA road DAWG]

No real blocking in place.   This has high latitudes written all over it 

[marathongoalie]

Well see...