ElectricStorm Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) Ongoing severe weather event now with a slight risk across parts of TX and a marginal risk for W and C OK. No watches up yet but there is a tor warning up in TX, nothing confirmed yet Edit: Confirmed now Edited February 10 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Theres no thread for the storms today, so i'll put this here. PDS tornado in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Theres no thread for the storms today, so i'll put this here. PDS tornado in Wisconsin. Tornadoes in Wisconsin and no snow in February these last two winters have been amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Today was not completely unexpected, but I keep imagining what it would've been with higher dewpoints. This stuff is happening with dews under 50. Most other factors are favorable though. It's early, but I think Spring could be fairly active in terms of severe wx, especially if we do get a pretty rapid collapse of the Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I've seen catch-all threads at other boards. Perhaps it is something worth considering here... a severe thread for events that are isolated/marginal/not really worthy of a separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Went ahead and extended this thread to include this next system. Slight risk for Sunday and Monday so far. Doesn't look too crazy right now but anything for February is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Went ahead and extended this thread to include this next system. Slight risk for Sunday and Monday so far. Doesn't look too crazy right now but anything for February is notable. Tornado warning expired south of Little Rock, this STORM-NET thing has been incredible to see verify, we'll see if this storm does anything. Showing elevated probabilities right now. Edited February 10 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Oh well I guess it may have already verified a bit earlier and I just missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Tornado warning expired south of Little Rock, this Storm-NET thing has been incredible to see verify, we'll see if this storm does anything. Showing elevated probabilities right now. Where did you find that tornado probability chart that looks super interesting, especially with the season coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Also the SPC 2023 review page is up now https://www.spc.noaa.gov/media/year-in-review/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 13 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Where did you find that tornado probability chart that looks super interesting, especially with the season coming up. This is the guy who made it, it uses AI in real-time to determine the 1 hour probability of a tornado forming, it gives some ridiculous lead times if you take it seriously(up to 45 minutes in advance sometimes). It has seen some incredible verification, including yesterday's EF-2 in Wisconsin! This is the guy's X page https://twitter.com/Brady_Wx Here's a link to the product https://data.mesoscaleforecast.com/stormnet Here's a video overlaying STORM-NET probabilities with yesterday's storm that produced the EF-2 Edited February 10 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Just now, Neoncyclone said: This is the guy who made it, it uses AI in real-time to determine the 1 hour probability of a tornado forming, it gives some ridiculous lead times if you take it seriously(up to 45 minutes in advance sometimes). It has seen some incredible verification, including yesterday's EF-3 in Wisconsin! This is the guy's X page https://twitter.com/Brady_Wx Here's a video overlaying STORM-NET probabilities with yesterday's storm that produced the EF-3 Oh wow, really interested to see how that performs during the season in a couple months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ElectricStorm said: Oh wow, really interested to see how that performs during the season in a couple months Edited my post to include the link to the product so you can use it :). He has mentioned that once V1.0 releases it will cost money to use, but said he wants to make it affordable, but for now it's free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Overnight event about to start soon Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 110240Z - 110415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight. The primary threat is expected to be very large hail, though there will also be some threat for isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level low is moving eastward across southern NM this evening, with an attendant jet maximum moving across northern Mexico. A surface boundary has gradually sagged southward this evening across parts of south-central TX, but this boundary may tend to stall as a surface low develops along the front in response to the approaching upper low. Near and north of the boundary, low-level east-southeasterly flow continues to transport moisture into parts of the Edwards Plateau, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight, as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low impinges upon an increasingly unstable environment, with MUCAPE expected to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range at the time of initiation. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures, including the potential for supercells and perhaps some upscale growth with time. With steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft, any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter). Storms are generally expected to remain somewhat elevated along/north of the surface boundary. However, any storm that can be sustained near the boundary and become surface-based could also pose a threat of a tornado, given favorable low-level shear/SRH. Any near-surface-based storm or stronger elevated cluster could also pose some threat for isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is likely prior to 04Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Tomorrow could be a pretty big deal in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Just STORM-NET doing its thing. Edited February 11 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) STORM-NET has very high probabilities right now, so I checked the warnings, and there's a observed tornado warning. Edited February 11 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 radar overlayed with the probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Quote recast Discussion SPC AC 111627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Well this is certainly shaping up to be a pretty dangerous day. I hope people are paying attention since I'm sure they'll be a lot of people watching the super bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Looking like luckily the higher severe potential never really materialized today, it definitely wasn't your typical deep south environment for tornadoes so I had my doubts. These complex setups are always super interesting though nonetheless. Edited February 12 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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