February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation

[Penn State]

On Friday, the temperature soared to a record 80° in Washington D.C. in what was the pinnacle of our January Thaw. One can almost sense the cherry blossoms awakening from their winter slumber. 🌸 However, Ol’ Man Winter may have one.. er.. several last laughs in the coming month or so. ☃️ There are indications of a pattern change over the next few weeks.. Isn’t there always? lol.. The month of February has been touted as “one to watch”.. especially mid-to-late month. As a matter of fact, the 500mb anomaly looks quite intriguing around Valentine’s Day.. but that’s another story for another thread!

The story of this speculative storm threat begins in February of 1969. Yes.. late February of 1969 is the #1 analog for this time period according to the CPC’s 8-14 day forecast. So what? ..You may ask. Well, it so happens to be the 55th anniversary of the infamous “100 hour storm” that impacted parts of New England including Maine, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. The storm ranks 11th on the NESIS scale.. but only because of the relative localized impacts. The storm had a large surface area of amounts greater than 30” due to its duration of nearly four days! Mt. Washington recorded 98” of snow.. and nearby Pinkham Notch recorded 77”. 👀.. Now, that’s not to say that this storm will replicate those results.. but a retrograde has been modeled, so who knows? At any rate.. you can read more about this infamous 100 hour storm here.

Regardless of analog.. it is clear that a strong storm signal has emerged during the first week of February. Teleconnections are briefly favorable, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the potential for a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA. The ECMWF shows a negative EPO as well. Ensemble guidance also indicates a strong storm signal; however, individual members have a wide envelope.. and to be honest.. many members are well south and east, OTS. Considering an organic forecasting approach.. there’s signal on the BSR as well, though it is also solidly OTS. Operational model guidance is also mixed.. as is to be expected at this range. The ECMWF is currently the only model guidance that indicates potential widespread impacts in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. There’s also been quite a bit of buzz on social media.. but that’s largely neither her nor there. 

In my honest opinion.. the middle to latter part of the month holds the greatest potential; however.. I’m always happy to have something to track! Don’t sleep on this threat though.. there is some promise here. Anyways, additional details and data are in the spoiler. Stay tuned… and as always, Happy Tracking 🤓

Inspiration | 00z ECMWF 

00z Ensembles | Hour 240 

EPS

GEFS

CMCE

 

Spoiler

Ensemble Guidance | 500 MB Anomaly @ Hour 240

EPS

GEFS

CMCE

Operational Guidance | Surface + 500 MB @ Hours 192-240

ECMWF

GFS

GDPS

Teleconnections | ECMWF + GFS

AO

NAO

PNA

EPO

Organic Forecasting | BSR

Analogs | CPC 8-14 Day Forecast 

[Squepp]

Great early look. In the words of the great Snobal, I am liking this timeframe. GFS saw this storm on 6z as well but had an OTS solution. Cold air was in same place

Edited January 27, 2024 by Squepp

[Squepp]

GFS coming in south... wayyyyy south. Sends the storm to the bahamas

[Undertakerson2.0]

Same old story - nice track, not enough cold

[Undertakerson2.0]

Euro looks to make a run at somthin

[Undertakerson2.0]

JAX Rule initiated - however, will the northern low move over to 50/50 and bring the S piece up in its wake?

 

Edit -it does try. Looks to be "pushy" out by Rockies - too much so? 

Edited January 27, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[MaineJay]

Why go to Scotland, when Scotland's weather can come to you.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Boom! It ignites deep to sub 970 off of Hateras

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Fully phased in now and bombing at BM - 962mb

 

 

Edited January 27, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[MaineJay]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Boom! It ignites deep to sub 970 off of Hateras

 

Looks warm core.

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Fully phased in now and bombing at BM - 962mb

 

Wonder if the blizzard of 1888 will come up in the CIPS.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Whoa 

Just now, MaineJay said:

Wonder if the blizzard of 1888 will come up in the CIPS.

No matter what, it's a monster - and forms the Eastern Lobe of the Omega Block 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Hr228 - SLP is at Clapper's backyard. From there, it drops down to WV and then out to the BM again after saying Hi to Bouncer. 

This is a wild azzed run for sure. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Penn State]

962! Wow.. Certainly fits with that BSR retrograde stuff. 

[Penn State]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

lol.. Great minds think alike. You beat me to it! 

[Penn State]

GEFS at 12z.. Definitely S+E.. but better than the alternative. 

[kdskidoo]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

[Penn State]

ICON looks similar to the rest of modeling at 180.. not that it needs to matter, but just additional support. 

[Penn State]

GraphCast.. OTS

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, Penn State said:

962! Wow.. Certainly fits with that BSR retrograde stuff. 

Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question.

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question.

Probably the Atlantic lol.. But, I’m gonna keep my dreams alive for the moment.

[Penn State]

Korean model.. for giggles. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question.

 

IIRC - the correlation is, most often, NW of the depiction within the BSR images

Of course, temperature impacts, as indicated by this run, and implications are vital.  It's so strong it floods 850 with warmth - the W edge of that, where it clashes with dynamically cooled column - certainly can get crushed. 

Edited January 27, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]