Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 On Friday, the temperature soared to a record 80° in Washington D.C. in what was the pinnacle of our January Thaw. One can almost sense the cherry blossoms awakening from their winter slumber. 🌸 However, Ol’ Man Winter may have one.. er.. several last laughs in the coming month or so. ☃️ There are indications of a pattern change over the next few weeks.. Isn’t there always? lol.. The month of February has been touted as “one to watch”.. especially mid-to-late month. As a matter of fact, the 500mb anomaly looks quite intriguing around Valentine’s Day.. but that’s another story for another thread! The story of this speculative storm threat begins in February of 1969. Yes.. late February of 1969 is the #1 analog for this time period according to the CPC’s 8-14 day forecast. So what? ..You may ask. Well, it so happens to be the 55th anniversary of the infamous “100 hour storm” that impacted parts of New England including Maine, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. The storm ranks 11th on the NESIS scale.. but only because of the relative localized impacts. The storm had a large surface area of amounts greater than 30” due to its duration of nearly four days! Mt. Washington recorded 98” of snow.. and nearby Pinkham Notch recorded 77”. 👀.. Now, that’s not to say that this storm will replicate those results.. but a retrograde has been modeled, so who knows? At any rate.. you can read more about this infamous 100 hour storm here. Regardless of analog.. it is clear that a strong storm signal has emerged during the first week of February. Teleconnections are briefly favorable, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the potential for a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA. The ECMWF shows a negative EPO as well. Ensemble guidance also indicates a strong storm signal; however, individual members have a wide envelope.. and to be honest.. many members are well south and east, OTS. Considering an organic forecasting approach.. there’s signal on the BSR as well, though it is also solidly OTS. Operational model guidance is also mixed.. as is to be expected at this range. The ECMWF is currently the only model guidance that indicates potential widespread impacts in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. There’s also been quite a bit of buzz on social media.. but that’s largely neither her nor there. In my honest opinion.. the middle to latter part of the month holds the greatest potential; however.. I’m always happy to have something to track! Don’t sleep on this threat though.. there is some promise here. Anyways, additional details and data are in the spoiler. Stay tuned… and as always, Happy Tracking 🤓 Inspiration | 00z ECMWF 00z Ensembles | Hour 240 EPS GEFS CMCE Spoiler Ensemble Guidance | 500 MB Anomaly @ Hour 240 EPS GEFS CMCE Operational Guidance | Surface + 500 MB @ Hours 192-240 ECMWF GFS GDPS Teleconnections | ECMWF + GFS AO NAO PNA EPO Organic Forecasting | BSR Analogs | CPC 8-14 Day Forecast 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) Great early look. In the words of the great Snobal, I am liking this timeframe. GFS saw this storm on 6z as well but had an OTS solution. Cold air was in same place Edited January 27 by Squepp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS coming in south... wayyyyy south. Sends the storm to the bahamas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Same old story - nice track, not enough cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro looks to make a run at somthin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) JAX Rule initiated - however, will the northern low move over to 50/50 and bring the S piece up in its wake? Edit -it does try. Looks to be "pushy" out by Rockies - too much so? Edited January 27 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 Why go to Scotland, when Scotland's weather can come to you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Boom! It ignites deep to sub 970 off of Hateras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) Fully phased in now and bombing at BM - 962mb Edited January 27 by Undertakerson2.0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Boom! It ignites deep to sub 970 off of Hateras Looks warm core. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Fully phased in now and bombing at BM - 962mb Wonder if the blizzard of 1888 will come up in the CIPS. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Whoa Just now, MaineJay said: Wonder if the blizzard of 1888 will come up in the CIPS. No matter what, it's a monster - and forms the Eastern Lobe of the Omega Block 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hr228 - SLP is at Clapper's backyard. From there, it drops down to WV and then out to the BM again after saying Hi to Bouncer. This is a wild azzed run for sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 962! Wow.. Certainly fits with that BSR retrograde stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: lol.. Great minds think alike. You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 GEFS at 12z.. Definitely S+E.. but better than the alternative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 ICON looks similar to the rest of modeling at 180.. not that it needs to matter, but just additional support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 GraphCast.. OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, Penn State said: 962! Wow.. Certainly fits with that BSR retrograde stuff. Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question. Probably the Atlantic lol.. But, I’m gonna keep my dreams alive for the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 Korean model.. for giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question. IIRC - the correlation is, most often, NW of the depiction within the BSR images Of course, temperature impacts, as indicated by this run, and implications are vital. It's so strong it floods 850 with warmth - the W edge of that, where it clashes with dynamically cooled column - certainly can get crushed. Edited January 27 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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