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February 21-23, 2022 | Severe Weather


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First severe weather event of the new forum! 

I'm in the slight risk area today so this could get interesting, not expecting anything crazy but we'll see. This should be yet another nocturnal event so hopefully everyone is prepared. Tomorrow looks interesting as well for areas further east. 




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It looks like that Slight Risk for Today appears to be an Overnighter again, the first one busted with only 1 Tornado Warning near Duncan, OK

Only time will tell if this one busts or shows itself, I may need to wake up in the middle of the night again to watch the storms, Lol.

Edited by Iceresistance
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Here's the new day two outlooks.






   Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat,
   wind damage, and large hail will be possible Tuesday from Arkansas
   northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley.  Severe thunderstorms and
   a tornado risk are also possible across mainly parts of Mississippi
   and Alabama Tuesday evening into the overnight.

   ...Lower OH Valley southward into parts of the Deep South...
   Model guidance is trending towards a scenario with two distinct
   potential severe-risk corridors on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  The
   first scenario will focus near the confluence of the MS/OH and the
   TN/OH rivers from southeast MO east-northeastward into western KY
   during the day in closer proximity to the surface low over the mid
   MS Valley.  A potent mid-level speed max embedded within a
   southwesterly flow regime, will move quickly northeastward from the
   Ozarks into the OH Valley during the day.  Strong low-level shear
   aided in part by a 50+ kt LLJ will shift north-northeastward from
   the MS Valley during the morning and into OH and KY by late
   afternoon.  Primarily linear modes are expected with the daytime
   activity across the lower OH Valley with damaging gusts a
   possibility with the stronger storms.  Given the expected convective
   mode favoring linear convection, a QLCS tornado risk is also
   possible given the 50-65 kt southwesterly 700 mb flow.  It seems the
   severe risk will likely wane across the OH Valley by the evening as
   instability lessens and storms move into increasingly less unstable
   air farther east.  

   The remaining severe threat will likely focus farther south across
   the lower MS Valley and into AL by the early evening.  The northern
   extent of more appreciable low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in
   the 64-66 deg F range) will aid in the development of weak buoyancy
   (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) from central MS northeastward into
   northwest/far western AL.  The latest forecast thinking is a
   mesoscale corridor for supercells may be favored from the northern
   part of central MS northeastward into northwest AL during the
   evening and early overnight.  The aforementioned low-level moisture
   coupled with 300 ms/s2 0-1km SRH and favorably curved, long
   hodographs support a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that
   manage to develop.  A gradual lessening of the severe risk is
   expected during the late overnight hours Tuesday into early
   Wednesday morning across parts of the Deep South.

   ..Smith.. 02/21/2022


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Mesoscale Discussion 0159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

   Areas affected...portions of west Texas and extreme southeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 212028Z - 212230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts
   of west Texas and extreme southeast New Mexico may initially produce
   strong, downburst winds into early evening. A threat for hail will
   increase with eastward extent later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...High-based convection has been deepening across parts
   of southwest TX and far southeast NM over the past hour or so. This
   activity is well west of the surface dryline, which extends
   southward across western OK to near Wichita Falls, TX and
   southwestward toward the TX Big Bend vicinity. Investigation of 19z
   RAP forecast soundings indicate a shallow layer of elevated
   instability between 500-700 mb, with MUCAPE values around 100-200
   J/kg. As increasing ascent overspreads the region over the next few
   hours, isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to
   develop. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermal profiles with large T-Td
   spread (generally around 50-60 deg F) will support sporadic strong
   downburst winds with initially little precipitation. As convection
   spread east/northeast this evening and encounters the surface
   dryline and increasing low-level moisture, potential will increase
   for stronger convection capable of hail and damaging gusts. A watch
   may be needed for portions of the MCD area within the next 2-3

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 02/21/2022



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Oh boy: 


 Mesoscale Discussion 0161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

   Areas affected...northwest Texas into southern and eastern
   Oklahoma...parts of western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 220041Z - 220315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging winds and wind-driven
   hail may develop through this evening over northwest Texas,
   spreading across southern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas
   overnight. A couple brief tornadoes may also occur later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...As an 80 kt midlevel speed max moves across the region,
   850 mb theta-e advection will be enhanced by a 50 kt southwesterly
   low-level jet. Though midlevel warming is also forecast, the
   increasingly moisture will lead to destabilization from northern TX
   into southern/eastern OK and into AR later tonight. This will occur
   well ahead of the cold front, which is currently approaching the
   KS/OK border.

   00Z soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, and
   strong deep-layer shear. The FWD sounding is less capped than OKC
   given more robust boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 F.
   The MAF sounding also shows midlevel moistening amongst the existing

   Lift with the upper wave will interact with increasing low-level
   moisture this evening and overnight, and scattered severe storms are
   expected to form north of the Abilene TX area and travel quickly
   northeast across OK and into AR.

   Forecast soundings indicate long hodographs with steep lapse rates
   aloft. This, in combination with latest CAM output suggest mixed
   storm modes are possible, the most likely being forward-propagating
   line segments or bows producing damaging wind and wind-driven hail.
   Rotation may occur with some of the strongest storms given effective
   SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, but tornado risk will largely be dependent on
   storm mode and whether supercells can occur vs a more linear mode.
   As such, a watch is likely to be issued prior to 03Z.


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   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   720 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Oklahoma
     Northern Texas

   * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 720 PM
     until 200 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to steadily intensify this
   evening from northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. This will be as
   steady low-level moistening and modest destabilization occurs in
   advance of an approaching upper-level system. Damaging winds and
   large hail will be the primary hazards, but a tornado risk cannot be
   ruled out, particularly in areas near/east of the Interstate 35
   corridor of far north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
   of Abilene TX to 35 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).


   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce


   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector




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  • Meteorologist

Not too often you see strong convection develop out of stratiform rain that quick

Should see the tornado threat gradually increase as the cells become surface-based, enter better moisture, and low-level shear.


Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not too often you see strong convection develop out of stratiform rain that quick

Should see the tornado threat gradually increase as the cells become surface-based, enter better moisture, and low-level shear.


Looks like the Supercell will miss DFW to the North, but Denton & Mckinney might get hammered from this.

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  • Meteorologist

A big issue with the storms so far is that they're fairly high-based due to weak low-level moisture. 1400m-1600m cloud base is pretty hard to overcome without significant help from low-level shear... which, to be fair, we might have by now. Need to see the LCL lower without the low-levels becoming stable as a result. Delicate balance right now.


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  • Meteorologist

The formerly dominant supercell now looks like it's heading more northeast than the one heading for Fort Worth's burbs which looks more east-northeast based on recent scans. So that one is more likely to dig into the deeper moisture. We'll see though... it's been interesting so far.


Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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