ElectricStorm Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 First severe weather event of the new forum! I'm in the slight risk area today so this could get interesting, not expecting anything crazy but we'll see. This should be yet another nocturnal event so hopefully everyone is prepared. Tomorrow looks interesting as well for areas further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) It looks like that Slight Risk for Today appears to be an Overnighter again, the first one busted with only 1 Tornado Warning near Duncan, OK Only time will tell if this one busts or shows itself, I may need to wake up in the middle of the night again to watch the storms, Lol. Edited February 21, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Here's the new day two outlooks. Quote ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat, wind damage, and large hail will be possible Tuesday from Arkansas northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms and a tornado risk are also possible across mainly parts of Mississippi and Alabama Tuesday evening into the overnight. ...Lower OH Valley southward into parts of the Deep South... Model guidance is trending towards a scenario with two distinct potential severe-risk corridors on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The first scenario will focus near the confluence of the MS/OH and the TN/OH rivers from southeast MO east-northeastward into western KY during the day in closer proximity to the surface low over the mid MS Valley. A potent mid-level speed max embedded within a southwesterly flow regime, will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks into the OH Valley during the day. Strong low-level shear aided in part by a 50+ kt LLJ will shift north-northeastward from the MS Valley during the morning and into OH and KY by late afternoon. Primarily linear modes are expected with the daytime activity across the lower OH Valley with damaging gusts a possibility with the stronger storms. Given the expected convective mode favoring linear convection, a QLCS tornado risk is also possible given the 50-65 kt southwesterly 700 mb flow. It seems the severe risk will likely wane across the OH Valley by the evening as instability lessens and storms move into increasingly less unstable air farther east. The remaining severe threat will likely focus farther south across the lower MS Valley and into AL by the early evening. The northern extent of more appreciable low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 64-66 deg F range) will aid in the development of weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) from central MS northeastward into northwest/far western AL. The latest forecast thinking is a mesoscale corridor for supercells may be favored from the northern part of central MS northeastward into northwest AL during the evening and early overnight. The aforementioned low-level moisture coupled with 300 ms/s2 0-1km SRH and favorably curved, long hodographs support a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that manage to develop. A gradual lessening of the severe risk is expected during the late overnight hours Tuesday into early Wednesday morning across parts of the Deep South. ..Smith.. 02/21/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 Areas affected...portions of west Texas and extreme southeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 212028Z - 212230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of west Texas and extreme southeast New Mexico may initially produce strong, downburst winds into early evening. A threat for hail will increase with eastward extent later this evening. DISCUSSION...High-based convection has been deepening across parts of southwest TX and far southeast NM over the past hour or so. This activity is well west of the surface dryline, which extends southward across western OK to near Wichita Falls, TX and southwestward toward the TX Big Bend vicinity. Investigation of 19z RAP forecast soundings indicate a shallow layer of elevated instability between 500-700 mb, with MUCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg. As increasing ascent overspreads the region over the next few hours, isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermal profiles with large T-Td spread (generally around 50-60 deg F) will support sporadic strong downburst winds with initially little precipitation. As convection spread east/northeast this evening and encounters the surface dryline and increasing low-level moisture, potential will increase for stronger convection capable of hail and damaging gusts. A watch may be needed for portions of the MCD area within the next 2-3 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 02/21/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Oh boy: Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 Areas affected...northwest Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma...parts of western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 220041Z - 220315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging winds and wind-driven hail may develop through this evening over northwest Texas, spreading across southern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas overnight. A couple brief tornadoes may also occur later tonight. DISCUSSION...As an 80 kt midlevel speed max moves across the region, 850 mb theta-e advection will be enhanced by a 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Though midlevel warming is also forecast, the increasingly moisture will lead to destabilization from northern TX into southern/eastern OK and into AR later tonight. This will occur well ahead of the cold front, which is currently approaching the KS/OK border. 00Z soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, and strong deep-layer shear. The FWD sounding is less capped than OKC given more robust boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 F. The MAF sounding also shows midlevel moistening amongst the existing showers. Lift with the upper wave will interact with increasing low-level moisture this evening and overnight, and scattered severe storms are expected to form north of the Abilene TX area and travel quickly northeast across OK and into AR. Forecast soundings indicate long hodographs with steep lapse rates aloft. This, in combination with latest CAM output suggest mixed storm modes are possible, the most likely being forward-propagating line segments or bows producing damaging wind and wind-driven hail. Rotation may occur with some of the strongest storms given effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, but tornado risk will largely be dependent on storm mode and whether supercells can occur vs a more linear mode. As such, a watch is likely to be issued prior to 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Northern Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 720 PM until 200 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to steadily intensify this evening from northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. This will be as steady low-level moistening and modest destabilization occurs in advance of an approaching upper-level system. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards, but a tornado risk cannot be ruled out, particularly in areas near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of far north Texas and southern Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Abilene TX to 35 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, OKwx_2001 said: Just barely missed me by 1 County South & East! It's going to be a long night for many, Watch also includes DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 New rainfall forecast from ILN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Storm NW of Fort Worth, South of Jacksboro, TX looks really mean. Also has a Hook, could get Tornado Warned if it keeps up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Not too often you see strong convection develop out of stratiform rain that quick Should see the tornado threat gradually increase as the cells become surface-based, enter better moisture, and low-level shear. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not too often you see strong convection develop out of stratiform rain that quick Should see the tornado threat gradually increase as the cells become surface-based, enter better moisture, and low-level shear. Looks like the Supercell will miss DFW to the North, but Denton & Mckinney might get hammered from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Most important thing for the tornado threat in a couple hours is how discrete the cells stay or if it'll turn linear. So far 3, possibly 4, are in good position to have their inflow untouched. But it's still early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 It's got a nasty hook, and if it can become surface based (which it probably already is by now, and if not it should be pretty soon) it will be a tornado threat if that rotation can tighten up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Has a LOT of BIG Hail inside this Supercell, there are 2 more further west, one near Putnam, TX & the other North of Eastland, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 A big issue with the storms so far is that they're fairly high-based due to weak low-level moisture. 1400m-1600m cloud base is pretty hard to overcome without significant help from low-level shear... which, to be fair, we might have by now. Need to see the LCL lower without the low-levels becoming stable as a result. Delicate balance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Man it would be really nice to have good radar coverage in SE OK... But instead it's one of the worst radar holes in the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Edited February 22, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Supercell WSW of Weatherford, TX has a extremely well-defined hook, that may produce a Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Tornado Watch for Eastern Oklahoma & into Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Supercell WSW of Weatherford, TX has a extremely well-defined hook, that may produce a Tornado The Supercell is now recycling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) The formerly dominant supercell now looks like it's heading more northeast than the one heading for Fort Worth's burbs which looks more east-northeast based on recent scans. So that one is more likely to dig into the deeper moisture. We'll see though... it's been interesting so far. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Tornado Warning for Atoka, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 LCL is pretty similar to the DFW cells but I guess this combination worked. Gotta love the SE OK radar hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 There's some mesos down by Caddo and Durant that might try to get something going. Although that's looking way up into the storm so its impossible to tell exactly what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Early signs of a MCS is appearing west of Fort Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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