January 8-10, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential

[snowlover2]

Well might as well go ahead and get this going. I thought the 4-7 period had the BSR support but it actually is this period. Below is a loop of the last 12 GFS runs showing a storm here but naturally it's all over the place being over 10 days out still. By the end of the weekend/start of next week GGEM/Euro should hopefully be showing something too and we really start figuring out what this is going to do.

Edited December 30, 2023 by snowlover2

[Hoosier]

We gotta run into something at some point.

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS on board with some action (posted in winter disco thread)...Here is the Canadian Ensemble with potential as well:

 

[snowlover2]

[StormfanaticInd]

This period does have potential. I mean one of these has got to eventually verify lol

[Penn State]

Signal is there.. GFS has been showing something intense for quite a few runs. Hopefully something verifies.. would be nice if folks in the Midwest and Ohio Valley could cash-in too! Cutters.. one man’s trash, another’s treasure I suppose. 

[BoroBuckeye]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This period does have potential. I mean one of these has got to eventually verify lol

That’s been my philosophy!  🙃

[snowlover2]

Plains bomb on the 0z GFS.

[snowlover2]

[snowlover2]

Just after this period at the end of the 0z GFS.

[snowlover2]

Just starting to come together on the 12z GGEM.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Just starting to come together on the 12z GGEM.

Potential is there...

That said, with several pieces of energy preceding this thread's storm, it's going to be a while before the models have a clue. 

[snowlover2]

Seems kinda messy on 12z GFS.

[snowlover2]

End of the 12z Euro.

[junior]

When ensembles support a storm in the LR you know somethings brewing.

[snowlover2]

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Wouldn't surprise me if the final solution is close to this - it typically takes a big ol' western GLC to help usher in a more favorable pattern for the OV. We will see.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Arctic hammer follows the cutter...

 

[snowlover2]

0z GFS pretty similar to 18z.

[MesoscaleBanding]

0z run leaves some energy behind for an hour 300+ fantasy storm - classic I-71 cut-off 😆

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[snowlover2]

2nd or 3rd run now that shows another wave slamming lots of us after the main storm cuts west. Something to keep an eye on.

[bigben89]

8 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

2nd or 3rd run now that shows another wave slamming lots of us after the main storm cuts west. Something to keep an eye on.

Big storms go East, right? LOL

[MesoscaleBanding]

Starting to look like this storm thread can be refined to Jan. 8-10...Will probably need another storm thread for the Jan 11-13 time frame if that energy continues to show up on future model runs as it is still a bit out into fantasy range. 

[snowlover2]

5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Starting to look like this storm thread can be refined to Jan. 8-10...Will probably need another storm thread for the Jan 11-13 time frame if that energy continues to show up on future model runs as it is still a bit out into fantasy range. 

Yep was likely going to have to shorten the end date anyway.

[snowlover2]