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2021-2022 Season - Lake Effect & Upslope Snows


Hiramite

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The place to discuss and post about Lake Effect & Upslope Snows!

The recent warmth and winds have done a number on the Erie ice cover. 2-20-21

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And there’s more to making LES than just cold air blowing over the Lakes.

http://stream1.cmatc.cn/pub/comet/WinterWeather/oceansnowcase/comet/norlat/snow/lake_effect/1_lo_snow_basic_ingredients.htm

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  • The title was changed to 2021-2022 Season - Lake Effect & Upslope Snows
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The trend is looking good....depending on your perspective.

Certainly doesn't sound like a late March forecast.

Quote

Snow ratios that start off near 10 or 12 to 1 will become more efficient with time as cold advection continues, reaching 16 to 1 by Sunday morning. Favored upslope areas with a west to northwest flow across Lake Erie will see the higher accumulations. Model soundings show deep moisture through 17K feet through 06Z Sat night, then decreasing to about 700mb through 12Z. By Sunday morning, 850mb temperatures will have fallen to -14 to -16C across the area. A time height display for Erie PA shows the dendritic growth zone descending below 5K feet by Sunday afternoon but also lift and moisture continuing in this layer all the way into Monday. The flow suggests a favorable trajectory off Lake Huron and expect moderate to heavy snows for inland NW Pennsylvania, although over a 24+ hour window making it more of a long duration event. Winter Weather Headlines are likely in NW Pennsylvania but may also be needed for Inland Ashtabula/Geauga Counties in Ohio.

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Short-rangers spitting out some pretty impressive totals to the lee of the Lakes and Upslope areas.  Here's the big picture NWS forecast.

image.png.62453426e186a4811d86904d31337461.png

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3 hours ago, Hiramite said:

Short-rangers spitting out some pretty impressive totals to the lee of the Lakes and Upslope areas.  Here's the big picture NWS forecast.

image.png.62453426e186a4811d86904d31337461.png

I'm hoping the higher sun angle and warm ground limit accumulations. But anyway.....66 on Thursday.☀️

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20 minutes ago, Snowbelted said:

I'm hoping the higher sun angle and warm ground limit accumulations. But anyway.....66 on Thursday.☀️

image.png.faafd3904d43c2f3a82d80921666302b.png

 

:classic_laugh:

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Nothing crazy here.  Snowed much of the day yesterday but not much to show for it.  1.1” on patio furniture, nothing lasting on the ground.

Then more pure LE last night after temps dropped below freezing, 1.8” additional on the board this AM. Todays’s snow looks to be fairly scattered.

A nice little early Spring event.

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