Norma | Southern Plains Rainmaker | 130 mph 941 mb peak

[Iceresistance]

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Satellite imagery shows Norma quickly becoming better organized. The 
Central Dense Overcast is continuing to expand, with cold cloud top 
temperatures of less than -90 degrees C.  A recent ASCAT pass over 
the eastern edge of the storm suggested that the low-level center 
was near the southeastern side of the deepest convection.  The 
initial intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest 
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and 
UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.

Norma appears to be gradually turning, and the latest motion is 
estimated to be 320/6 kt.  A weak ridge over Mexico is expected to 
steer the storm north-northwestward to northward for about 3 days.  
There is still significant uncertainty in the track prediction later 
in the forecast period, which is likely related to the anticipated 
vortex depth.  Global models that show a weaker cyclone, such as the 
ECMWF, turn the system westward prior to the Baja California 
peninsula.  Model guidance with a stronger, deeper circulation tend 
to bring the storm farther north and turn it eastward by the end of 
the forecast period.  The updated official track forecast is very 
similar to the previous prediction and is close to the simple model 
consensus aid, TVCE.  However, there is low confidence in this 
forecast given the spread in the model tracks.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are likely to remain conducive 
for additional strengthening through the next day or so.  
Statistical indices predicting the probability of rapid 
intensification, such as SHIPS-RI and DTOPS, suggest a very high 
likelihood of rapid strengthening within 24 hours.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification, with a 
peak of 100 kt by 36 h.  By day 2, global model guidance shows that 
the deep-layer vertical wind shear should increase over the storm 
and likely induce a gradual weakening trend through the remainder of 
the forecast period.  The official forecast remains near or above 
the intensity model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 14.2N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 16.2N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 18.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 20.0N 109.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 22.9N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

This rain map is related to Norma

Edited October 18, 2023 by Iceresistance

[StretchCT]

Norma expected to rapidly intensify

In the near term, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
favorable for continued strengthening. Norma is moving over very
warm (>29C) waters, within a moist and very diffluent upper-level
environment. With only weak to moderate deep-layer southerly shear
expected during the next 12-24 h, Norma should become a hurricane
soon. The statistical rapid intensification (RI) indices indicate RI
is more likely than not during the next 24 h, and the NHC intensity
forecast continues to explicitly show RI with Norma peaking as a
major hurricane in 24-36 h. Then, an increase in southwesterly shear
by this weekend should induce weakening through the rest of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity prediction was lowered at days
4-5 based on the increasingly hostile conditions depicted in the
latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.8N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.9N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.8N 108.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 18.7N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 19.6N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 22.5N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

Definitely getting its act together

 

Could say there is track uncertainty

 

[StretchCT]

Hurricane

 

3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 18
Location: 15.6°N 108.0°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Norma went from 70mph at 9am MDT yesterday to 130mph at 9amMDT today.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE MAJOR HURRICANE
NORMA LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

Edited October 19, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

130mph and 941 was its peak.

1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORMA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

 

Forecast to weaken from here on out.

Spoiler

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

The satellite presentation of Norma has deteriorated since the last 
advisory. The eye has become less defined, and the inner core 
convection has become more asymmetric. The Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunters that investigated Norma reported that the eyewall 
was open to the southeast during their final pass through the 
center. Still, the aircraft data confirm that Norma is a major 
hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reported peak 700-mb flight-level 
winds of 111 kt, with SFMR retrievals as high as 102 kt. The minimum 
pressure from a recent center dropsonde was 945 mb with 12-kt winds. 
The initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, which 
could be a bit generous based on the recent aircraft data.

Based on recent satellite trends, it is likely that Norma has 
reached its peak intensity. An increase in southerly shear will 
likely cause Norma to become more vertically tilted during the next 
couple of days, while the hurricane moves into a drier and more 
stable environment as diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance. Therefore, 
weakening is forecast beginning tonight and continuing through the 
weekend and into early next week. Still, Norma is forecast to be a 
hurricane when it moves near or over the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula, and the government of Mexico has issued a 
Hurricane Warning for this area based on the increased risk of 
hurricane conditions. 

The eye of Norma has wobbled some today, but the long-term motion 
remains northward (350/5 kt). A turn toward the north-northwest is 
expected during the next couple of days while Norma approaches the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. There are still speed 
differences in the various global and regional models, likely 
related to differences in the steering flow based on the vertical 
depth of the cyclone. The GFS and regional models suggest Norma will 
remain a deeper cyclone and move toward the west coast of mainland 
Mexico in 48-72 h. The 12z ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET runs show 
Norma making it farther north than previous runs, but still stalling 
near the southern tip of Baja before moving inland over western 
Mexico early next week. The updated NHC track forecast has been 
nudged westward and is faster this cycle, which generally keeps it 
between the HCCA and TVCE aids. This update shows Norma inland by 96 
h and dissipated over western Mexico by day 5, but this could occur 
sooner than forecast if the GFS and regional hurricane models are 
correct. Interests in western Mexico should monitor the latest 
forecast updates, as future track and/or speed adjustments could be 
required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 17.5N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.8N 109.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 21.2N 109.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 22.5N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 23.6N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 24.2N 108.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 25.0N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[StretchCT]

Hurricane Norma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
215 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023
 
...NORMA MAKES LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Norma has made landfall in Baja 
California Sur near El Pozo de Cota, which is west-northwest of Cabo 
San Lucas. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph 
(130 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 978 mb 
(28.88 inches).
 
SUMMARY OF 215 PM MDT...2015 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart