Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Moderators Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) Yay, my namesake storm! And just like me, not expected to do much, or go very far, not very pretty and a complete mess! The NHC message pretty much says it all. If you can't find the center of circulation, neither can ADT🤷♂️ 🤪 Disco includes how they figured it was a TS and why it will remain a minimal TS Spoiler Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone, with some curved banding features located both north and south of the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB/UW-CIMSS range from 30-47 kt, and a conservative blend of this data gives an initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. Thus Tropical Storm Sean has formed, the 19th named storm in this busy 2023 Atlantic season. Sean could intensify a bit more during the next day or so before increasing southerly shear affects the core of the cyclone. Some hints of this shear can already be seen in cirrus cloud motions from convective activity northwest of the tropical cyclone. Thereafter, moderate-to-strong shear is expected to generally cancel out the enhancing effects of a relatively moist and unstable environment, leading to little net change for a few days. By the end of the week, while the shear could weaken, global models are generally showing an influx of drier mid-level air along with upper-level convergence, which would typically weaken any associated deep convection. Many of the regional hurricane models, however, actually show some strengthening at long range, but they have been inconsistent at that time frame. The NHC forecast leans more on the global models for now, similar to the previous forecast and the model consensus, and continues to show Sean becoming a remnant low on day 5. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Sean west-northwestward to northwestward through Friday. Very late in the forecast period, a bend back toward the west-northwest is anticipated as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit west of the last one at longer range, between the model-consensus and corrected-consensus aids, which favors the weaker track aids on the left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 10.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 10.7N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 11.2N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 11.8N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 12.6N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 13.5N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 14.5N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 16.7N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 18.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake Track is pretty uncertain. Earlier global runs had this either recurving right away or remaining very weak and drifting into the islands Shear not favorable long run and neutral current. Convergence at surface (blue), divergence aloft (yellow), and vorticity (orange) actually line up, which is unusual this early in formation. Dry air is patchy Not much in the way of Rapid Intensification, expected. Though 154kts for max potential is pretty solid. HWRF at end of run has it looking pretty healthy. It's dropping mb going into this and moisture encircling the center. At the other end of the spectrum, HAFSB doesn't have it existing at 126. Edited October 12, 2023 by StretchCT 4
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Posted October 11, 2023 At least I can see the CoC now 1
clm Posted October 11, 2023 Posted October 11, 2023 5 hours ago, StretchCT said: Yay, my namesake storm! And just like me, not expected to do much, or go very far, not very pretty and a complete mess! The NHC message pretty much says it all. If you can't find the center of circulation, neither can ADT🤷♂️ 🤪 Disco includes how they figured it was a TS and why it will remain a minimal TS Reveal hidden contents Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone, with some curved banding features located both north and south of the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB/UW-CIMSS range from 30-47 kt, and a conservative blend of this data gives an initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. Thus Tropical Storm Sean has formed, the 19th named storm in this busy 2023 Atlantic season. Sean could intensify a bit more during the next day or so before increasing southerly shear affects the core of the cyclone. Some hints of this shear can already be seen in cirrus cloud motions from convective activity northwest of the tropical cyclone. Thereafter, moderate-to-strong shear is expected to generally cancel out the enhancing effects of a relatively moist and unstable environment, leading to little net change for a few days. By the end of the week, while the shear could weaken, global models are generally showing an influx of drier mid-level air along with upper-level convergence, which would typically weaken any associated deep convection. Many of the regional hurricane models, however, actually show some strengthening at long range, but they have been inconsistent at that time frame. The NHC forecast leans more on the global models for now, similar to the previous forecast and the model consensus, and continues to show Sean becoming a remnant low on day 5. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Sean west-northwestward to northwestward through Friday. Very late in the forecast period, a bend back toward the west-northwest is anticipated as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit west of the last one at longer range, between the model-consensus and corrected-consensus aids, which favors the weaker track aids on the left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 10.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 10.7N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 11.2N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 11.8N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 12.6N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 13.5N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 14.5N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 16.7N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 18.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake Track is pretty uncertain. Earlier global runs had this either recurving right away or remaining very weak and drifting into the islands Shear not favorable long run and neutral current. Convergence at surface (blue), divergence aloft (yellow), and vorticity (orange) actually line up, which is unusual this early in formation. Dry air is patchy Not much in the way of Rapid Intensification, expected. Though 154kts for max potential is pretty solid. HWRF at end of run has it looking pretty healthy. It's dropping mb going into this and moisture encircling the center. At the other end of the spectrum, HAFSB doesn't have it existing at 126. Of course ADT can't find the center. Its a home security system. Asking it to look at weather is really going beyond its capabilities. 🤪 1
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) The NHC is familiar with Seans it seems Edited October 11, 2023 by StretchCT
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 12, 2023 Author Moderators Posted October 12, 2023 A Sean being depressed in October isn’t unusual.
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 15, 2023 Author Moderators Posted October 15, 2023 Probably the last look at Sean
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