TS Rina | Peak 50mph 999 mb | Rina failure - remnant low

[StretchCT]

40mph

Rina was named today. You can see its exposed, trailing convection and in the middle of it. 

Not looking like it will be that intense, NHC has it peaking at 50kts.

 

Models are having difficulty with the track.

 

  The most interesting aspect will be its interaction with Philippe, which I'll get into on the next post.

From the discussion: 

Confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal based 
on the model spread and uncertainty regarding the potential 
interaction with Tropical Storm Philippe during the next several 
days.

Edited October 2, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Some examples of the interaction with Philippe (which starts off west of Rina)

CMC with Philippe and Rina moving in tandem, like they are waltzing with their bodies apart, until they merge.

GFS with Philippe twirling with Rina then throwing Rina across the dance floor into Canada.

NAVGEM just dosie does her off to another system

[NWOhioChaser]

So no Fujiwara effect? Lee caused substantial upwelling ahead of them so this is a fish storm for sure. 

[StretchCT]

Rina looks like it will have rina failure. Much less interesting result than desired. Barely a circle at hr 54

 

[StretchCT]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 55.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina
was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 55.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through 
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts. The post-tropical remnant low is expected to 
dissipate on Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).