Iceresistance Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and this system is very likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Ugh, Metop B and C just missed it. But there is a barb of 25kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 TD 15 Looks like it may be another major. INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 17, 2023 Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 48.0W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2023 Big Eyed Fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Big Eyed Fish storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Big Eyed Fish storm Dave Matthews Band reference, or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, rmo09001 said: Dave Matthews Band reference, or is it just me? Well, it's gotta big eye, and it's a fish storm, so... plus the song is going through my head as I typed it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2023 (edited) Goodnight Nigel. Just about annular. Didn't intensify too much. The sw infrared shows it better Now at 100mph, it's expected to go to 110 and not reach major status. Spoiler Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023 The satellite structure of Nigel has improved this afternoon. Satellite images indicate a solid ring of deep convection surrounds the large, 45 to 50-n-mi wide eye of the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have conducted research missions into Nigel today and provided helpful data to better assess the hurricane's structure and intensity. The aircraft recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds of around 100 kt, which reduces to a surface intensity of 90 kt using a standard reduction factor. However, peak SFMR winds from both planes were around 75 kt, and dropsonde data indicate only modest pressure falls to around 974 mb. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set at 85 kt for this advisory. The wind radii were adjusted slightly outward based on the aircraft data and scatterometer data received just after the previous advisory. Given its improved structure, additional near-term strengthening is forecast as Nigel moves over 28C SSTs in a weak vertical shear environment. By late Wednesday, the guidance indicates deep-layer shear will increase while the hurricane quickly moves into a drier environment over much cooler waters. So, the NHC forecast shows steady weakening through late week that closely follows the latest multi-model consensus aids. The global model fields indicate that Nigel will complete its extratropical transition by 60 h, which is reflected in this advisory. It appears that Nigel has begun to turn more northward, and its initial motion is now north-northwestward (330/12 kt). The steering ridge to the northeast of Nigel will continue to slide eastward through tonight. As a result, the hurricane is expected to turn northward around the western periphery of this ridge. Then, Nigel should turn northeastward and accelerate within the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough moving across the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The track guidance remains well clustered around this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast was only nudged slightly west based on the latest TVCA and HCCA aids. As Nigel moves deeper into the mid-latitudes, the extratropical low is forecast to become captured within a broader cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, which introduces increased track uncertainty late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 31.8N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 33.7N 54.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 36.7N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 39.8N 49.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 42.8N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 45.7N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z 48.6N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z 56.0N 20.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1800Z 58.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart Edited September 19, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2023 For more on annular hurricanes https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/annular_knaff.pdf Spoiler . Features of annular hurricanes Before the features associated with annular hurricanes can be examined, annular hurricane cases must be identified. The IR imagery is the visual means by which we determine whether a storm is an annular hurricane. An annular hurricane is identified if the hurricane persists for at least 3 h in an axisymmetric state defined by the following: 1) the hurricane has a normal-to-large-sized circular eye surrounded by a single band of deep convection containing the inner-core region and 2) the hurricane has little or no convective activity beyond this annulus of convection. The use of digital IR data also allows for the development of an objective technique of identifying storms with these characteristics, which will be addressed in section 4. Note that a hurricane is considered an annular hurricane only when these conditions are met; before and after the annular phase, the hurricane is considered an asymmetric storm. The six hurricanes that meet these subjective criteria during our period of study are listed in Table 1 along with ranges of satellite estimates of the range of eye sizes and best-track-determined intensities. Further details on the characteristics of these storms are described in sections 4a–d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 19, 2023 8 hours ago, StretchCT said: Big Eyed Fish storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: If they are for sale, I will buy one. Lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 20, 2023 Todays sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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