Nigel | 100 mph 974 mb peak | Annular Eye

[Iceresistance]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of 
organization in association with a broad low pressure area located 
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development, and this system is very likely to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or so while it moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[StretchCT]

Ugh, Metop B and C just missed it. But there is a barb of 25kts

[StretchCT]

TD 15

Looks like it may be another major.

 

INIT  15/1500Z 14.4N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.5N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 17.2N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.9N  47.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.5N  49.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 22.0N  51.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 23.4N  52.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 26.0N  56.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 29.0N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

[StretchCT]

Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023
 
...TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[StretchCT]

Big Eyed Fish storm

 

[clm]

16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Big Eyed Fish storm

 

[rmo09001]

19 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Big Eyed Fish storm

 

Dave Matthews Band reference, or is it just me?

[StretchCT]

6 minutes ago, rmo09001 said:

Dave Matthews Band reference, or is it just me?

Well, it's gotta big eye, and it's a fish storm, so... plus the song is going through my head as I typed it. 

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Nigel.  Just about annular. Didn't intensify too much.

 

 

The sw infrared shows it better

Now at 100mph, it's expected to go to 110 and not reach major status.

Spoiler

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2023

The satellite structure of Nigel has improved this afternoon. 
Satellite images indicate a solid ring of deep convection surrounds 
the large, 45 to 50-n-mi wide eye of the hurricane. The NOAA 
Hurricane Hunters have conducted research missions into Nigel today 
and provided helpful data to better assess the hurricane's structure 
and intensity. The aircraft recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds 
of around 100 kt, which reduces to a surface intensity of 90 kt 
using a standard reduction factor. However, peak SFMR winds from 
both planes were around 75 kt, and dropsonde data indicate only 
modest pressure falls to around 974 mb. Based on a blend of these 
data, the initial intensity is set at 85 kt for this advisory. The 
wind radii were adjusted slightly outward based on the aircraft data 
and scatterometer data received just after the previous advisory.

Given its improved structure, additional near-term strengthening is 
forecast as Nigel moves over 28C SSTs in a weak vertical shear 
environment. By late Wednesday, the guidance indicates deep-layer 
shear will increase while the hurricane quickly moves into a drier 
environment over much cooler waters. So, the NHC forecast shows 
steady weakening through late week that closely follows the latest 
multi-model consensus aids. The global model fields indicate that 
Nigel will complete its extratropical transition by 60 h, which is 
reflected in this advisory. 

It appears that Nigel has begun to turn more northward, and its 
initial motion is now north-northwestward (330/12 kt). The steering 
ridge to the northeast of Nigel will continue to slide eastward 
through tonight. As a result, the hurricane is expected to turn 
northward around the western periphery of this ridge. Then, Nigel 
should turn northeastward and accelerate within the flow ahead of a 
deep-layer trough moving across the northeastern United States and 
Atlantic Canada. The track guidance remains well clustered around 
this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast was only nudged 
slightly west based on the latest TVCA and HCCA aids. As Nigel moves 
deeper into the mid-latitudes, the extratropical low is forecast to 
become captured within a broader cyclonic circulation over the north 
Atlantic on days 4 and 5, which introduces increased track 
uncertainty late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 31.8N  54.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 33.7N  54.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 36.7N  53.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.8N  49.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 42.8N  42.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 45.7N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z 48.6N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1800Z 56.0N  20.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/1800Z 58.0N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

For more on annular hurricanes

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/annular_knaff.pdf

Spoiler

. Features of annular hurricanes Before the features associated with annular hurricanes can be examined, annular hurricane cases must be identified. The IR imagery is the visual means by which we determine whether a storm is an annular hurricane. An annular hurricane is identified if the hurricane persists for at least 3 h in an axisymmetric state defined by the following: 1) the hurricane has a normal-to-large-sized circular eye surrounded by a single band of deep convection containing the inner-core region and 2) the hurricane has little or no convective activity beyond this annulus of convection. The use of digital IR data also allows for the development of an objective technique of identifying storms with these characteristics, which will be addressed in section 4. Note that a hurricane is considered an annular hurricane only when these conditions are met; before and after the annular phase, the hurricane is considered an asymmetric storm. The six hurricanes that meet these subjective criteria during our period of study are listed in Table 1 along with ranges of satellite estimates of the range of eye sizes and best-track-determined intensities. Further details on the characteristics of these storms are described in sections 4a–d

 

[Sentinel]

8 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Big Eyed Fish storm

 

 

[SnowloverSid]

3 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

 

If they are for sale, I will buy one. Lol.

[StretchCT]

Todays sat