Hurricane Margo |Peak 90mph 970mb| post-tropical

[StretchCT]

This could be another interesting creature. NHC has it up to a 80/90 chance this morning, but it looks pretty good already.

That is remnants of Katia out to its northwest

Should this be named it would be Margot. Guidance ranges from TS to Major, but consensus is Cat 1.  

 

 

Yesterday, GFS/Euro were taking it to the Central Atlantic where it would parallel Lee. Today is more of a recurve into the Azores.  Either way this isn't one for the Western Atlantic, but if it does track into the Central Atlantic, it could influence Lee particularly if it's stronger.   

 I don't expect a lot of activity in this thread. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

NHC has been busy

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 26.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Spoiler

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicts that showers and 
thunderstorms have become better organized around a well-defined 
low-level center associated with the low pressure area (AL96) that 
NHC has been tracking the past few days. Subjective satellite 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.0/30 kt. 
Given the better defined low-level center and these satellite 
estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 
Fourteen over the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial intensity
of 30 kt. 

The depression is moving generally west-northwest and this 
motion is forecast to continue over the next few days, with a 
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north at the end of the 
forecast period, into a weakness in the tropical ridge. The 
guidance envelope is in fairly good agreement and the NHC track 
forecast lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is forecast to be over warm sea surface 
temperatures near 28-29 degrees Celsius during the next several 
days. However, the depression will encounter some northerly vertical 
wind shear, and drier mid-level relative humidities along the 
current forecast track. Given the mixed environmental conditions the 
NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the early part 
of the forecast but brings the system to hurricane strength before 
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA 
and IVCN intensity consensus aids.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 15.7N  26.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 16.4N  28.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 17.3N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 18.5N  34.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 19.8N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 21.0N  38.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 22.4N  40.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 26.1N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 30.2N  42.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

 

[StretchCT]

[clm]

Cycling back and forth on the GFS, Margo looks like she's a single lady who wants to join in on the dance and throws herself into the middle of the dance floor and gets turned around by the other dancers (storms) around her.  And after the dance ends she's down on the floor from being spun around so many times, she's dizzy as a cat watching a butterfly.

[StretchCT]

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 10
Location: 23.9°N 40.1°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[StretchCT]

Margot looks better today. Should be upgraded I imagine.  Little bit of dry air in there but pretty tight. 

[StretchCT]

Fifth hurricane this season

9:00 PM GMT Mon Sep 11
Location: 27.0°N 39.8°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

[StretchCT]

 

3:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 12
Location: 30.2°N 39.4°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Racing north compared to Lingering Lee

[Iceresistance]

How can you say this without being tongue twisted?

TXNT23 KNES 130029
TCSNTL

A. 14L (MARGOT)

B. 13/0000Z

C. 32.2N

D. 39.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS SROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN LG, WHICH RESULSTED
IN AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 AND -0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 4.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[StretchCT]

Not a bad cluster if you were shooting.  Margot is expected to crawl to a stop through the rest of the forecast. Likely at it's peak this report.

[clm]

21 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Not a bad cluster if you were shooting.  Margot is expected to crawl to a stop through the rest of the forecast. Likely at it's peak this report.

Looks more like my wife's route in a store.  And me trying to find her.

[StretchCT]

Feel sorry for the person who had to draw this one.

[1816]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Feel sorry for the person who had to draw this one.