TS Jose | peak 60mph 997mb | post tropical

[StretchCT]

NHC quickly bumped this up to 80% from nowhere yesterday, which leads me to believe they're preparing to make it a TD later today.

The current environment is quite conducive to development

Water temps are ok too. 28-29C

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

May stay a depression, or may go TS. 

Track wise, it's still early for hurricane models, but it's all over the board.  

This is one for the fish, and if it's just a depression, that would be sad.  

[StretchCT]

Dang that was way faster than I thought.  From an 80% at 8am to a TD at 11am.

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate 
that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic 
has become better defined.  Deep convection associated with the 
system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the 
eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear.  The 
ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that 
is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory.  Guidance 
suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term 
which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast 
follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a 
tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, the 
shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional 
strengthening is indicated.  By 72 hours, the system is forecast to 
become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours.  
Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below. 

The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt.  A 
slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the 
day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the 
depression slides eastward.  After that time, a slightly faster 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone 
is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin 
to its west.  The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected 
consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 27.9N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 28.3N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 28.9N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 29.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 30.8N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 32.5N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 35.0N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[StretchCT]

I can't believe this got named, but it looks pretty much like a TS

That system to it's west also looks well defined this morning.  It's got a 30% tag on it, up from 10% yesterday

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

This is remnants of Gert (center) with Jose

[StretchCT]

Seems microwave data shows Jose has an eye feature

 

[StretchCT]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023
 
...COMPACT JOSE STRONGER...
...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGER HURRICANE FRANKLIN 
BY SATURDAY MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 

Disco mentions the eye feature

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023
 
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a compact,
symmetric cloud pattern with intermittent deep convective bursts of
convection near the surface center.  An earlier AMSR2 microwave
image revealed evidence of a small eye-like mid-level feature.
Based on the much-improved structure, particularly in the microwave 
images, this advisory's initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, but 
it could be stronger.  The intensity philosophy remains unchanged.  
Increasing northerly shear associated with Hurricane Franklin's 
outflow should weaken the cyclone.  By early Saturday, Jose 
is forecast to become absorbed by Franklin and an intruding 
mid-latitude baroclinic system.
 
Jose's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/16 kt.
The small cyclone is being steered by the mid-tropospheric flow
produced by a high pressure to the east over the central Atlantic
and larger Hurricane Franklin approaching from the northwest.  Jose
is expected to accelerate northward through dissipation while the
deep-layer southerly steering flow strengthens.  The deterministic
guidance agrees with this solution, and the NHC forecast lies
close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 33.9N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 37.0N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

...JOSE ABSORBED INTO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 1
Location: 42.1°N 47.4°W
Moving: NE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph