Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2023 (edited) This one showed up on the CIMMS site as 09, which made me look at the NHC which classified as potential cyclone 09 1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 21Location: 25.0°N 91.0°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1008 mbMax sustained: 35 mp ASCAT looks like it's closed and being at 35mph, you'd think they'd depression it. Convergence and Vorticity are already there Shear is rough ahead of it. Need to see if that's moving out or not. Edited August 22, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2023 (edited) Well, the 5pm edt update has it now a depression. Not a lot of time fortunately. INIT 21/2100Z 25.2N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED Spoiler Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland tonight. The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west at 16 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central United States. A continued quick west or west-northwest motion is expected, taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. The models are in fairly good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Strengthening is expected, but the limited time over water and its current broad structure suggest that rapid intensification is unlikely. The system is expected to move inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast intensity values. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from the depression is expected across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. 2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast tonight through Tuesday morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 25.2N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi HWRF has it at 9kts at 925mb. 60kts at surface HAFS A with 45kts surface and 65kts at 925. HAFSB is similar. GFS is 45kts surface. 70 at 925. Rainfall is modeled from 4" to 12". Edited August 21, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2023 (edited) Looks messier than Franklin. As warm as the water is, I think it just doesn't have enough time to make it to hurricane. But it might be stronger than predicted. Edited August 21, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2023 Rapid intensity model above. It's possible, not likely. But the sat below looks a little more organized. At least I can find the CoC now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Wish it would bring more rain to central texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22, 2023 (edited) Harold is up to 50mph now, less than 24 hours from being tagged as a potential cyclone and it's making landfall 900 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 ...HAROLD STRENGTHENS AND REFORMS TO THE NORTH... Radar images and surface observations indicate that the center of Harold has reformed to the north of the previous estimated position and has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 97.0W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown Edited August 22, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22, 2023 (edited) Landfall in under 24 hrs. Edited August 22, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 23, 2023 Radar estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 23, 2023 Max gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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