Zombie TS Gert | 60mph 997mb | eaten by Idalia

[StretchCT]

TD 6 is formed from I99L.  It's not expected to be around very long 

500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023
 
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 50.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

CoC is currently exposed. Not forecast to strengthen, but it doesn't take much to get to TS from here.  After a few convective bursts over the next 36 hours in between bouts with shear and dry air,  it's expected to dissipate. 

Spoiler

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

The latest CIMSS proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the 
low-level center of Tropical Depression Six has become completely 
exposed, with all the convection displace to the east. Infrared 
imagery also shows that the cold cloud tops from earlier this 
afternoon have warmed over the last few hours. A blend of 
subjective and objective satellite estimates remain around 30 kt. 
Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong 
deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities. 
These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression 
expected to be fairly short-lived. Simulated satellite imagery shows 
the potential for a few more convective bursts over the next day or 
so. The official forecast calls for no further strengthening, and 
for the system to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours and 
dissipate by 48 hours. However, some models suggest that it may 
become devoid of convection a little earlier than currently 
forecast. The intensity forecast remains near the model consensus.

The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, to the south of a 
low-level ridge. The system is expected to continue westward, with a 
slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. By Monday, 
the system will round the edge of the ridge with a gradual turn to 
the west-northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous 
NHC forecast and lies near the corrected model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 17.2N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 17.5N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 17.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Not sure this needs to be followed unless it gets a name. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by StretchCT

[Iceresistance]

It became Gert

[Burr]

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GERT...
...STILL EXPECTED TO SHORT-LIVED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM AST (0400 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 55.9 West. Gert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this 
motion is expected until the system dissipates in about 24 hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gert is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate 
on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

[StretchCT]

Lasted a little longer than expected, but RIP Gert.

[StretchCT]

remnant Gert still kicking up

[StretchCT]

Gert remnants (per Tropical Tidbits) currently at 30% chance

[StretchCT]

Gert is back

Is predicted to hit 40 mph+ but is in a pretty hostile area. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 28.7N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 28.7N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 29.1N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 29.7N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 30.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 32.3N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 34.7N  51.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[StretchCT]

On 8/19/2023 at 11:08 PM, StretchCT said:

EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.

Ha!  
...FOR THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW GERT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

[StretchCT]

Gert is now at its strongest so far. 

[StretchCT]

11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 3 Location: 31.2°N 51.9°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 997 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Gert in the middle, Idalia to the nw

Edited September 3, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 3
Location: 35.4°N 50.7°W
Moving: N at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Forceast to be absorbed by Idalia tomorrow

[StretchCT]

The last of Gert getting into Idalia.