Invest 95L

[StretchCT]

NHC has activated Invest 95L which is forming from an African wave.  It's been on some GFS runs and some EPS runs but didn't generate much excitement. I'm kinda surprised that they assigned it.  

Shear looks favorable for a while

Dry air not in the immediate area, but could see it becoming an issue.

First crack at intensity models are more impressive than I expected

Basic track is west, though if it gets to a strong 2 or 3, it would be more north.

 GFS op not impressed

NHC only 30%, both of which are why the invest surprises me.  

Euro not impressed, one of the stronger ones is furthest north.

 Hurricane models haven't caught up yet.  Sat is dark cause it's night. 

Edited July 21, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

This was the end game of the 0z GFS run. 10 days out. 

Edited July 21, 2023 by StretchCT

[zumarat]

Taking the family to Destin FL next weekend so I've been watching these model runs rather intently this week. Trying not to get too concerned yet given how wildly erratic the GFS runs have been.

I've never once purchased trip insurance on anything we've ever done. I'm hoping I don't regret that decision this time around. 

[StretchCT]

Now up to 60%

There's a circulation there, but that's about all. 

If time allows, I'll look into what's stopping it later. 

[StretchCT]

Dry air might be keeping it at bay

Shear not bad

Water vapor with convergence (blue) divergence (yellow) and vorticity (orange).  Not a lot to work with here.  The WV doesn't look THAT dry though it has dry slots in it. 

12z GFS and Euro don't develop it much, perhaps as much as a TD.  They do see something a bit more potent behind it though, which is more like a TS. Canadian has nothing. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Back down to 40%.  Still borderline TS and likely TD on the intensity model page.

It looks like it's here but idk

There seems to be broader circulation

[clm]

I tried tracking it with the GFS but it seems to dissipate, but not sure if its remnants or its just other moisture in the area crosses over Central American and then the below forms.  Hard to tell there is so much wet activity down there.

 

[StretchCT]

Think I'll suspend my coverage on this one now.

It's going to go through some things.

Not showing up on TT anymore as an invest.

Edited July 25, 2023 by StretchCT