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NHC has activated Invest 95L which is forming from an African wave.  It's been on some GFS runs and some EPS runs but didn't generate much excitement. I'm kinda surprised that they assigned it.  

Shear looks favorable for a while


Dry air not in the immediate area, but could see it becoming an issue.


First crack at intensity models are more impressive than I expected


Basic track is west, though if it gets to a strong 2 or 3, it would be more north.

image.thumb.png.bb4841e8d7d01ec60de478fe4372360b.png GFS op not impressed


NHC only 30%, both of which are why the invest surprises me.  


Euro not impressed, one of the stronger ones is furthest north.


 Hurricane models haven't caught up yet.  Sat is dark cause it's night. 

Edited by StretchCT
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Taking the family to Destin FL next weekend so I've been watching these model runs rather intently this week. Trying not to get too concerned yet given how wildly erratic the GFS runs have been.

I've never once purchased trip insurance on anything we've ever done. I'm hoping I don't regret that decision this time around. 

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Dry air might be keeping it at bay


Shear not bad

Water vapor with convergence (blue) divergence (yellow) and vorticity (orange).  Not a lot to work with here.  The WV doesn't look THAT dry though it has dry slots in it. 


12z GFS and Euro don't develop it much, perhaps as much as a TD.  They do see something a bit more potent behind it though, which is more like a TS. Canadian has nothing. 

Edited by StretchCT
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I tried tracking it with the GFS but it seems to dissipate, but not sure if its remnants or its just other moisture in the area crosses over Central American and then the below forms.  Hard to tell there is so much wet activity down there.



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Think I'll suspend my coverage on this one now.


It's going to go through some things.


Not showing up on TT anymore as an invest.

Edited by StretchCT
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