Moderators StretchCT Posted July 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) Didn't really want to spend too much time on this but it's starting to get that look. NHC upped to 60% in 48 hrs. It's forecast to meander the Atlantic for the next 10 days, so just a problem for anyone crossing the Atlantic. Edited July 24, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 14, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) Subtropical Storm Don is formed 500 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 46.8W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Edited July 14, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 15, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 15, 2023 11:00 AM AST Sat Jul 15Location: 36.5°N 48.8°WMoving: NW at 9 mphMin pressure: 1006 mbMax sustained: 45 mph Not going to do much damage... INIT 15/1500Z 36.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 37.8N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 38.4N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 36.8N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 33.9N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 33.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 It's now a Subtropical Depression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 17, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 17, 2023 Still there... 9:00 AM GMT Mon Jul 17Location: 39.2°N 44.7°WMoving: E at 9 mphMin pressure: 1011 mbMax sustained: 35 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 17, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 17, 2023 I chuckled when I saw this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 18, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 18, 2023 Don "strengthened" overnight and was classified as Tropical. As such the thread is updated from Subtropical to Tropical Storm. Spoiler Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023 The convective structure of Don this evening has improved somewhat, with a decent area of -55 to -65C cold cloud tops centered a bit to the northeast of the low-level center. The center is also perhaps a bit better defined than earlier, with the ongoing convective activity possibly helping to tighten the center up. While subjective Dvorak classifications have not increased much this evening, an ASCAT-C pass at 2302 UTC caught the eastern portion of the circulation, with several believable wind vectors of up to 35 kt. Thus, Don is being upgraded to a tropical storm this advisory with sustained winds of 35 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 36.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 34.2N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 33.8N 39.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 38.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 20, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 20, 2023 Don is back up to 50mph and 1002mb and is forecast to get to 60mph now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 34.1N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.4N 42.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 35.0N 44.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 37.7N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 39.3N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 41.3N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 45.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 47.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL Don looks legit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 21, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Now at 60 mph and 998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 22, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 22, 2023 (edited) Don overachieved. But is heading towards cooler waters. This is again its expected peak. Disco below. Was thinking maybe there was some kind of baroclinic forcing on it (didn't have time to look at maps) but the NHC says it strengthened due to the gulf stream. Spoiler Hurricane Don Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don's cloud pattern continued to become better organized after the release of the previous advisory with convection wrapping around an eye in infrared imagery. Since that time, the cloud tops over the western semicircle have warmed somewhat, but a 1648 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed a well-defined low- to mid-level eye with deep convection surrounding it. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800 UTC ranged from T4.0 (65 kt) from TAFB and T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB, with objective estimates in the 60 to 63 kt range. Since subjective estimates have yielded a T4.0 throughout much of the afternoon, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt, making Don a hurricane. Today's strengthening was the result of the storm passing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, however it will move north of those warmer waters later this evening, and Don has likely peaked in intensity. Weakening should begin overnight, with a faster rate of weakening expected Sunday through Monday as Don moves over even colder waters and the vertical wind shear increases. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night, and dissipate by Monday night or early Tuesday. Don is moving northward or 005 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward late tonight as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow between a ridge to its east and a broad trough over eastern Canada. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion should then continue until the system dissipates in 2-3 days. The track guidance is again tightly clustered and no significant changes to the previous official forecast were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 40.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1800Z 47.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Not bad looking either. Edited July 22, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 23, 2023 11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 23Location: 43.9°N 47.8°WMoving: NNE at 16 mphMin pressure: 993 mbMax sustained: 65 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Wonder why they named it Don and not Donald. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 24, 2023 Don goes post tropical after 42 advisories and 10 days. It is the fifth longest running cyclone in July. See spoiler. Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 ...DON NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.6N 40.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Don was located near latitude 47.6 North, longitude 40.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Don should continue to gradually weaken, before dissipating tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None Spoiler Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 Satellite imagery shows that Don lacks sufficient deep convection to classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and it is now post tropical. The initial wind speed remains at 40 kt for this advisory, based on a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass. Don should slowly weaken over the next day or so while moving over cold waters and within high vertical wind shear. The system is moving east-northeastward at about 17 kt, and this general motion will likely to continue until Don dissipates in about a day. Most of the global guidance has post-tropical Don opening up into a trough and becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north Atlantic tomorrow. Very few changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record for the month, just behind Emily of 2005. This is the last advisory on Don. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSDAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 47.6N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/0000Z 48.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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