Moderators StretchCT Posted July 12, 2023 Moderators Share Posted July 12, 2023 (edited) Tropical Storm Calvin has formed Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 110.6W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES It is forecast to be a hurricane in 36 hours, peak at 85mph and head west in the open ocean. Discussion notes that intensity forecast may be conservative and there could be rapid strengthening INIT 12/0900Z 12.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 12.7N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 13.4N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 14.1N 124.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 14.7N 127.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 15.8N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 16.9N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH Edited July 20, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 12, 2023 AI Rapid intensification index not really impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 12, 2023 5:00 AM HST Wed Jul 12Location: 12.7°N 112.2°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1002 mbMax sustained: 50 mph..CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) 11:00 PM HST Wed Jul 12Location: 12.4°N 116.0°WMoving: W at 15 mphMin pressure: 995 mbMax sustained: 70 mph ..CALVIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON... Forecast to increase wind speed by 10 every 12 hrs. AI-RI is increased to over 50% for 25kts in 24 hrs. INIT 13/0900Z 12.4N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 12.7N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.8N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 126.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 16.8N 138.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 17.7N 145.7W 45 KT 50 MPH Edited July 13, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 13, 2023 ...CALVIN BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF EAST PACIFIC SEASON... 5:00 AM HST Thu Jul 13Location: 12.7°N 117.1°WMoving: W at 13 mphMin pressure: 993 mbMax sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 13, 2023 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 13Location: 12.8°N 118.7°WMoving: W at 14 mphMin pressure: 990 mbMax sustained: 80 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 14, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 14, 2023 ...CALVIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... 5:00 AM HST Fri Jul 14Location: 13.6°N 123.2°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 960 mbMax sustained: 120 mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.6N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.0N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.7N 128.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.3N 131.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 16.0N 133.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.6N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.2N 140.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 15, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 15, 2023 (edited) Calvin peaked just after my last post yesterday SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 124.6W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES Back down to 100mph now - Hawaii in the cone of uncertainty 5:00 AM HST Sat Jul 15Location: 14.7°N 129.0°WMoving: WNW at 16 mphMin pressure: 975 mbMax sustained: 100 mph Edited July 15, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 17, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 17, 2023 ...CALVIN EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... 11:00 PM HST Sun Jul 16Location: 16.7°N 139.7°WMoving: W at 18 mphMin pressure: 1000 mbMax sustained: 50 mph Forecast to hit/near hit the big island as either a TS or TD. Wonder if Levi is excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 18, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 18, 2023 Still looks like a hit for Hawaii and TS storm warnings are up for the big island. 2:00 AM HST Tue Jul 18Location: 17.4°N 148.4°WMoving: W at 22 mphMin pressure: 1002 mbMax sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 19, 2023 Calvin sideswiped the Big Island. History of winds... Current position This is the best look I could find since it passed during the night and the center went south (which you can see here) but the higher and colder cloud tops are disconnected from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 20, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 20, 2023 Post-Tropical Cyclone Calvin Advisory Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032023 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 19 2023 ...CALVIN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM HAWAII... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 158.5W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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