TS Cindy | Peak 60 mph 1001mb | Dissipated

[StretchCT]

This one looked better coming off the coast than 92L.  But two storms like this in June would be unprecedented.

 

 

Shear not too bad if this can consolidate

Edited June 26, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Still sloppy. Have to see what Brett does to it too. But they did up it to 50%

[StretchCT]

HAFS has it lower than Bret.

 

[StretchCT]

93L is approaching sure thing status as well. 

But intensity guidance isn't that enthusiastic.

Very likely to recurve before the islands.  Nice cluster of models.

HMON and HWRF get it to cane status

[StretchCT]

Appears to be pulsing down but you do see the S that is typical in the beginning of formation;

[StretchCT]

Looking very meh right now.

[StretchCT]

No change in chances tonight, though it is cycling up now.  Nice wave behind it too, just coming off the coast

[StretchCT]

This looks a lot better and chances are 90%

[StretchCT]

93L became TD 4 this morning

Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Forecast is for a strong tropical storm.  It should be named by either the 11am update or this afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.0N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.1N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.0N  52.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.6N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 20.9N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 23.3N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

It currently seems to by cycling down with the convection. Visible is only half through so I'll give that more time, but the convection is on the west side

Thankfully the GFS seems to be eliminating the cut off lows and progressing the pattern so this should stay away.

Edited June 22, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Still TD at 11am.  Forecast is to have it named by 0z

INIT  22/1500Z 11.3N  42.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 11.8N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 12.8N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.0N  49.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.5N  52.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 17.1N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.6N  57.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 21.7N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 24.0N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

A few models take a bit longer to push it over the hump.

Convergence/Divergence not aligned

Shear is minimal

Edited June 22, 2023 by StretchCT

[clm]

Predicted to go back to a depression after becoming a TS.  Could it be that the waters are not warm enough?

 

[StretchCT]

24 minutes ago, clm said:

Could it be that the waters are not warm enough?

HWRF has sea surface temps.  28-29c would be ok

Winds flip to the NE side and die, probably shear.

GFS showing some dry air, lopsided moisture, so combo dry air and shear.  It also redevelops it.

Edited June 22, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Still unnamed but NHC strongly suggests it will be overnight.

[StretchCT]

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[StretchCT]

Cindy eeked out a 5mph increase and 1mb deepening overnight.

5:00 AM AST Fri Jun 23
Location: 12.1°N 46.9°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
 

Still expected to peak at 60mph and dissipate thereafter. As she tucks into the middle of the ridge, the shear will relax but then reverse on the top of the ridge.  GFS has it redeveloping still and peaking at 0z on Friday well off the coast east of Bermuda, then weakening before a landfall in Canada. 

Spoiler

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 12.1N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 12.9N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.3N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.0N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.7N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 19.4N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 20.9N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 23.5N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 25.7N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NAVGEM also redevelops Cindy, but also redevelops Bret too, so red flag there.

Icon also redevelops Cindy, CMC forces remnants into a trough.

Euro also forces remnants into the trough making a breezy/gusty day for New England, NY, NJ and PA

 

 

   

[StretchCT]

First look in the morning is pretty healthy.  A little lopsided with the center on the eastern side of the clouds.

Shear is currently favorable

Edited June 23, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

ADT barely has Cindy registering.  Seems disorganized compared to this morning.

Convergence (blue) Divergence (yellow) and vorticity (orange) seemed to be fairly well lined up.  Shear hasn't changed. Some small pockets of dry are around.

 

[StretchCT]

11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 24
Location: 16.4°N 53.3°W
Moving: NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

This is likely the peak for Cindy, unless it regenerates with some interaction with the trough as indicated by the GFS/HAPS

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

After Cindy exhibited a bursting pattern with deep convection 
covering the center overnight, more recently morning visible 
satellite images show the low-level center accelerating and becoming 
exposed on the northwest end of a small area of colder than -70C 
convective cloud tops. It appears that the forecast increase in 
northwesterly shear is beginning to transpire. Despite the recent 
degradation in structure, a blend of both objective and subjective 
intensity aids still support a current intensity of 50 kt for this 
advisory, though this might be generous. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cindy later 
today and should provide a better assessment of the storm's 
intensity this afternoon.

Now that Cindy is beginning to feel the effects of increased 
northwesterly shear, its likely the system has peaked in intensity 
with weakening not far behind. Shear in the EC-SHIPS guidance is 
expected to increase to 30 kt and shift southwesterly in a day or 
so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level airmass should 
contribute to continued decay over the next several days. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast now shows Cindy weakening as soon as later 
today. Beyond 48 h, there remains uncertainty in the guidance as to 
if Cindy will dissipate. The GFS shows some sort of center 
reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3 period, though 
the GFS has a habit of being too aggressive with center 
redevelopment under sheared convection (see what recently transpired 
with Bret). In contrast, the ECMWF continues to show Cindy opening 
up into a trough axis sometime in the day 3-4 period, though it 
should be noted that some of the ECMWF ensemble members try to 
regenerate the storm later on, though not as strong as the GFS. 
Given the small size of Cindy's current circulation, it seems more 
likely Cindy will succumb to the increasingly unfavorable 
environmental conditions and dissipate before the end of the 
forecast period, and the NHC track forecast continues to indicate 
that scenario, with post-tropical status in the day 3-4 period and 
dissipation thereafter. However, this forecast is of lower than 
usual confidence, and its possible the storm could regenerate or 
reform as suggested by the GFS and high-resolution HAFS-A/B models.

The storm has accelerated a bit to the northwest this morning, with
the estimated motion at 310/17 kt. This same general motion is
expected to continue, albeit a bit slower over the next
couple of days as the system remains steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge located to its northeast. Beyond the next 24 h, the guidance
spread increases quite a bit, again primarily due to the GFS and
some of the regional hurricane models suggesting the system
attempts reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3-4 time
frame. However, the NHC track favors more of a blend between the
latest ECMWF and TVCA consensus aids, which are further south and
west, assuming a weakening tropical cyclone that continues to follow
the low- to mid-level steering flow. On the current track, Cindy
should pass well the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.4N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.8N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 20.0N  57.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.9N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 23.5N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 25.0N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 26.0N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/1200Z 28.5N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

[StretchCT]

NW shear evident on sat as center is outrunning convection.

[StretchCT]

Still getting some obs that support 50kts but Cindy looks to be taking on dry air and shear.

Can't even see it on water vapor

[StretchCT]

11:00 AM AST Sun Jun 25
Location: 20.9°N 58.0°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

NHC is forecasting it's demise in 24-36 hrs

INIT  25/1500Z 20.9N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 22.3N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 23.9N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Noted that GFS weakened it compared to earlier runs, but still regenerates it and heads it into Nova Scotia as a minimal TS

 

Euro also now has it reaching NS as well

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

GFS, Euro, Navy, Icon develop this near Bermuda and bring it into Canada.  CMC has it as a weak system and Ukie doesn't close the circulation. 

SST's below 26c once north of Bermuda

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by StretchCT