March 17-19, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation

Penn State · March 9, 2023

This coming weekend we "Spring Forward" as we set our clocks one hour ahead, and cede that precious hour of sleep and relaxation. The month of March has been anything but a march towards spring; but more of step backward towards the depths of winter's chill. It certainly feels as if this winter owes us at least one memorable storm. Likewise, it also feels as if our opportunities are limited, and that this may be the.. or one of the.. last stands that we have this winter. Unfortunately, I do not see any historical connection in the analogs for this speculative winter storm threat. I always enjoy reading about events of the past and connecting them to the events that may occur in the future, alas, this potential storm will not be tethered by those that came before it; it is free to blaze its own path. For those weary weather weenies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, it's the bottom of the ninth with two outs, two strikes, and an ace at the mound. It's time to call our shot!

The justification for this speculative winter storm is depicted in the ensembles of the GEFS, EPS, and CMCE. Though the range is long, and the envelope is wide, a storm signal is clear and present. Where this speculative threat tracks and the impacts that it unleashes are anyone's guess. Using storm trends and tracks as precedent this year, it would be reasonable to think that this will track further NW.. resulting in a cutter, as shown by the European model. However, the pattern.. at least at this moment in time.. feels a bit different. High pressure is present in Canada, as is a supply, albeit limited, of cold air. The preceding events on the 12th and 14th will track further south, delivering wintry precipitation to parts of the Mid-Atlantic that have yet to see much of anything wintry this season. In terms of teleconnections, the MJO is off the charts (literally!).. and the AO, NAO, and PNA are all neutral or favorable during this timeframe. All evidence is located in the spoiler!

In the highlighted graphics, I have included an ensemble comparison at 12z, along with the GFS surface depiction (Mainly because I like it.. 😂) and WPC day 7 forecast to get the discussion started. If this is our last stand this winter, let's ride into battle with our heads held high.. we have been hardened through winter's neglect, but are not deterred! As always, Happy Tracking! 🤓

12z Ensemble Comparison | Hour 216