Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 10, 2023 (edited) SPC has introduced a day 6-7 15% outlook for Dixie Alley. Personally won’t be surprised to see a low-topped squall threaten the southern OV. More from me later, though right now I’ll say that this has a nasty look to it. Models are showing extreme shear in the warm sector but the question is timing and amount of instability. Edited February 10, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: SPC has introduced a day 6-7 15% outlook for Dixie Alley. Personally won’t be surprised to see a low-topped squall threaten the southern OV. More from me later, though right now I’ll say that this has a nasty look to it. Models are showing extreme shear in the warm sector but the question is timing and amount of instability. Has potential to be a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 10, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 10, 2023 (edited) My 2 cents: This has a pretty classic large-scale progression to get a winter severe event. You have a system draw moisture northward while another trough dips into the west. The system shoots off to the northeast and allows for the cold front to stall in the vicinity of the Gulf coast, meanwhile southerly flow continues south of the stalled front. The next system brings that stalled front north, bringing that pooled Gulf moisture north. Euro doesn't even let the front get into the Gulf before the system draws it back north. Intense system, too. Only thing that hurts the possible scale of this event is that the second system comes in pretty quick after the first. To get the event to extend further north, you'd want more time for moisture to get up there. Instead, the focus right now is on Dixie Alley. Slow the second system down or speed up the first and allow all else be the same, then you're looking at a larger event and probably an event focused further north. Edited February 10, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 @ClicheVortex2014 School Chromebooks do not like Imgur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @ClicheVortex2014 School Chromebooks do not like Imgur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 18z GFS Sounding over me on Wednesday, February 15th in the afternoon/evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 11, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 11, 2023 (edited) 0z Euro comes in with MLCAPE around 700 in west-central Ohio, but shear isn’t as strong as it is further south. So there would be a sweet spot somewhere in Kentucky or Tennessee. 0z GFS keeps on with the Dixie Alley threat. Both models are showing some impressive parameters in eastern Texas on Wednesday. Wonder if we’re gonna see an outlook there soon. Edited February 11, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Day 5 outlook shifted west into NE TX and SE OK. They said a 30% area will likely be needed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 11, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 11, 2023 Might've been a good thing SPC held off on introducing a 30% area. GFS is looking less impressive on Thursday and more so on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 I don't think I have ever seen a Slight Risk THIS BIG! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 D4 Slight Risk still this large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 14, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 14, 2023 (edited) No exaggeration... first time I've had meaningful rain at my apartment since I got here 4 months ago. Now I'm pretty sure I just heard... thunder. Edited February 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 14, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 14, 2023 Been thunderstorming here for the last 30 mins. Had a lightning strike probably less than a mile away 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 14, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Day 3 remains similar to the Day 4 issued yesterday. Convection for our area seems to be pretty messy Thursday morning. Will be interested to see how that impacts the cold front convection later in the day. Quote SPC AC 140822 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley and Lake Erie vicinity on Thursday and Thursday evening. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and tornadoes are the primary severe hazards. ...Synopsis... Another severe episode, and potentially becoming bi-modal in spatial coverage, is forecast on Thursday through Thursday evening. A large-scale, positively tilted mid-level trough will gradually move from the central Great Plains into the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes and Ozark Plateau. A belt of intense 500-mb flow will move northeast to the east of the eastward-progressing trough axis. In the low levels, a surface low will migrate northeast from southeast MO to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the lower MS Valley and OH Valley before reaching the Appalachians. Considerable shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the OH Valley southward into the lower MS Valley. Some of these storms, likely already grown upscale into lines and bands of storms, will probably pose some risk for strong, damaging gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk. It is uncertain whether these initial storms continue east and some of them re-intensify during the day, or additional storms develop in their wake where some destabilization can occur. Regardless, it seems the warm sector with 100-500 J/kg MLCAPE will overspread much of the OH Valley. Low-topped bands of storms within strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will favor at least some threat for damaging gusts on the northern portion of the warm sector. Some of these storms or low-topped convective bands may pose a wind hazard well into the evening near/southeast of the surface low track. Farther south, multiple storm modes (i.e., linear convection and supercells) may evolve and maximize their threat during peak heating across parts of AL/MS. Richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy may result in the threat for a few tornadoes and widely scattered damaging gusts. Several clusters of storms will likely spread from west to east across the central Gulf Coast states before this activity gradually weakens, and the severe risk wanes by the mid evening along the coastal plain. ..Smith.. 02/14/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1350Z (8:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 14, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 14, 2023 (edited) Hit high wind warning criteria here Edited February 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Hit high wind warning criteria here Some areas got over 80 mph in wind gusts I'm going to get a dust storm here, never experienced it before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Some areas got over 80 mph in wind gusts I'm going to get a dust storm here, never experienced it before. Yup... Guymon (OK panhandle) hit 84 mph. There was really no indication that this could happen, but there was some wrap-around precip this morning west of there, so I wonder if some rain evaporated and brought down some of those strong winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Here is the video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yup... Guymon (OK panhandle) hit 84 mph. There was really no indication that this could happen, but there was some wrap-around precip this morning west of there, so I wonder if some rain evaporated and brought down some of those strong winds aloft. So that's not the explanation. 3 hours of 55+ mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: So that's not the explanation. 3 hours of 55+ mph wind gusts. OK Mesonet had a spot near Guymon that reached a gust of 78 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 10 hatched tornado area added on the first Day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Wasn't expecting this. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and Thursday evening. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A powerful mid-level trough will gradually move east from the central Great Plains/Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes/southern Great Plains during the period. A surface low initially over southern MO will develop northeast to central IN by early-mid afternoon, and subsequently to the Lower Great Lakes during the overnight. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep eastward across the OH Valley and the central Gulf Coast states. A surface boundary over the OH Valley will advance north as a warm front as the low develops east-northeast along it. ...Central Gulf Coast states... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Thursday morning near a cold front over AR/LA with a marginal risk for severe storms accompanying this early activity. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture into the coastal plain, while some heating amidst cloud breaks acts to destabilize the airmass. Models suggest diurnal thunderstorm development in the warm sector during peak heating, to the east of the front over parts of MS and spreading into AL. Large clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more robust updrafts. Several tornadoes (some strong) are possible and may focus in a mesoscale corridor where the greatest buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is indicated by the models, over parts of MS east into west-central AL during the early evening. By mid evening, lessening instability due to nocturnal cooling and storms consolidating into more linear modes indicate the severe risk (i.e., damaging gusts/tornado) will begin to wane, as the storms move east into eastern AL/western GA/FL Panhandle. ...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Showers and thunderstorms located within a strong WAA regime will be widespread across the lower OH Valley at daybreak Thursday. An isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms may continue into the early part of the morning, before this activity quickly moves northeast and away from the greater instability by midday. A rejuvenation in storms is forecast over parts of IN/KY and spreading east-northeast into OH during the afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings over west-central OH southwestward to the Kentuckiana region show weak buoyancy but large hodographs and strong speed shear in the lowest 3-6 km. It is uncertain whether a few low-topped supercells will develop within this area of potentially greater buoyancy, but convective coverage is forecast to increase during the afternoon as storms quickly move east-northeast on the northern periphery of a warm sector. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, but some tornado risk may develop with either supercells and/or line segments, given the moist boundary layer co-located with strong shear. This activity will likely reach eastern OH into the lower Great Lakes region after sunset, but forecast soundings imply these storms may remain surface based, and perhaps the risk for damaging gusts continues into the late evening. ..Smith.. 02/15/2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Wasn't expecting this. I wasn't either, very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 HRRR looks pretty wild for Tennessee and Kentucky but it's showing 2000 sbcape for northern Kentucky. Not impossible at this time of year but that'd be pretty anomalous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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