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February 7-11, 2023 | Severe Weather

ElectricStorm

By ElectricStorm
in United States

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ElectricStorm Veteran

ElectricStorm

Posted
Posted (edited)

Severe weather is back after taking a couple of weeks off. This event shouldn't be anything crazy, although Wednesday in LA is looking a bit interesting on the latest HRRR. Storm mode could be questionable but if anything can stay discrete it could be dangerous. 

refcmp.us_sc.thumb.png.5e4be55fff62b4cce0a7da3a204404fc.png

SPC just upgraded that area to a slight risk including a 5% tornado area 

day2otlk_0700.thumb.gif.c943e724e7e67261dd070d9fe31d0d26.gif

Edited by ElectricStorm
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  • The title was changed to February 7-9, 2023 | Severe Weather
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ClicheVortex2014 Grand Master

ClicheVortex2014

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  • Meteorologist
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Now up to 1.7 inches there, I got 1.2 so far.

3/10ths of an inch of precip since November here. Brutal to say the least.

Thankfully I have tomorrow off. I've been learning about tornadogenesis on radar the past week so I'll be trying to look for some things I learned

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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snowlover2 Grand Master

snowlover2

Posted
Posted
Quote 
  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND
   WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into
   tonight, mainly across parts of the lower into middle Mississippi
   Valley.  Some of these will be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes,
   a couple of which could become strong this evening across parts of
   eastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas into western and central
   Mississippi.

   ...Synopsis...
   The more prominent belt of split mid-latitude westerlies is
   undergoing considerable amplification across the eastern Pacific
   into western North America.  This will continue through this period,
   with mid-level ridging building inland of the Canadian and U.S.
   Pacific coast by late tonight.  As this occurs, a vigorous
   downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig sharply along the
   Rockies, with mid-level flow ahead of it trending southwesterly and
   strengthening across the southern Great Plains through the Ohio
   Valley.

   A significant mid-level trough/elongating low is already beginning
   to pivot east of the southern Rockies as it begins to interact with
   a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
   The trough axis is likely to gradually take on an increasingly
   negative tilt across Oklahoma and Texas during the day today, before
   accelerating north-northeastward through the middle
   Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday.  Models
   continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will
   contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis from near/northwest
   of the Ark-La-Tex by late this afternoon into areas north-northeast
   of the St. Louis area by the end of the period.

   In the wake of a couple of significant recent cold intrusions,
   boundary modification over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is still
   underway.  Mid/upper 60s surface dew points have advected inland
   within at least a shallow pre-cold frontal plume across Texas
   coastal areas into portions of the Piney Woods.  A somewhat more
   substantive influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to overspread the
   Louisiana coast through much of the lower Mississippi Valley later
   today through tonight.  Near the northwestern periphery of mid-level
   subtropical ridging, centered and becoming a bit more prominent
   across the Bahamas, mid/upper-levels are relatively warm, and lapse
   rates might not become particularly steep.  However, the development
   of weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE still appears probable
   within the evolving warm sector, in the presence of strengthening
   deep-layer shear which is expected to become sufficient for
   organized convection, including supercells.

   ...Southeastern Great Plains into Mississippi Valley...
   The primary mid-level trough may be preceded to its south and
   southeast by one or two subtropical perturbations, and the influence
   of associated forcing for ascent on thunderstorm development within
   the plume of returning moisture, while the boundary-layer attempts
   to destabilize inland of coastal areas, remains unclear.

   At the present time, the low-level moisture return associated with
   the stronger low-level flow (still around 40-50 kt around 850 mb) is
   tending to be undercut by the eastward advancing cold front, to the
   south of the developing surface low over northeast Texas. 
   Meanwhile, convection allowing models generally indicate that a
   considerable amount of convection may commence in the  destabilizing
   warm sector, well ahead of the cold front, across portions of
   Louisiana into Mississippi this afternoon.  This would likely be
   prior to substantive strengthening of the low-level wind fields and
   associated hodographs, though the environment could be supportive of
   at least weak updraft rotation.

   Depending on the impact of earlier convective development, forcing
   along and just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front likely
   will become the focus for increasing vigorous thunderstorm
   development late this afternoon and evening.  This probably will
   including one or two evolving lines, with supercells embedded within
   and perhaps preceding it.  Coupled with strengthening southerly 850
   mb flow along a corridor near/east of the Mississippi River, as
   surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a window of opportunity may develop
   this evening for one or two sustained, long tracked supercells
   capable of producing strong tornadoes.

   The possible lingering influence of at least a shallow residual
   stable surface-based layer results in more uncertainty concerning
   severe weather potential closer to the track of the surface cyclone.
    However, mid/upper forcing for ascent and deep-layer mean wind
   fields/shear will be stronger across this region, and could
   contribute to potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps
   tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Supinie.. 02/08/2023

 

day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif

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snowlover2 Grand Master

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

Officially confirmed now.

Quote 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
559 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

LAC105-MSC113-090030-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230209T0030Z/
Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-
559 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
PIKE COUNTIES...

At 558 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Kentwood, or 10
miles northeast of Greensburg, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Osyka around 615 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Tangipahoa.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 58 and 66.
 Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 8.

 

  • YUCK 1
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  • The title was changed to February 7-11, 2023 | Severe Weather

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