February 5-7, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation

[Penn State]

In researching the upcoming pattern.. I discovered an analog in a winter storm that occurred on February 8th-12th of ‘94. Categorized as a major winter storm, and ranked 20th overall on the NESIS scale, this historical event impacted parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. 10-20” of snow fell across the Susquehanna Valley, and 20-30” of snow blanketed portions of Massachusetts. In addition to widespread snowfall, this winter storm also had significant icing impacts further south. Coincidentally, this storm in ‘94 followed heavy rains in Southern California, similar to its projected analog in the first week of February. You can watch the historical live coverage of the Weather Channel by accessing the provided link. Of course, this upcoming winter storm potential is speculative, and long-range forecasting (Anything over 48 hours nowadays.. 😜) is far from a sure thing. With that being said, the pattern is supportive; and if seasonal forecasts are to be believed, this may be one of the final supportive patterns we see until the winter 2023-‘24. 😩 At any rate.. The BSR and EAR are supportive, as each indicate a trough in the Eastern U.S. The BSR reflects a system lifting from the Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the eastern seaboard. The MJO, although in phases 1 and 2.. passed through phases 7 and 8 about 2 1/2 weeks ago, and there is lag time between that pass through and the effects of the MJO; however, I wouldn’t call this overly supportive. SSTs in the Pacific continue a transition from La Niña to more neutral conditions, which should assist better ridging in the Western U.S. In terms of teleconnections, the AO briefly turns negative, and the PNA positive during this timeframe, both supportive of a potential threat. However, the NAO remains positive.. which is unfavorable, particularly in terms of this potential threat coming too far north, or “making the turn” up the coast. There’s not much support on the ensembles; however, you can identify a defined area of MSLPs off the coast, moving NE, on the GEFS and EPS. The GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS each have a disturbance, though disagree on placement and details. All of the data that I’ve discussed can be found in the spoiler, and following the 12z runs tomorrow, I will do a model and ensemble round-up as a follow-up.

This winter has been a struggle for many of the faithful on this forum, and while nothing is guaranteed, I sure do hope this potential winter storm threat produces the winter wonderland folks desire. Regardless of the outcome, it will be a pleasure tracking this speculative winter storm with all of you! 

Happy Tracking! 🤓

18z GFS | Surface Map (Hours 198-270) 

18z GFS | 500 MB 

18z GEFS 

Spoiler

Analog (NOAA 8-14 Day | Centered on 2/3

NESIS Analog (2/8-2/12 of ‘94)

MJO (Historical - Through 1/26) 

-AO Forecast

+PNA Forecast 

+NAO Forecast 

BSR (Centered on 2/6)

EAR (Centered on 2/4)

ENSO Forecast 

 

[MaineJay]

I believe this could coincide with the Hudson Bay troffing kicking out to the east. If it wobbles in the right way, and it can dance with a southern stream partner, you might have something.

 Edit: upon closer inspection, it appears the Hudson Bay trof kicks out just prior to this threat. Still energy lingering, but the bulk pushes into the north Atlantic.

  GEFS shows a few tantalizing solutions.

[Penn State]

Of note at 00z.. Lack of northern stream interaction, leads to warm solution. If the northern branch could dig and interact, this has potential. Will that happen? Meh. 🤔

00z GFS

00z GDPS 

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

In researching the upcoming pattern.. I discovered an analog in a winter storm that occurred on February 8th-12th of ‘94. Categorized as a major winter storm, and ranked 20th overall on the NESIS scale, this historical event impacted parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. 10-20” of snow fell across the Susquehanna Valley, and 20-30” of snow blanketed portions of Massachusetts. In addition to widespread snowfall, this winter storm also had significant icing impacts further south. Coincidentally, this storm in ‘94 followed heavy rains in Southern California, similar to its projected analog in the first week of February. You can watch the historical live coverage of the Weather Channel by accessing the provided link. Of course, this upcoming winter storm potential is speculative, and long-range forecasting (Anything over 48 hours nowadays.. 😜) is far from a sure thing. With that being said, the pattern is supportive; and if seasonal forecasts are to be believed, this may be one of the final supportive patterns we see until the winter 2023-‘24. 😩 At any rate.. The BSR and EAR are supportive, as each indicate a trough in the Eastern U.S. The BSR reflects a system lifting from the Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the eastern seaboard. The MJO, although in phases 1 and 2.. passed through phases 7 and 8 about 2 1/2 weeks ago, and there is lag time between that pass through and the effects of the MJO; however, I wouldn’t call this overly supportive. SSTs in the Pacific continue a transition from La Niña to more neutral conditions, which should assist better ridging in the Western U.S. In terms of teleconnections, the AO briefly turns negative, and the PNA positive during this timeframe, both supportive of a potential threat. However, the NAO remains positive.. which is unfavorable, particularly in terms of this potential threat coming too far north, or “making the turn” up the coast. There’s not much support on the ensembles; however, you can identify a defined area of MSLPs off the coast, moving NE, on the GEFS and EPS. The GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS each have a disturbance, though disagree on placement and details. All of the data that I’ve discussed can be found in the spoiler, and following the 12z runs tomorrow, I will do a model and ensemble round-up as a follow-up.

This winter has been a struggle for many of the faithful on this forum, and while nothing is guaranteed, I sure do hope this potential winter storm threat produces the winter wonderland folks desire. Regardless of the outcome, it will be a pleasure tracking this speculative winter storm with all of you! 

Happy Tracking! 🤓

18z GFS | Surface Map (Hours 198-270) 

18z GFS | 500 MB 

18z GEFS 

  Reveal hidden contents

Analog (NOAA 8-14 Day | Centered on 2/3

NESIS Analog (2/8-2/12 of ‘94)

MJO (Historical - Through 1/26) 

-AO Forecast

+PNA Forecast 

+NAO Forecast 

BSR (Centered on 2/6)

EAR (Centered on 2/4)

ENSO Forecast 

 

Excellent Write up. 

Love on the linked Wx Channel Video at 4:50 "Thunder Ice Storms," though the Indiana & Ohio areas. 

[MaineJay]

I'd like to pass on -1° for a high temp prior to this period.

[NEPAsnow]

where's

the cold

 

[NEPAsnow]

at least something to track

[Penn State]

38 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

where's

the cold

 

It’s close.. There’s an injection, but it’s a little late. Better than 06z! 

[MaineJay]

42 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

where's

the cold

 

Plenty cold 2 days prior, but got no staying power.

 

[Sentinel]

I'll be honest. I'm pretty close to just rooting for a complete shutout of the midatl and NYC area regarding snow

[NEPAsnow]

maybe something brewing!!

[NEPAsnow]

[NEPAsnow]

well it has a storm

 

Big storms come North West 

[Wtkidz]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Plenty cold 2 days prior, but got no staying power.

 

That’s what she said….. sorry had to…I will return to my underground bunker. 

[Penn State]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

I'll be honest. I'm pretty close to just rooting for a complete shutout of the midatl and NYC area regarding snow

When I first read this I was like.. I’m never giving up, refuse to lose! Then after waking around our local Ice Fest.. at a crisp 55 degrees, I was like.. Yep, an early spring will work just fine 😂

[Penn State]

Just looking over the 500mb.. The GFS has interaction and dig, and the most impressive system. It still lacks cold air, but it’s not far behind. The GDPS has the least interaction between the northern and southern branches, looks warm, long distance for  any cold to cover and inject in. The ECMWF just comes together too late, has interaction, but not much dig. 

[Penn State]

At the surface.. hour 204.. You can see these differences playing out.

GFS > ECMWF > GDPS …but nothing is particularly impressive or definite. Models still have a lot of ground to cover with the split flow. 

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

This is probably the best shot for a significant storm for a bit as the cold pulls out. We often see storms form this way when the cold enters or departs. Models will of course struggle as they always do lol but more so considering there's so many SW's in the flow between now and then.

 

[Wtkidz]

Out to sea and south as presently modeled.  

[Brodozer1]

On 1/28/2023 at 12:18 PM, Penn State said:

It’s close.. There’s an injection, but it’s a little late. Better than 06z! 

More rain for ct just great

[Brodozer1]

22 hours ago, Penn State said:

When I first read this I was like.. I’m never giving up, refuse to lose! Then after waking around our local Ice Fest.. at a crisp 55 degrees, I was like.. Yep, an early spring will work just fine 😂

Golf

[Penn State]

Well.. the 18z GFS and the 12z GDPS are still in the game. Actually.. the ole 🍁 is quite close. 

[Penn State]

5 hours ago, Wtkidz said:

Out to sea and south as presently modeled.  

This is actually just before the dates for this thread. The 5th to the 7th has been close, just OTS on most modeling. However, that may not be the worst thing at this distance. I do wish this potential could have been further north.. but doesn’t look great. 

[MaineJay]

5 hours ago, Brodozer1 said:

More rain for ct just great

[Penn State]

Saw the NAVGEM posted earlier as well.. Interesting evolution. Starts off the coast, gets drawn-in. If Nav rule applies.. this should be further West.