December 27-28, 2022 | Winter Storm Speculation

[Penn State]

According to the Huntsville Times (2003), New Years Eve ‘63 was much unlike any before or any after. The forecast called for rain mixed with sleet; however, that rain changed to snow.. and when all was set and done, Huntsville residents measured over a foot of snow! You may be wondering.. why are we talking about New Years Eve 1963? ..and furthermore, why Huntsville, Alabama? Well.. According to NOAA’s 6-10 day analogs, the #1 comparison is December 30th, 1963. It begs the question, can history repeat? The developing storm system in ‘63 eventually lifted north from the Gulf of Mexico, tracking along the East Coast.. which just so happens to be similar to the most recent model guidance centered on 12/28/2022. In terms of support for this speculative potential, teleconnections are favorable as the PNA is forecasted to be positive, accompanied by a negative NAO and AO. Our most recent arctic air injection will be retreating; however, that lends an opportunity as storms tend to form on the front and back of an injection of cold air. Operational model guidance from the 00z GDPS is most ambitious at the moment, forming a clearly defined low in the Gulf, and strengthening it as it lifts north along the East Coast. The 00z GFS keeps all unsettled weather out-to-sea. The 00z ECMWF is the least defined of the model guidance thus far. There’s also support, although soft, from the 00z GEFS, which indicates a low well off the Southeast Coast. Both the EPS and CMCE are less impressive than the GEFS. Of course, this is a speculative potential, and as such, a storm may or may not ultimately develop. As always, happy tacking and happy holidays! 

00z GEFS (Hours 168-240)

00z EPS (Hours 168-240)

00z CMCE (Hours 168-240) 

Spoiler

00z GFS (Hours 168-240)

00z GDPS (Hours 168-240) 

00z ECMWF (Hours 168-240)

00z 500 MB Comparison @ Hour 204

Teleconnections (+PNA, -NAO, -AO)

+PNA 

-NAO

-AO

NOAA 6-10 Day Analogs 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Penn State

[telejunkie]

CMC been taking a liking to this timeframe when other ops have not. Here it's depiction of the Huntsville storm in its overnight run...height rise out in front allows it to come up the coast after.

Edited December 20, 2022 by telejunkie

[telejunkie]

And just to show potential that is on the table per 0z Euro which was a miss...two small shortwaves already hanging around (green & red) and a diving energy (yellow) that could pick them up....

[Penn State]

12z GDPS Model Guidance 

Surface (Hours 156-204)

500 MB (Hours 156-204)

[MDBlueridge]

probably rain for cromwell, ct 

[Brodozer1]

well gives us something to watch and talk about and cross our fingers and, toes, legs, eyes, arms

[Penn State]

12z GFS Model Guidance

Surface (Hours 156-204)

500 MB (Hours 156-204)

[Penn State]

12z ECMWF Model Guidance 

Surface (Hours 156-204)

500 MB (Hours 156-204)

[Penn State]

12z Ensemble Comparison (GEFS vs. EPS vs. CMCE)

The GEFS had the signal last night.. however.. that's shifted to the EPS today. After looking at the guidance as a whole, I think timing (as usual) will be important. If each piece of energy aligns and interacts, the potential is there for a moderate winter weather event. If that fails to occur, this is OTS. 

[Penn State]

00z Model Guidance 

GFS (Hours 144-192)

Spoiler

Surface 

500 MB

ECMWF (Hours 144-192)

Spoiler

Surface 

500 MB

GDPS (Hours 144-192) 

Spoiler

Surface

500 MB

Ensemble Comparison (GEFS, EPS, CMCE) @ Hour 168

Discussion:

The ECMWF and EPS continue to have the strongest signal at 00z. The GFS and GDPS both have the potential storm; however, it is well suppressed to the South and East. There are likely to be changes once our current storm departs, which should add more clarity to this threat. The 500 MB charts indicate some robust energy will be available. The ridging in the West would need to be a little more west-based and the trough in the East would need to have a negative orientation a little sooner, all while tapping what fleeting cold air is available. This should be monitored for a NW shift, for if one does occur, it would put the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in-play. 

[Brodozer1]

💤

[telejunkie]

Overnight Euro certainly looked good here.....then just kinda washed out.

Still popped SLP down south, but didn't come up to party....got a long way to go...

[bigben89]

On 12/20/2022 at 1:00 AM, Penn State said:

According to the Huntsville Times (2003), New Years Eve ‘63 was much unlike any before or any after. The forecast called for rain mixed with sleet; however, that rain changed to snow.. and when all was set and done, Huntsville residents measured over a foot of snow! You may be wondering.. why are we talking about New Years Eve 1963? ..and furthermore, why Huntsville, Alabama? Well.. According to NOAA’s 6-10 day analogs, the #1 comparison is December 30th, 1963. It begs the question, can history repeat? The developing storm system in ‘63 eventually lifted north from the Gulf of Mexico, tracking along the East Coast.. which just so happens to be similar to the most recent model guidance centered on 12/28/2022. In terms of support for this speculative potential, teleconnections are favorable as the PNA is forecasted to be positive, accompanied by a negative NAO and AO. Our most recent arctic air injection will be retreating; however, that lends an opportunity as storms tend to form on the front and back of an injection of cold air. Operational model guidance from the 00z GDPS is most ambitious at the moment, forming a clearly defined low in the Gulf, and strengthening it as it lifts north along the East Coast. The 00z GFS keeps all unsettled weather out-to-sea. The 00z ECMWF is the least defined of the model guidance thus far. There’s also support, although soft, from the 00z GEFS, which indicates a low well off the Southeast Coast. Both the EPS and CMCE are less impressive than the GEFS. Of course, this is a speculative potential, and as such, a storm may or may not ultimately develop. As always, happy tacking and happy holidays! 

00z GEFS (Hours 168-240)

00z EPS (Hours 168-240)

00z CMCE (Hours 168-240) 

  Reveal hidden contents

00z GFS (Hours 168-240)

00z GDPS (Hours 168-240) 

00z ECMWF (Hours 168-240)

00z 500 MB Comparison @ Hour 204

Teleconnections (+PNA, -NAO, -AO)

+PNA 

-NAO

-AO

NOAA 6-10 Day Analogs 

 

 

[Penn State]

29 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

 

So far.. That about sums it up lol ..However, there are still several days to go and I would at least like to see what this looks like after the current storm departs. If this doesn't develop, I think the next opportunity may not be for a few weeks. We'll see what happens! 

[bigben89]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

So far.. That about sums it up lol ..However, there are still several days to go and I would at least like to see what this looks like after the current storm departs. If this doesn't develop, I think the next opportunity may not be for a few weeks. We'll see what happens! 

Is it me or do the computer models seem worse than they've even been?

[Penn State]

11 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Is it me or do the computer models seem worse than they've even been?

The last that I saw verification scores, they seem to be on par with the past. I do think our expectations have changed. There was a time of patience with error, and in today's world I think that we have no patience for error. Just to echo what others have said on the forums.. I think @Uscg Ast mentioned this, but we have to start with pattern recognition, then ensemble trends, and then operational model guidance once a track has been determined. I fail miserably at this, because I want the storm to happen, so I look for what's there to make it happen at the expense of better judgement. I do my best though, so there's that lol

[Penn State]

Here's the operational comparison for 12z.. Admittedly, not looking so good at the moment. Trough is more positive, MSLPs further south and east. 

[TLChip]

Most of us are snow lovers so we’re highly biased (not all but most here). Like Uscg and Penn pointed at it’s the order in which you take the information and how you filter it.
 

Looking at a radar simulation 7+ days on an operation run wont always show you what happens, but if you look at the ensembles and where high pressure, low pressures, troughs, ridges and waves are going you’ll get an idea of where the weather should be. 

Long range forecasting is past me, talking about ENSO teleconnections, patterns setting up and breaking patterns. I know a few general things but honestly I’m always going back to google for different effects of each. 

[Tater]

8 hours ago, TLChip said:

 Long range forecasting is past me, talking about ENSO teleconnections, patterns setting up and breaking patterns. I know a few general things but honestly I’m always going back to google for different effects of each. 

I'll give you a few pointers. Just throw around acronyms like MJO, EPO, and BSR and everyone will assume you know what you are talking about. Throw in a few fancy terms like orographic lifting, deformation zone, or la nina for good measure. And if you really want to convince everyone you're really on top of things, add a few big words like baroclinicity, frontogenesis, or photosynthesis.

Ok, maybe not that last one.  Don't use bombogenesis either, as that might tip folks off that you are a pretender. If you want to prove you are a regular here, include "etc" (stands for "Empty Tito's Count").

Edited December 22, 2022 by Tater

[telejunkie]

11 hours ago, Tater said:

I'll give you a few pointers. Just throw around acronyms like MJO, EPO, and BSR and everyone will assume you know what you are talking about. Throw in a few fancy terms like orographic lifting, deformation zone, or la nina for good measure. And if you really want to convince everyone you're really on top of things, add a few big words like baroclinicity, frontogenesis, or photosynthesis.

Ok, maybe not that last one.  Don't use bombogenesis either, as that might tip folks off that you are a pretender. If you want to prove you are a regular here, include "etc" (stands for "Empty Tito's Count").

You forgot polar vortex after bombogenesis.....

Overnight Euro continues to show the "potential" there  but, in this scenario to me at least, the energy over Alberta acts as a pry bar keeping the northern energy trying to dive into the US from jumping. Southern energy can't tilt tilt and wanders off the coast harmlessly. Still a ways to go....but  as @Penn State alludes to, not looking great atm.

[Brodozer1]

this is not looking good right now might have to move on to Jan 🥱

[bigben89]

Current look at the forecast for the first of January

[so_whats_happening]

GFS suggests it runs into too much confluence just to our east. Would like to see a little bit of more lax pattern around Maine. Pretty decent look at a clipper in the midwest though.

[so_whats_happening]

Ridge just gets flattened out west sends the energy over central Canada over to the upper level low east of the Hudson essentially squashing any potential of a storm and leaving the trough in the U.S. positive. No ridge can pump up across eastern seaboard/Maine to allow things to tip. Should be a decent clipper in the plains remains to be seen what will happen, if anything, east of the apps.

[Brodozer1]

looks like it is warming up again for next weekend back to the 50s