November 23-27, 2022 | Potential Thanksgiving Storm

[Ingyball]

A bit early but I have some confidence we'll see an impactful storm during this period. I won't post any individual deterministic model runs (there have been some crazy ones) but will share some of the medium to long term signals. Right now it looks like the deterministic models are pretty progressive with the waves that will move over the U.S around Thanksgiving. With the MJO entering phase 7 and the AO trending negative leading up to this storm I think there's going to be enough blocking to slow the pattern down.

 

I find it interesting that the NAO and PNA both trend negative this week. That suggests we're going to see a ridge somewhere in the Plains or Mississippi Valley. That ridge should shift east with this storm system and thus the NAO trends back positive.  This would also favor something that cuts further west depending on how far west the ridge is. There's still a lot of uncertainty with the teleconnection forecast however, which makes the actual pattern highly uncertain. It's something definitely worth watching though. 

[StormfanaticInd]

57 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

A bit early but I have some confidence we'll see an impactful storm during this period. I won't post any individual deterministic model runs (there have been some crazy ones) but will share some of the medium to long term signals. Right now it looks like the deterministic models are pretty progressive with the waves that will move over the U.S around Thanksgiving. With the MJO entering phase 7 and the AO trending negative leading up to this storm I think there's going to be enough blocking to slow the pattern down.

 

I find it interesting that the NAO and PNA both trend negative this week. That suggests we're going to see a ridge somewhere in the Plains or Mississippi Valley. That ridge should shift east with this storm system and thus the NAO trends back positive.  This would also favor something that cuts further west depending on how far west the ridge is. There's still a lot of uncertainty with the teleconnection forecast however, which makes the actual pattern highly uncertain. It's something definitely worth watching though. 

This has been pn my radar

[Iceresistance]

19 hours ago, Ingyball said:

A bit early but I have some confidence we'll see an impactful storm during this period. I won't post any individual deterministic model runs (there have been some crazy ones) but will share some of the medium to long term signals. Right now it looks like the deterministic models are pretty progressive with the waves that will move over the U.S around Thanksgiving. With the MJO entering phase 7 and the AO trending negative leading up to this storm I think there's going to be enough blocking to slow the pattern down.

 

I find it interesting that the NAO and PNA both trend negative this week. That suggests we're going to see a ridge somewhere in the Plains or Mississippi Valley. That ridge should shift east with this storm system and thus the NAO trends back positive.  This would also favor something that cuts further west depending on how far west the ridge is. There's still a lot of uncertainty with the teleconnection forecast however, which makes the actual pattern highly uncertain. It's something definitely worth watching though. 

It has been on my Radar for a while because of the December potential, the MJO forecast is eerily similar to 1989 and 1983.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Iceresistance
Forgot to specify

[junior]

Also been watching this. Models been really consistent on a trough during this period. Not much cold around like this week though but we’ll see. Still out there. 

[Ingyball]

It's always fun to see some of the early model runs. The GFS is super progressive and has a snow storm in Pennsylvania and New York, CMC has it over Kansas, and the Euro is so slow it just sits over New Mexico with 5" of QPF and more still to come. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Weird run but who knows

[StormfanaticInd]

The models are really having a hard time with this potential blocking. Maybe phase 6 is playing a role to 🤔

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Cross-country storm to threaten travel headaches around Thanksgiving

 

As nearly 55 million people travel for Thanksgiving this year, AccuWeather's experts say a developing storm system could pose travel concerns before, during and after the holiday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/travel/cross-country-storm-to-threaten-travel-headaches-around-thanksgiving/1336956?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR035COMD5ZG4vsdv7MgHMzy1byjEBDkW-ctxxvMznuhgi7tKSVbCZqp70U

[snowlover2]

Nice band of snow/snow showers moving through here now.

[btbucks]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Nice band of snow/snow showers moving through here now.

Same here

[Ingyball]

Trend has been slower and west on the models like I thought. Might get some precipitation out of this. Will be interesting to see if that trend continue. 

[Ingyball]

I'm absolutely loving this cutoff low on the GFS. May be too far south to benefit me, but would be amazing for Texas and maybe Oklahoma 

[1816]

12 hours ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said:

Cross-country storm to threaten travel headaches around Thanksgiving

 

As nearly 55 million people travel for Thanksgiving this year, AccuWeather's experts say a developing storm system could pose travel concerns before, during and after the holiday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/travel/cross-country-storm-to-threaten-travel-headaches-around-thanksgiving/1336956?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR035COMD5ZG4vsdv7MgHMzy1byjEBDkW-ctxxvMznuhgi7tKSVbCZqp70U

They should make a movie about that

 

[Iceresistance]

10 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I'm absolutely loving this cutoff low on the GFS. May be too far south to benefit me, but would be amazing for Texas and maybe Oklahoma 

Yeah, Oklahoma and Texas really need it more because the drought is worse down here.

[junior]

Models having a hard time with this. GFS has a nice bowler looking setup but too bad there's no cold around. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by junior

[snowlover2]

12 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I'm absolutely loving this cutoff low on the GFS. May be too far south to benefit me, but would be amazing for Texas and maybe Oklahoma 

12z GFS jumped ship on the cut off idea.

[Ingyball]

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS jumped ship on the cut off idea.

Yeah we'll see if it's just one run or a new trend, but I think the cutoff idea is right, but where it cuts off is still up in the air.

[Ingyball]

UKMET has been pretty consistent with the evolution of the trough, location has been different (but not nearly as varied as the other 3 global models). 

[StormfanaticInd]

Models are lost lol

[NWOhioChaser]

Going to focus on tele’s this far out. Looks like decent blocking in all the right areas. Just need more cold in place for anything widespread wintery.

[junior]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Models are lost lol

Yea they've been horrible on this system, however consistent on there being one.

[Ingyball]

18z GFS back to showing a cutoff in the Plains. Even for deterministic models these flips are crazy when we're talking only 4 to 5 days out

[Ingyball]

The GFS definitely tries here lol. Would be something if we trended towards that. 

[Ingyball]

12z EC crushes the Texas Panhandle with snow lol

 

 

 

Further north that northwest and west side of the surface low looks interesting. Right now the EC's sounding would favor rain, however with these type of systems the dynamics on that side of the low would favor cooler temperatures aloft and there's enough cold air for surface temps to be near freezing. Wouldn't surprise me if that ended up being snow or at least a mix assuming that run played out exactly like it did. 

[1816]

Bump that north a bit and it might be a heck of a time to consider moving to Amarillo