Hurricane Lisa| 987mb 85mph peak| downgraded to depression

[StretchCT]

Going back a bit, GFS and later CMC found this one.  NHC posted an egg, then took it down.

Now look at it.

 

Current guidance is Belize/Yucatan area

Progged to hit 90mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.3N  81.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.6N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.8N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.0N  88.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N  89.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/0000Z 17.0N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1200Z 17.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Edited November 3, 2022 by StretchCT

[Iceresistance]

Holy Pinhole eye! 

A. 01/22:39:00Z
B. 16.72 deg N 083.81 deg W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 997 mb
E. 130 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 44 kt
I. 119 deg 25 nm 22:28:30Z
J. 183 deg 44 kt
K. 098 deg 8 nm 22:33:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 046 deg 6 nm 22:41:00Z
N. 136 deg 59 kt
O. 046 deg 8 nm 22:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 21 C / 1520 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1015A LISA    OB 03
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 046 / 8 NM 22:41:30Z

 

[StretchCT]

Almost there

11:00 PM EDT Tue Nov 1
Location: 16.8°N 84.7°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
 

Still a chance for RI before landfall per disco

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found that Lisa is strengthening this evening. Lisa is a small storm, with tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to 60 n mi from the center. The minimum central pressure continues to fall, and the latest estimate from the dropsonde observations is 993 mb. Data from the SFMR and Tail Doppler Radar show that surface or near-surface winds range between 55 to 60 kt, and the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Lisa is on a strengthening trend. Models suggest atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be conducive for additional intensification until the storm makes landfall in Belize within 24 hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is still possible. The official forecast shows a peak of 75 kt in 12 hours, however the true peak intensity will likely occur between 12 and 24 hours and could be higher. Rapid weakening is expected after the storm moves inland, and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche in 72 to 96 hours and weaken to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The storm is moving just north of west at 280/13 kt. The track reasoning is unchanged. A ridge to the north will continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall on Wednesday evening. The storm is expected to follow the flow around the low-to-mid level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 3 days or so. The cyclone is then expected to turn southward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory in the short term, and the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been adjusted northward to account for this shift.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Made it to hurricane before landfall, still strengthening.

7:00 AM CDT Wed Nov 2
Location: 17.2°N 86.7°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

Still progged for 85 mph and will exit into the Bay of Campeche where it's expected to die.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 17.1N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.5N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 17.6N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z 18.2N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/1800Z 19.0N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/0600Z 20.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 19.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Edited November 2, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

She's almost there.

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Nov 2
Location: 17.4°N 88.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
 

 

[Iceresistance]

Made landfall very close to Belize City, Belize.

[StretchCT]

420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022
 
...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...
 
Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made 
landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun 
River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT 
(2120 UTC).  The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph 
(140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 
mb (29.24 inches).
 
SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 

[StretchCT]

Back to TS

10:00 PM CDT Wed Nov 2
Location: 17.6°N 89.1°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[StretchCT]

Footage from Hurricane Lisa in Belize

 

[StretchCT]

Lisa down to a depression and although forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche, not expected to regenerate due to shear.

Spoiler

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has been inland for about 18 hours, and there are no
observations of tropical-storm-force winds.  Also, using a standard
rate of decay over land shows the cyclone weakening below tropical
storm intensity by now.  Therefore the system is being downgraded
to a tropical depression on this advisory.

Satellite fixes and observations from the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar
indicate that the cyclone continues moving mainly westward and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.  Over the next couple of
days, Lisa should gradually turn to the northwest and north while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high.  In
2-3 days, the increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to meander
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within a weak low-level flow.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
follows the multi-model consensus guidance, TVCA.

Lisa is forecast to move over the waters of the Bay of Campeche in
24 hours.  Global models show strong southerly to
south-southwesterly upper-level winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days.  The associated strong vertical
shear should prevent re-intensification.  Global model simulations
also show Lisa's mid- to upper-level vorticity maximum being sheared
north-northeastward into the northern Gulf while the low-level
circulation remains over the Bay of Campeche.  The official
intensity forecast, like the previous ones, shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 3 days.