TS Karl | Hydra Julia| Peak1000mb 60mph | 1000mb 45mph weakening

[StretchCT]

Invest 93L is operational now, and actually looks pretty impressive (more on that next post).  Looking at some longer satellite loops, seems Julia split off, with part over Pacific, and part moving into the Bay of Campeche.  My guess would be that the vertical structure split, but I can't really tell at this point.

Edited October 14, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Looking at 93L there is definitely circulation and convection.  Just not sure if the wind is there yet. SFMR is. Edit - plane just getting in there now, those were earlier readings in the northern gulf.  

Mexican radar isn't helpful though. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

HRWF, HMON, GFS, Euro, Navy, ICON just have the storm loop around and stay in the same general area for 3-4 days before moving onshore or dissipating.  There's a front/trough coming through hrs 144-165 which if the system is still around would get swept out and northeast.  

 

[StretchCT]

Hurricane models have this at TS already

 

[StretchCT]

47 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

My guess would be that the vertical structure split, but I can't really tell at this point.

Reason I say this is it looks like there's a surface spin still in the Pacific, and I've seen mid and upper levels shear off systems before.  So it's possible the spin in the Bay is the mid/upper level remnants and the spin in the Pacific is the surface low. 

NHC up to 80%

[StretchCT]

Not really finding any circulation at 1400 feet. 

 

[StretchCT]

ASCAT says there is circulation, no wind

Then again, this version has more winds, enough for a depression

 

 

[StretchCT]

Karl is born, 40mph

4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
Location: 19.6°N 94.4°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Found center of circulation as noted above in ASCAT.  Disco noted plane found circulation too.

Not much expected from this except rain

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche.  Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt.  The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so.  Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days.  The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so.  This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall.  Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 19.6N  94.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 20.3N  94.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 21.1N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 21.2N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 20.7N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 20.2N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.9N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
 

 

[so_whats_happening]

Definitely an interesting progression. A wave became a storm became a wave became a storm. Lets just hope this stays close to land mass and doesn't get the chance to develop. Westerlies are picking up quite a bit so recurve is always a potential.

[StretchCT]

7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 21.5°N 94.8°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
 

Karl not expected to go places. Though it would be fun if he popped back into the Pacific and reformed.

[StretchCT]

Some outliers exist but now many. 

 

[StretchCT]

22 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Reason I say this is it looks like there's a surface spin still in the Pacific, and I've seen mid and upper levels shear off systems before.  So it's possible the spin in the Bay is the mid/upper level remnants and the spin in the Pacific is the surface low. 

 

 

 

Nice to have a professional validate this idea. 

 

[Iceresistance]

@StretchCTKarl is now at 60 mph and 1002 mb

[clm]

What is Hydra Julia??

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, clm said:

What is Hydra Julia??

Originated from the energy from Julia

[StretchCT]

11 minutes ago, clm said:

What is Hydra Julia??

Hydra was a creature who if you cut off its head, grew back two.  So Julia got chopped up and looks like will form two storms.  Although I just checked and the NHC only has the Pacific storm as 20%.  

[StretchCT]

10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 22.4°N 94.3°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

 

dont see stationary vey often 

[so_whats_happening]

Good to see not much will come out of Karl except a heavy rain threat in Central America. It looks like that shear did a number on the storm and actually pulled a little bit of moisture into the trough swinging through. This will probably be the reason some areas of SNE and NE will get quite a bit of rain.

[StretchCT]

7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
Location: 22.1°N 94.1°W
Moving: SE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
 

Karl is expected to continue to weaken before it makes landfall.

[StretchCT]

7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
Location: 19.9°N 92.3°W
Moving: SE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Moving pretty slowly - NHC has it at 40mph, but sfmr winds from latest recon are 45kts with flight level at 40kts. They are at 5,000 feet.  So I'm going to hold off updating until 11am (if I remember).

 

[StretchCT]

Winds up 5mph

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
Location: 19.4°N 92.7°W
Moving: SSE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[Iceresistance]

It's now almost a goner

[Iceresistance]

And now he is, almost literally disappeared from the face of the earth. 

[StretchCT]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES