Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) Invest 93L is operational now, and actually looks pretty impressive (more on that next post). Looking at some longer satellite loops, seems Julia split off, with part over Pacific, and part moving into the Bay of Campeche. My guess would be that the vertical structure split, but I can't really tell at this point. Edited October 14, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) Looking at 93L there is definitely circulation and convection. Just not sure if the wind is there yet. SFMR is. Edit - plane just getting in there now, those were earlier readings in the northern gulf. Mexican radar isn't helpful though. Edited October 11, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 HRWF, HMON, GFS, Euro, Navy, ICON just have the storm loop around and stay in the same general area for 3-4 days before moving onshore or dissipating. There's a front/trough coming through hrs 144-165 which if the system is still around would get swept out and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 Hurricane models have this at TS already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, StretchCT said: My guess would be that the vertical structure split, but I can't really tell at this point. Reason I say this is it looks like there's a surface spin still in the Pacific, and I've seen mid and upper levels shear off systems before. So it's possible the spin in the Bay is the mid/upper level remnants and the spin in the Pacific is the surface low. NHC up to 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 Not really finding any circulation at 1400 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 ASCAT says there is circulation, no wind Then again, this version has more winds, enough for a depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2022 Karl is born, 40mph 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 Location: 19.6°N 94.4°W Moving: NW at 6 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Found center of circulation as noted above in ASCAT. Disco noted plane found circulation too. Not much expected from this except rain Spoiler Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 12, 2022 Definitely an interesting progression. A wave became a storm became a wave became a storm. Lets just hope this stays close to land mass and doesn't get the chance to develop. Westerlies are picking up quite a bit so recurve is always a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 12, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 12, 2022 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 Location: 21.5°N 94.8°W Moving: NNW at 6 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Karl not expected to go places. Though it would be fun if he popped back into the Pacific and reformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 12, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 12, 2022 Some outliers exist but now many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 12, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 12, 2022 22 hours ago, StretchCT said: Reason I say this is it looks like there's a surface spin still in the Pacific, and I've seen mid and upper levels shear off systems before. So it's possible the spin in the Bay is the mid/upper level remnants and the spin in the Pacific is the surface low. Nice to have a professional validate this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 @StretchCTKarl is now at 60 mph and 1002 mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 What is Hydra Julia?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, clm said: What is Hydra Julia?? Originated from the energy from Julia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 12, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, clm said: What is Hydra Julia?? Hydra was a creature who if you cut off its head, grew back two. So Julia got chopped up and looks like will form two storms. Although I just checked and the NHC only has the Pacific storm as 20%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 13, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 13, 2022 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 Location: 22.4°N 94.3°W Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 60 mph dont see stationary vey often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 13, 2022 Good to see not much will come out of Karl except a heavy rain threat in Central America. It looks like that shear did a number on the storm and actually pulled a little bit of moisture into the trough swinging through. This will probably be the reason some areas of SNE and NE will get quite a bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 13, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 13, 2022 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 Location: 22.1°N 94.1°W Moving: SE at 2 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 50 mph Karl is expected to continue to weaken before it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 14, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 14, 2022 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 Location: 19.9°N 92.3°W Moving: SE at 6 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Moving pretty slowly - NHC has it at 40mph, but sfmr winds from latest recon are 45kts with flight level at 40kts. They are at 5,000 feet. So I'm going to hold off updating until 11am (if I remember). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 14, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 14, 2022 Winds up 5mph 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 Location: 19.4°N 92.7°W Moving: SSE at 7 mph Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 It's now almost a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 And now he is, almost literally disappeared from the face of the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 15, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted October 15, 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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