Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 (edited) Marginal risk in place for most of the Central Plains and into the Midwest on Tuesday, could have more in the near future. Edited October 9, 2022 by Iceresistance Wrong Date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Marginal risk in place for most of the Central Plains and into the Midwest on Tuesday, could have more in the near future. First low cape high shear event of the fall. Should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians. The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A 15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 10, 2022 Way out in fantasy range but I missed seeing these on the models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2022 Author Share Posted October 10, 2022 Marginal risk in place for SW Texas today, I'm basically under a marginal risk tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2022 Author Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: 😀 It's been a while since I've seen this over most of Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2022 Author Share Posted October 10, 2022 Golf Ball Sized Hail reported in Fort Stockton, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: Golf Ball Sized Hail reported in Fort Stockton, TX You know it's the slow part of the season when this is worth mentioning 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: It's been a while since I've seen this over most of Oklahoma. Yes it's been way too long. I think I had one marginal the entire month of Sept and only 1 or 2 in August Edited October 10, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 I almost never expect severe weather from cold fronts coming from the northwest, and this one is no exception. I don't see much here except an opportunity for some thunder and mostly sub-severe winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 It's a good reminder we're entering the second severe season but I don't see much potential here. Yeah, after the past 2 months, a marginal risk is definitely worth talking about. But there are some hints that the ridiculously persistent western ridge/eastern trough may flip by the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) The pattern beyond October 18 is still worth watching due to an extended Pacific jet streak. This is valid for the same time on 0z GFS and 12z Euro (0z Euro not out yet) End of the GFS run but this is the expected result from an extended Pacific jet; a western trough. End of the 12z Euro run shows a nasty Pacific jet. Significant blocking pattern over the US though, including strong northeasterly flow over Oklahoma. So that's certainly a cog in the machine. BUT, it seems the Pacific is gonna try to load up for an interesting late-October/early-November Edited October 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 😐 Welp looks like I will be returning to my slumber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 7 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: 😐 Welp looks like I will be returning to my slumber Blame the morning convection! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 That wind is crazy, did not expect it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) Not at all impressed with what HRRR is showing for tonight, but tomorrow could be more interesting. Solid signal for a low-topped squall somewhere in S MI/IN/OH, which makes sense given everything about the setup. Pretty classic dichotomy of high shear/low cape in the north, slightly more cape/lower shear in the south. It'll be my first time being in on the latter case. Also hinting at a more well-organized morning high shear/low cape event for the Northeast. Edited October 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 Pretty decent environment in eastern Kentucky. Certainly could see some supercells there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pretty decent environment in eastern Kentucky. Certainly could see some supercells there. Tornados in the mountains always gets my attention just because I know how unexpected they are. You'd be surprised how many people still swear by the whole twisters don't happen in the mountains wives tales. I guess it's because they are so rare in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, 1816 said: Tornados in the mountains always gets my attention just because I know how unexpected they are. You'd be surprised how many people still swear by the whole twisters don't happen in the mountains wives tales. I guess it's because they are so rare in the area. My mom believes that. They currently live on top of a plateau, about 1000-1500 feet above sea level. It is cooler up there compared to surrounding lower elevations but an established supercell in the right environment is its own system and wouldn't care about elevation. Edited October 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) Won't be surprised to see the next 2 days be slight risks. I'd say eastern Kentucky/southeast Ohio has the best chance of being a slight risk tomorrow, and then at least Pennsylvania for early Thursday. Looking forward to some thunder tomorrow. Strong winds is a bonus. Edited October 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 12, 2022 Refreshing to see a MCS again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 12, 2022 I'm almost in the day 1 slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 12, 2022 Cute LEWP for me tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Slight Risk now much larger for Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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