Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Invest 91L has been designated. It could be a nasty storm if it manages to get going. It already has impressive outflow, that is what this year has been featuring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 Chances for development slowly increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 This could be the season of Gallagher hurricanes if Karl is named!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 3, 2022 Not much holding this back. Shear is ok, not a lot of dry air, vorticity (orange) is there. Globals run it into SAmer \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) This is what happens when the GFS doesn't run it into South America Or the CMC Edited October 3, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 NHC not very optimistic, but remember, this is likely a Sleeper Wave that we managed to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Special TWO has come out. 40/60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Now slightly higher on the 5 day outlook, 40/70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Recon has found no LLC, but a broad system and winds up to 35 mph. Chances have jumped to 60/80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 5, 2022 0z NavGem furthest north (aka right) of the other models. They all skim the SA coast and smash CA with varying intensities. HWRF hits with >100mph winds and 957 pressure. HAFS and HMON lose it completely in the nested version. Other versions of HMON also don't develop it. Spaghetti all but two are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Invest 91L could be Julia, TD 12 may be a goner. Now up to 70/90% chance of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 Absolutely hugging the coast of South America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 This is now TD 13. Quote BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 67.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CURACAO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Riohacha. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in San Andres, Providencia, and the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast of Venezuela later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday: Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches. Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 Formation imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2022 Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 Now TD 13, Recon may find TS Julia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Julia is born. Quote BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NICARAGUA AND THE OFFSHORE COLOMBIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 73.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Nicaragua/Honduras border westward to Punta Patuca. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening, and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 7, 2022 Not the best looking but I guess qualifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 7, 2022 Looking for some rapid intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 7, 2022 Will have to see if this updates north is Julia strengthens. There still is some risk that this makes it into Campeche. Not great odds, but still a possibility. UK ensemble CMC ensemble Euro ensembles - not that the light blue is TD, green is TS, Yellow is Cat 1, Orange Cat 2. Euro keeps it TS max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 7, 2022 Seems like once this all coalesces there isn't much to stop it in the way of shear or dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2022 Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 Did Y'all see that insane convective burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 8, 2022 Author Share Posted October 8, 2022 Guess I'm going to track this myself, Julia is slowly getting stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 8, 2022 Author Share Posted October 8, 2022 Oh boy, she's a Hurricane Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 700 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Julia has become a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h) maximum sustained winds as it passes near San Andres and Providencia Islands. SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 81.7W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted October 9, 2022 LF appears to be imminent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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